It’s important to note that Alex Smalley is no slouch.
You’ll probably read things before Sunday’s final round about how Smalley ranks 78th in the world, or comparisons to Philadelphia’s Rocky, or even questions about how far back you have to go to find a major championship winner.
None of these remarks are fair to Smalley’s talent or even his current position in the game.
Anyone who watches golf stats regularly has likely known a lot about Smalley for quite some time. He began to make his mark on Tour in late 2022 and into 2023, and some of his ball-striking numbers were impressive. Since then, Smalley has appeared on several leaderboards and shown enough skill with his irons to be one of the best players in the world. But his short game has often let him down. In recent weeks, Smalley has been in some of the most solid form on the PGA Tour.
The main thing that has disappointed him has been the drop in the leaderboard on Sundays when he is competing. Now, he will have to avoid it in the biggest moment of his career.
Can Smalley keep his cool on Sunday?
My biggest memory of Smalley is the 2025 Players Championship. He was one of my picks that week and opened the tournament with rounds of 68 and 67. Smalley was briefly tied for the lead on Saturday and firmly in the mix heading into Sunday. After a birdie putt to get within one, he completely blew out and fell all the way to T14.
That’s been a bit of a theme for Smalley going into Sunday’s race. Only this season, he is 6 years oldth on the PGA Tour in average first-round scores but 41str in scoring the last round.
This will be uncharted territory for the Duke graduate. He has never won an OWGR sanctioned event. This is just his fifth major championship, with three of the other four being the last three PGA Championships.
It looked like Smalley might be out of the tournament early on Saturday. He bogeyed three of the first four holes and was essentially taken off the air until a late charge that ended with him birdieing seven of his last 12 holes.
I’m skeptical of his chances of making that turn again. Players need some time to adjust to this kind of focus. Smalley has been nervous in the past when competing, and those were usually in smaller tournaments with fewer fans and less packed fields.
Now he will have many of the best players in the world gunning for him in his first chance at a major championship. Smalley has been described by his coaches as the smartest player they have ever worked with and very much a “thinker”. While this certainly has its advantages, overthinking while the likes of Jon Rahm, Ludvig Aberg, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele and Scottie Scheffler are chasing you can be a recipe for disaster.
But he has a thing for her. Smalley has a two-shot lead with 18 holes to play on a course that doesn’t produce a ton of birdies or a ton of big numbers.
Smalley will need to improve his swing on Sunday
There will surely be a setback for Smalley on the greens in the final round.
Credit where it’s due—he’s made a nice improvement with the putter in 2026. But I can’t see him continuing to gain more than two strokes a round with the flat club, ranking 3st in the field. He will have to rely more on his ball-striking, which is usually the strength of his game. He’s been only slightly better than average in the field there so far, where he can actually make up some of the ground he might lose with the pitcher.
Good news for Smalley. There are many forms to rely on for this. He has been hit in close quarters in nine of his last 10 starts, including the No. 4 finishth on the ground in SG: Access to a T7 in Doral with a busy field.
Today, he was below average in both batting categories. With the pressure set to increase on the greens, Smalley absolutely needs to find more fairways and greens to make things easier for himself. Otherwise, he’s likely to see crowds gather in groups before him as some of golf’s best players compete in a major championship.
I expect one of the game’s elite players to come from behind and win on Sunday, but don’t be at all surprised if the underrated Smalley steps up and enters at that high level.
Main photo caption: Alex Smalley has 54-hole PGA lead. (GETTY IMAGES/Carl Recine)
