8 picks our experts love

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network dedicated to sports and sports betting. You can follow him on Twitter at @LasVegasGolferand you can read his picks below for the Farmers Insurance Open, which begins Wednesday in La Jolla, California. Along with Kannon’s recommended shows, you’ll also see data from Chirp Golf, a mobile app featuring Free-To-Play and Daily Fantasy golf contests where you can win money and prizes with every round and tournament.

The preseason is over and now it’s time for some great golf on the PGA Tour starting this Wednesday in beautiful La Jolla, California.

For many years in golf handicapping and betting, I’ve used the early weeks of the season to figure things out: who’s playing well, who’s not, as a way to ease into the swing of things, just as one. maybe with the preseason in other sports.

it always is Torrey Pines which I have used as the first week of the “regular season”, or when we start play for retention. For many years, Tiger Woods was always going to make this week his first “real” start of the season and the fields for what is now Open Farmers Insurance they were excellent. This year’s field isn’t bad, but it certainly lost some luster with Xander Schauffele pulling out with an injury and Collin Morikawa also deciding to spend this week along the coast just outside of San Diego.

The venue, however, remains one of the toughest tests the players face all year. The South Course at Torrey Pines, home of the 2008 US Open (Tiger Woods) and the 2021 US Open (Jon Rahm), spans nearly 7,800 yards. It’s a beast. Three of the four rounds will be played on the South Course and each player will play one round, either Wednesday or Thursday, on the North Course. The North Course is just under 7,300 yards and plays roughly two strokes easier than the South.

Not only is the South Course long, but it also features tight fairways and thick rough, making Total Driving – a combination of length and accuracy off the tee – one of the most important stats this week.

Of the 10 par 4s on the South Course, only one is less than 400 yards. The other nine average over 460 yards, so I looked at how players perform this week on those holes that fall in the 450-500 yard window. I also used Hole Proximity from 200 yards plus. A large number of approach shots will come from this distance, including three of the four par 3s that are over 200 yards.

Finally, I watched Scrambling and Strokes Gained: Putting on Poa Annua greens. Poa Annua is a common surface we see in California and especially in coastal streams. It’s a type of sponge grass that some players really struggle with. Scrambling has always been a big factor at Torrey Pines because a lot of greens will be missed when hitting so many long shots – and getting up and down without hitting a putt will go a long way towards one’s success this week.

Quail Hollow in Charlotte, NC, is always one of my linked courses this week because of the shared importance of Total Driving. Keep in mind, Quail Hollow will host the PGA Championship this May, so take notes this week in a similar test. I also used the Country Club of Jackson where they play the Sanderson Farms Championship. Vidanta Vallarta made the list, as did Corales Golf Club, Valhalla and Caves Valley, where they played the 2021 BMW Championship.

The list is long. I have played a total of eight goals this week, but only two are less than 50-1. I also each played for a top-20 finish.

8 betting picks for the Farmers Insurance Open

Keegan Bradley (22-1)

I played this early on Monday and since then I’ve seen better numbers, like closer to 25-1, so as always, buy. I’ve found Bradley’s game inspired lately and my feeling is that it flows from his being named Ryder Cup captain. He’s always been a great ball-striker and ranked 15th on Tour in Total Driving in 2024. This week, he ranks 30th in the field for drives earned over the last 36 rounds and is 19th in 450-500 yard par 4s. I mentioned the inspired show – Bradley won the BMW Championship back in August and just finished fifth in the Hero World Challenge in December. Two weeks ago, he finished sixth at the Sony Open. Bradley has four top-25 finishes here at Torrey Pines and three top-5 finishes. He has twice finished in the top 5 at the Sanderson Farms Championship.

Tony Debate (26-1)

If it’s not Jon Rahm or Tiger Woods, then “Mr. Torrey Pines” should be Tony Finau. No, he’s never won here, but in 10 visits, Finau has recorded three top-25 finishes and six top-10 finishes. He’s pretty much a machine here and because of that, I had to have him on the card. In three trips to Vidanta Vallarta for the Mexico Open, Finau has finished 2-1-13. He was 18th at the PGA Championship at Valhalla and finished 15th at the 2021 BMW Championship at Caves Valley. Over the past 36 rounds, he ranks second in the field for SG: Approach and 19th^th for good drives earned.

Aaron Ray (52-1)

Rai is coming off a 15th-place finish at The Sentry in Maui and his first PGA Tour win at the Wyndham Championship in August. He is extremely accurate off the tee and was ranked 47th in Total Driving on Tour last season. He has never missed a cut here at Torrey Pines and finished sixth in 2022. Over the past 36 rounds, Rai is ninth in the field for SG: Approach and is top 25 in both par 4s and scrambling.

Beau Hossler (55-1)

Hossler began his season last week at La Quinta, finishing 12th at American Express. Before that, he was hot at FedEx Fall, with two top-25 finishes, an 11th and a playoff loss at Sanderson Farms, where he also finished 10th in 2017. Hossler has two top-10 finishes here at the Farmers Insurance Open, including sixth last year, and was 10th at Vidanta Vallarta in 2023. If Hossler is feeling it from tee to the green this week, it could be a successful run in La Jolla as the short games are there. Over the last 36 rounds, he is 22nd in the field for Scrambling and 23rd for SG: Putting (Poa Annua).

JJ Spawn (60-1)

Spaun is very familiar with this golf course, having grown up in Los Angeles and attended San Diego State University. He has two tournaments under his belt already this season, finishing third at the Sony Open and 29th last week at the American Express. He has one top-10 finish here, as well as one top-25 and two top-30s at Quail Hollow. Spaun is no. 1 in this field for SG: Approaching over last 36 rounds, 42nd for best drives earned, 29th for closest to holes from 200 yards plus and is 17th in 450-500 yard Par 4s .

Gary Woodland (85-1)

Throughout his career, Woodland’s strength has always been in driving the golf ball. He also won a US Open on the Poa Annua greens on the coast of Pebble Beach. He finished 16th two weeks ago at the Sony Open and was 16th in October at the Sanderson Farms Championship. Speaking of 16, it will be Woodland’s 16th time playing the Farmers Insurance Open this season. His best finishes have been 9-10-12-18-20. He has also been in the top 20 twice and in the top 5 twice at Quail Hollow.

Harris English (110-1)

It’s almost fair for English when you look at his top results in some of our related courses. He’s been second here at Torrey Pines, third at Quail Hollow, fifth at Corales and sixth at Sanderson Farms. He was also 18th last year at Valhalla and finished 26th at Caves Valley in 2021. He’s another player for whom Total Driving has been a strength, ranking 12th on Tour in that category last season. In three of his last four starts during the FedEx Fall, English finished 6-9-14. In the last 36 rounds, he is ranked 37th in the field for SG: Putting (Poa Annua) and is third in Scrambling.

Henrik Norlander (160-1)

I have seen the number on the Norlander anywhere from 140-1 to 200-1. Yes, he’s certainly a long shot, but he makes sense as someone who certainly has the potential for success here this week. Like Rai, he is brutally accurate off the tee and ranked 55th on Tour last season in Total Driving. He is a tremendous ball-striker and ranks fourth in the field in 450-500 yard par 4s over the past 36 rounds. He has been as high as second here at Farmers, 16th at Quail Hollow, 13th at Vidanta Vallarta and has finished fourth twice and second once at the Sanderson Farms Championship.

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