Memorial Tournament: Power Rankings, Odds and Favorites

For each PGA Tour event, we’ll rank the top 10 players by odds to win, based on a weighted model, shape and course fit. Along the way, we’ll highlight some of our favorite bets.

This week, the tour heads north to Ohio to Jack’s Country for the Muirfield Village Memorial Tour in Dublin.

This Week: Memorial Tour

• Date: June 4-7, 2026
• Location: Dublin, Ohio
• Course: Muirfield Village Golf Club
• How to watch: CBS, Golf Channel, ESPN+
• Bag: 20 000 000 dollars
• Defending Champion: Scottie Scheffler (twice)

What skills does the course reward?

Muirfield Village is Jack Nicklaus’ most famous course and has hosted the Memorial Tournament since he founded the event in 1976. It has also hosted a Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup. The course plays as a Par 72 at about 7,500 yards after Nicklaus extended it by nearly 200 yards to continue testing the game’s best. Much of the space was put on the Par 5s, which now play as three-shot holes for many players when the tees are back.

Muirfield is a classic course with tree-lined fairways and intricate greens. As with most Nicklaus courses, there are plenty of problems to be found with water hazards on 11 holes and deep bunkers spread throughout the course. The redesign has beefed up the fairways as far as a player hits it and adds even more nightmare locations to challenge the world’s best players. The greens were changed from a mix of Poa Annua and Bent to pure Bent, which has made some of the fastest greens on Tour even faster.

It should come as no surprise to Nicklaus’ pride and joy that approach play is by far the biggest factor in claiming a victory. Winners like William McGirt and Jason Dufner need to show you can make it at the Memorial with the elite ball you hit alone. Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland have also graced the track as top iron players.

Driving distance will largely be ignored this week, but the overall SG: Off the Tee picture has been more predictive of success than you’d expect at the Memorial. The last ten winners have averaged around 8th in SG:OTT for the week, and it’s been a mix of accuracy and distance. I used to lean towards accuracy here, but with the narrower paths, you could argue that hitting hard and accepting the consequences might be more beneficial.

With tight contours on and around the greens, scrambling remains important at the Memorial. Placement hasn’t been very predictive of success here, with many underdogs getting the job done. Bogeys Avoided and SG: Par 5 are another pair of stats that have been predictive about Muirfield.

How the model works

The weighted pattern this week over the last 24 rounds is 25% SG: Approach, 15% SG: Around Green, 15% SG: Off Tee, 10% SG: Putting (Bend), 10% Greens in Regulation %, 10% SG: Par 5, 10% Bogey Avoidance .5% 1-4 and .

Power ranking

(DraftKings Odds-Winning/Top 5/Top 10 with favorite choices in bold)

10. Alex Smalley (+6000+860, +365)

Model order: 6^th

I think this climb from Smalley is serious and I wouldn’t be surprised if it continues all summer. Smalley has the ability to be the best player in the world, and his improvement on and around the green makes him a dangerous player. That’s a second course, and that’s what the Duke product has been doing so well lately. Order 3^st in GIR%.

9. Xander Schauffele (+1700, +300, +138)

Model order: 7^th

Schauffele just hasn’t moved me lately. He seemed to make a turnaround at the end of the Florida Swing, but it remains more of the same with Schauffele seemingly always in the mix but rarely deep in contention on Sunday. He also has just one top 10 at the Memorial in his career and hasn’t been hitting well lately. Order 4^th in SG: THERE.

8. Russell Henley (+2000, +330, +150)

Model order: 10^th

Somehow Henley came out of nowhere to win at the Colonial after struggling a bit since his T3 at the Masters. That lackluster game was led by rare iron-game struggles from the Georgia Bulldog, who made up for it strongly as he won more than 8 shots on the approach in his win. Henley was T5 at the Memorial last year and should be a good course if the form continues. Rank 7^th in avoiding bogeys.

7. Patrick Cantlay (+2700, +435+196)

Model order: 9^th

Cantlay absolutely loves Muirfield Village. He won here in 2019 and 2021 and has added a pair of top-5 finishes around them. Although he has been quiet over the last couple of years, Cantlay has been playing solid golf lately and has produced some of the ball hitting that once made him one of the best players in the game. He just needs to understand the player. Order 2^n.d in SG: ARG.

6. Rory McIlroy (+980, +194, -108)

Model order: 2^n.d

This is one of those rare prestigious tournaments that McIlroy has yet to take down in his career. He has come close of late, with T5, T15 and T7 finishes in his last three attempts. It’s not the best course for his game, but the added length and less emphasis on accuracy off the tee certainly gives him a better chance. Order 1^str in SG: THERE.

5. JJ Spaun (+4100+630, +270)

Model order: 8^th

Spaun keeps getting overlooked for whatever reason, but the reality now is that when he puts it right, he’s likely to be in contention at the weekend. Iron play has been excellent for months now, and Memorial works well for Spaun’s playstyle, despite the lack of results here. With some recent improvements on the greens, Spaun should often be a factor. Order 3^st in SG: APP.

4. Ludvig Aberg (+1600, +290+136)

Model order: 5^th

The Swede continues his solid play, but didn’t have a chance to win Sunday at Colonial thanks to a pretty average week with the irons. Muirfield should be a more suitable course for Aberg, who can use his rare blend of power and accuracy to attack in ways most players on the court cannot. He has been T5 and T16 here in his two attempts and should like his chances again if the player cooperates. Rank 6^th in SG: APP.

3. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1950, +330+150)

Model order: 4^th

Fitzpatrick has three top 10s at the Memorial since 2020 and seems to like the course a lot with his game. After a bad week at Quail Hollow, the Englishman got things back on track with a strong T14 at the PGA Championship, despite never doing much on the greens. This is a tournament I’d be surprised if Fitzpatrick never won. Order 1^str in SG: ARG.

2. Cameron Young (+1425, +260, +122)

Model order: 3^st

After a crazy streak of short game success by Young that helped him win The Players and Cadillac, Young has finally run into some trouble both on and around the green in his last two starts that kept him from competing on Sunday. I would expect that to be the main thing to watch from him week in and week out because the ball he hits is world class. Order 2^n.d in SG: THERE.

1. Scottie Scheffler (+310-148, -320)

Model order: 1^str

The two-time defending champion has never finished worse than 3rd at the Memorial^st at Muirfield Village from 2020. It’s a course that feels tailored to his abilities, and it certainly showed in the results. A poor putter at the PGA resulted in a T14 finish for Scheffler, but otherwise, he continues to be on point every Sunday and is sure to win again soon. Order 1^str in SG: APP.

Who do you like this week at Memorial? Let me know below in the comments.