US Open: Power rankings, betting odds and betting favorites

For each PGA Tour event, we’ll rank the top 10 players by odds to win, based on a weighted model, shape and course fit. Along the way, we’ll highlight some of our favorite bets.

This week, the tour heads to New York for the US Open at Shinnecock Hills on Long Island.

This week: US Open

• Date: June 18-21, 2026
• Location: Southampton, New York
• Course: Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
• How to watch: NBC, USA, Peacock
• Bag: 21 500 000 dollars
• Defending Champion: JJ Spaun

What skills does the course reward?

Shinnecock Hills was designed by William Flynn in 1931 and will play as a par 70 at more than 7,400 yards for this year’s US Open. Famously one of the largest and most difficult courses in the world, Shinnecock has hosted five US Opens and has never seen a winning score higher than 4-under.

We see many courses claim the title of an “American Links” course, but Shinnecock Hills is perhaps the greatest embodiment of it, especially with the expected 2026 configuration. Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore’s renovation in 2013 brought back many of those American Links elements, but the USGA probably messed it all up at the 2018 US Open. It was the tournament most famous for Phil Mickelson hitting his ball while he was still on the move and Zach Johnson confessing in an interview that the USGA had completely lost the course. No one was on par as Brooks Koepka took home his second US Open with a 1-over winning score.

It appears the USGA may have learned from its mistakes this year. The fairways are playing much wider (in keeping with the original renovation), and the greens are reported to be open and slower on Monday as the area expects strong winds and strong conditions throughout the week.

The wider fairways at Shinnecock should help open up the tournament to more players. The rough at Shinnecock is not graded, meaning a yard off the fairway can lead to a disastrous lie. Meanwhile, some of the fescue and stepped down approximately 30 yards off the freeway can be played. I expect the total drive and full ball handlers to have a big advantage again this week.

If the winds are as high as expected, iron play may be more difficult to predict. Many greens will be missed and some of the best regular iron players may struggle to fly their ball and find the greens at Shinnecock. I’m looking for players who can fly their ball well and find greens on tough, windy courses as the best approach game options.

On the green, Shinnecock plays more like Augusta than a typical US Open course. There is a lot of short grass around the greens here, and the massive fairways are often very level, as we saw in April. Creative scramblers (think Patrick Reed, Jordan Spieth) are likely to enjoy their time around these greens instead of many US Opens where the best scramblers are the ones who can take it out on the best.

Greens are a mix of Bent and Poa. With the rough conditions expected to be strong winds, I expect the putting to be very volatile and I wouldn’t recommend trying to predict who will get too hot with the gauge.

How the model works

The weighted pattern this week over the last 24 rounds is 20% SG: Off the Tee, 15% SG: Approach, 15% SG: Around the Green, 10% SG: Total (Wind/Hard), 10% SG: Putting (Bent/Poangey%) Grass).

Power ranking

(DraftKings Odds-Winning/Top 5/Top 10 with favorite choices in bold)

10. Justin Rose (+5300+830, +380)

Model order: 19^th

I struggled to pick last place here, as Ludvig Aberg, JJ Spaun and Tyrrell Hatton were all strongly considered, but it’s Rose who makes the most sense to me. The veteran always seems to bring his best to the majors, and a tough and tricky Shinnecock Hills should be right up his alley when he just needs to produce pars. Order 19^th in SG: P.

9. Bryson DeChambeau (+2900, +560, +270)

Model order: 17^th

DeChambeau will surely realize something this week after missing the cut at the Masters and the PGA. He still played great golf at LIV this year, but the irons and short game were disastrous in the majors. Shinnecock should suit him a bit better and can probably be bombed as he would prefer. Order 1^str in SG: THERE.

8. Patrick Reed (+4900, +760, +350)

Model order: 14^th

Reed has been quietly T12 and T10 in the first two races of the year, and surprisingly he played well at Shinnecock in 2018 when he finished 4^th. It looks like Reed checks all the boxes of what you want this week if the going gets really tough. If he can find some greens, he can be dangerous. The only complaint here is that Reed hasn’t played any non-major tournaments since early March. Rank 6^th in SG: ARG.

7. Tommy Fleetwood (+2400, +410+198)

Model order: 9^th

Runner-up at the 2018 US Open in Shinnecock, Fleetwood has gone from a youngster at that point to one of the best players in the world now. But he has yet to win that major championship. After a disappointing first two races, Fleetwood has found good form in his last two starts and should have a great chance of being a factor. Rank 7^th in avoiding bogeys.

6. Xander Schauffele (+1700, +315, +154)

Model order: 8^th

I’m still pretty uninspired by Schauffele’s form and play in 2026, but it’s impossible to ignore his overall form at the US Open. He’s never been worse than T14 at a US Open in nine tries, including seven top 10s. One of those was a T6 at Shinnecock when he was 24. This type of tournament clearly suits Schauffele, but I’m struggling to see that head-to-head win in his current game. Rank 8^th in SG: THERE.

5. Rory McIlroy (+970+205, +105)

Model order: 2^n.d

As in 2025 when Rory won the Masters, he hasn’t been at his best since winning back at Augusta in April. He missed the cut here in 2018, but after that year, he posted six consecutive top 10s at the US Open, including a pair of runner-up finishes in ’23 and ’24. He would probably be 2^n.d or 3^st for me if it weren’t for the predicted strong and windy conditions. Order 2^n.d in SG: THERE.

4. Matt Fitzpatrick (+2150, +375+182)

Model order: 7^th

Fitzpatrick got back on track last week in Canada by finishing runner-up. That followed an uneven stretch after the win at Harbor Town, with both his driver and player dropping out a bit. Fitzpatrick has enjoyed the US Open, winning the title in 2022 and adding a T12 here at Shinnecock in 2018. The tough conditions should suit him. Order 12^th in SG: APP.

3. Cameron Young (+2050, +375+186)

Model order: 5^th

Young has had a good time off since the PGA Championship, playing just once at the Memorial. He didn’t play well at Muirfield Village, which scares me a little with his overall form, but he’s been so good all year that Shinnecock feels like a good fit for him to get his first title. This will be a home game for the New Yorker, and he should have a great shot if he hits well. Order 13^th in SG: THERE.

2. Jon Rahm (+1050, +215, +108)

Model order: 4^th

Despite not winning, Rahm’s T2 at the PGA was a big step for him after several years of disappointing play at the majors. His form at LIV has also been excellent, which should make Rahm feel very comfortable as he tries to win a second US Open. He missed the cut here in 2018, but has since gotten much stronger on brutally tough courses like Shinnecock. Rank 10^th in SG: THERE.

1. Scottie Scheffler (+465+106, -182)

Model order: 1^str

Somehow it feels like Scheffler is being underrated going into his first career Grand Slam opportunity. Much of it is probably down to uncharacteristically poor play and even a poor attitude on the court, but if there’s one thing I know about the world No. 1, it’s that he often brings out his best just when anyone starts to doubt him. Shinnecock should be an ideal fit for Scheffler, especially if the wind blows and he’s still hitting it better than anyone lately. Order 1^str in SG: APP.

Top photo caption: Scottie Scheffler tees off during a practice round at Shinnecock. (GETTY IMAGES/Andrew Redington)