Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a host and regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network dedicated to sports and sports betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow Brady on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the 2026 US Open, which starts on Thursday.
And here we are, once again, on the threshold of a major championship. It feels like we’ve been building towards this for some time. Did the look for the 2026 US Open begin soon after? Aaron Rai hoisted the Wanamaker Trophy in Aronimink last month? Did it start at Colonial Country Club when we noticed this the course could be a sign of US Open-type things to come? It probably started eight years ago, after Brooks Koepka carded a 72nd to finish 1-over and win his second straight United States Open — the last time we were at Shinnecock Hills on Father’s Day for the US National Championship.
Located on the South Fork of Long Island in Southampton, New York, Shinnecock Hills is one of the most highly rated golf courses in the world. It is one of the USGA’s original five founding golf courses, and this Thursday will mark the sixth time it has hosted a US Open. Exposed to all the elements, the golf course is virtually treeless and is located less than 20 miles south of Peconic Bay and just a few miles north of the Atlantic Ocean. It makes for a brutal test of sandy, windswept, coastal, links-style golf that has seen just three players finish under par in the last four US Opens it has hosted.
While we can laud its demands and the level of difficulty it presents for what many consider golf’s most difficult championship of all, the USGA has also been criticized for its mismanagement of Shinnecock in 2018 and, especially, the US Open in 2004. It’s a very difficult and delicate balance: trying to bring a golf course to its extreme location, without checking. invites weather changes almost immediately, the battle with Mother Nature can very easily be a losing one.
Fast forward to 2026 and we have a nearly 50-yard fairway course, five inches in the rough, and “schmutz” or “gunch,” also known as knee-high heather and fescue that stands one step away from the rough and will swallow both US Championship golf balls. The point is, it seems like the USGA has given itself too much latitude on the fairways to allow them to get hard and fast enough without being unfair. The greens are very large, sloping and undulating, mostly Poa Annua with some Bentgrass mixed in. What’s interesting about the greens, though, is the fact that they play so “small.” Despite the actual square footage being much higher than the tournament average, with all the bumps, humps and shaved areas of the runoff, the proper little landing areas make hitting and staying on the greens two very different and challenging pieces of the puzzle. Add in wind, sunshine, lack of humidity and green speed, and there’s the balance the USGA is trying to negotiate between now and Sunday night.
It all comes down to the winning score number that Jeff Sherman (@Golfodds) posted the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook of Under/Over 278.5, which translates to 1.5 under par.
The forecast calls for temperatures to reach the mid 70s to low 80s, with a few chances for rain here and there and plenty of wind throughout the four days, with Thursday and Friday looking to be the windiest, with gusts better than 30 MPH possible. Yes, I imagine there will be carnage – but let’s hope the USGA can dance with Mother Nature and together they can provide the perfect test.
We noticed two weeks ago in Our early betting guide Our positions on Xander Schauffele (20-1), Tommy Fleetwood (25-1), Matt Fitzpatrick (25-1) and our long game with Daniel Berger (180-1). Since then I have added three more moderately priced selections and one more photograph.
Russell Henley (45-1)
Each season, I like to see who does well at the Colonial as I believe it can translate to US Open success. If you can’t beat ’em, join ’em, I guess, as it was Henley who overcame our picks of Eric Cole, Ryan Gerard and Mac Meissner to win in Fort Worth late last month.
Henley is a shorter, plodder-type player, but he’s also won at Bay Hill, struggled at Augusta National and Torrey Pines, and in the last five years or so, has ascended to one of the best players on the planet. He was 10th last year at Royal Portrush and fifth the year before at Royal Troon. Henley finished 10th last summer at Oakmont and was seventh the year before at Pinehurst. He is No. 1 on the PGA Tour in both Driving Accuracy and Scrambling. He is 33rd in Strokes Gained: Putting and ranks second in Proximity from 150-175 yards. His next act could be a major championship win.
Patrick Reed (60-1)
Reed has never come off the page for me as a US Open type of player. Jim Furyk, Jeff Maggert, Corey Pavin, Lee Janzen type stuff, right? Reed is more of an imaginative, crafty, short-game wizard than a fairway and greens navigator — but Shinnecock is a different kind of beast than, say, a more traditional US Open setup like an Olympic Club.
The coastal, windswept location and links-style layout make it very similar to the Open Championship. The creativity required around these green complexes is very similar to the Master. And this is where Reed checks the boxes. With wide fairways and an emphasis on the short game, this is a Patrick Reed wheel – as evidenced by his fourth-place finish here in 2018. Reed was also 12th at Royal Troon in 2016 and has finished in the top 10 three times at the Valspar Championship – another of our affiliated courses – including twice as runner-up. Despite a very abbreviated game program as he returns to the PGA Tour after leaving the LIV circuit, Reed finished 12th at The Masters and 10th at the PGA Championship last month. I expect him to fight again this week.
Kurt Kitayama (90-1)
Saw the UNLV Rebel here in Las Vegas when I was out running some errands last weekend. As we continue our weekly search for outright winners, maybe this was an attempt to put a clue right in front of my face. I’m not sure if I believe in these things, but the show makes absolute sense in my mind – if the young man can find a hot player for a few days.
Kitayama is currently playing great golf, with top-10 finishes at two Signature Events – Harbor Town and Doral – followed by a 10th-place finish at the PGA Championship and a top-25 finish at The Memorial two weeks ago. He is one of the best in the game in terms of Ball Striking, Total Driving, Greens in regulation and proximity from 150-200 yards. And actually, his shortstop numbers aren’t terrible. Being able to consistently find fairways and greens should give Kitayama an excellent chance. If he can score and shoot average or better, I believe he is a great shot in a big number. In my mind, he is very similar to JJ Spaun from 2025 Oakmont.
I’ve been tempted to add another selection here, playing Viktor Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton, Patrick Cantlay, etc., but I’ve decided to wait until Friday or even Saturday night and see if there’s a game within the game that makes sense. So I’m saving some bullets for later – if necessary – but hopefully we’ll be able to pull through and dance with the USGA and Mother Nature to have a perfect ride.
Here are the four initial picks from our early betting preview.
Tommy Fleetwood (25-1)
On May 17, I played my first game at the US Open to win the championship. Fleetwood it was listed at 20-1 almost everywhere and I didn’t like that number. I saw 25 pop up and jumped on it. As it currently stands, 28-1 or 30-1 seems readily available. Fleetwood shot a course-record 63 on Sunday in 2018 to nearly catch Koepka, ending up one shot short. One could argue that the US Open has been Fleetwood’s best championship, with three top-five finishes and a 16th at Pinehurst in 2024. The Englishman has also been 16th twice and third once at the Valspar Championship. He was fifth at Southern Hills in 2022. Fleetwood ranks ninth on Tour in driving accuracy, 56th in SG: Approach and sixth in SG: Around the Green. If the surface’s similar putting terrain means anything — and it does — Fleetwood was fourth this year at Pebble Beach and seventh at Riviera.
Matt Fitzpatrick (25-1)
Four days after I did a show at Fleetwood, I added another Englishman to the card. Fitzpatrick has won three times already this season, including the Valspar Championship, and has won the US Open in 2022. Like Fleetwood, he also finished fifth at Southern Hills in 2022. He is currently ranked fourth on Tour in SG: Approach, eighth for SG: Around the Green, seventh in Greens in Adjustment and sixth in Driving. Fitzpatrick finished 12th at Shinnecock in 2018.
Xander Schauffele (20-1)
Schauffele won two majors in 2024 — the PGA Championship and the Open Championship (at Royal Troon, by the way) — but like Fleetwood, his most successful major of his entire career might as well be the US Open. He was sixth at Shinnecock in 2018. He has played in the national championship nine times and has never missed it. His worst finish is 14th, and he has been in the top 10 seven times. He was seventh at Pinehurst in 2024 and 13th at Southern Hills in 2022, and has gone 12-5-12-4 in four straight visits to the Valspar Championship. Schauffele ranks 18th on Tour in total driving, 29th in SG: Approach, 28th in SG: Putting and 11th in Scrambling.
Daniel Berger (180-1)
Time for a long bomb. I have seen anywhere from 100-1 to 200-1 Berger to win the 2026 US Open. He was sixth at Shinnecock in 2018 and was seventh at Torrey Pines (poa annua greens) at the 2021 US Open. Speaking of poa annua, Berger also has a win at Pebble Beach. We noted in our preview of the Charles Schwab Challenge that Colonial Country Club can be a good indicator of potential US Open success, and Berger has won at Colonial. He finished 11th at Valspar and was eighth at Royal St. Feels like a pretty good resume for a player in the 200-1 neighborhood.
We’ll be back on June 16 for our full card for the 126th US Open and the third major of 2026.
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