PGA Championship: Power rankings, betting odds and betting favorites

For each PGA Tour event, we’ll rank the top 10 players by odds to win, based on a weighted model, shape and course fit. Along the way, we’ll highlight some of our favorite bets.

This week, we’re headed to the Philadelphia area for the Aronimink PGA Championship.

The PGA Championship

• Date: May 14-17, 2026
• Location: Newtown Square, Pennsylvania
• Course: Aronimink Golf Club
• How to watch: CBS, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN+
• Bag: 19 000 000 dollars
• Defending Champion: Scottie Scheffler

What skills does the course reward?

The Aronimink Golf Club was designed by the legendary Donald Ross and opened for play in 1928. Gil Hanse renovated it in 2018 with an eye on the PGA Championship, and he extended it to nearly 7,400 yards as the Par 70 he has to play this week.

Located near Philadelphia, Aronimink is a classically styled Pennsylvania course, not unlike Oakmont, host of last year’s US Open. Aronimink won’t be nearly as difficult, but it should be a more balanced test than recent PGA Championships that have been susceptible to the bomb-and-gobble strategy.

We don’t have much course history to base ourselves on here. Aronimink hosted the BMW Championship in 2018 and the AT&T National in 2010 and 2011. Justin Rose was the standout in those tournaments, winning the AT&T in 2010 and losing in a playoff to Keegan Bradley in 2018. The leaderboard featured a variety of skills this week, with what was expected to be 201 skill sets this week.

Elite driving shouldn’t be as necessary as most PGAs, so finding fairways will be very valuable. Proximity from 150-200 yards should be the most important bucket as Aronimink won’t play terribly long, and accurate iron play will be the priority here, as coming up short or finding the wrong level should be very penalizing on these complex Ross greens.

Hitting will be very important, especially from the abundance of green bunkers and shaved areas that come into play on the back nine. I expect most players will struggle with the flat stick, so I won’t put too much emphasis on placement.

How the model works

The weighted pattern this week over the last 24 rounds is 25% SG: Approach, 15% SG: Overall, 15% SG: Around Green, 10% SG: Off Tee, 10% Good Drive %, 10% SG: Putting (Bend), 5% Proximity: 150-200% Sand %.

Power ranking

(DraftKings Odds-Winning/Top 5/Top 10 with favorite choices in bold)

10. Tyrrell Hatton (+6000, +830+390)

Model order: 1^str

Hatton runs the model, but take it with a grain of salt, as his stats are only based on recent championship starts. However, Hatton has been a factor in the last three championships, and he showed plenty of fireworks at the Masters with some incredible rounds. His game is perfectly suited to tough major championship golf, so I would expect him to be in the mix again at Aronimink. Rank 7^th in SG: THERE.

9. Bryson DeChambeau (+1850, +350, +182)

Model order: 17^th

After an MC at the Masters and a WD from LIV Mexico, DeChambeau got back on track with a 3^st last week in Virginia. It will be interesting to see how he approaches Aronimink, as I see a path where he can be overly aggressive off the tee and try to beat him, but he will need more accuracy from the wedges. Order 1^str in SG: THERE.

8. JJ Spaun (+9400+1225, +560)

Model order: 13^th

Why not Spaun? The winner at Oakmont last year should feel quite comfortable with Aronimink’s style. After struggling early in the year, he won at Texas and has recorded three consecutive top 25s in signature events, including a T5 last week at Quail Hollow. His irons have been as good as anyone in the world recently, so watch out for the world number 8. Ranking 2^n.d in SG: APP.

7. Jon Rahm (+1400, +260+134)

Model order: 11^th

Rahm quickly overcame the Masters disappointment with a win in Mexico City. But I can’t help but wonder if the pressure is mounting on him. Rahm has always struggled with too much pressure, and all these recent major disappointments are definitely getting to him. This is going to be a big week for Rahm. Rank 6^th in SG: THERE.

6. Patrick Reed (+8200+1075, +495)

Model order: 9^th

I’m not really sure why Reed is entering the PGA so overlooked. He was basically at the Masters and has been playing great golf all year. It may be that he hasn’t started since then, but that doesn’t bother me too much with Reed. This should be a great course for Reed where he doesn’t have to push it too much off the top and can let the irons and short game do the talking. Order 2^n.d in SG: ARG.

5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+2,300, +370+180)

Model order: 7^th

Fitzpatrick finally had a tough week with a T52 at Quail Hollow. His driver uncharacteristically struggled, missing 4 shots off the tee. That’s a bit concerning, but I’ll treat it as an outlier with such a big game as of late. He earned his only major on a classic course at Northeastern, so Fitzy should be feeling comfortable this week. Order 3^st in SG: ARG.

4. Ludwig Aberg (+2000+370, +190)

Model order: 4^th

Is this the week Aberg puts it all together? He’s been so good as of late, but he doesn’t have the wins to back it up. I absolutely love Aberg’s fit for Aronimink, as there can’t be anyone with a ceiling as high as him with the bars currently. Aberg can be aggressive here, and it could all come down to the player who has ever let him down in 2026. Rank 3^st in SG: APP.

3. Rory McIlroy (+910, +186, -102)

Model order: 2^n.d

Rory made his first start since winning the Masters last week at Quail Hollow. It was a mixed bag as he entered contention for the weekend but then had a miserable Saturday to fall out of contention. He played well here in 2018 and could absolutely have a chance to play another major and the first half of a calendar slam. Order 3^st in SG: THERE.

2. Cameron Young (+1650, +305, +156)

Model order: 3^st

Some might argue that it was better for Young not to win again leading into the PGA with back-to-back wins, but it’s preferable that he not experience the Sunday he did at Quail Hollow. He had one of the worst matches of his career, but has so much confidence in his game now that I can’t imagine it should bother him in Aronimink. Order 2^n.d in SG: THERE.

1. Scottie Scheffler (+385, -122-235)

Model order: 5^thScheffler now has three consecutive solo runner-up finishes, which is the first in PGA Tour history. He’s still a bit hampered by slow starts, but the match looks to be back on top form heading into his title defense. This type of balanced course is where I see Scheffler at his best, but I think he’ll be even harder to beat if the conditions remain a bit tougher. Order 4^th in SG: ARG.