Shinnecock Hills has been the site of some of the most memorable US Opens, though not always for the best reasons.
You may remember the third round in 2018.
In strong, windy conditions, Shinnecock’s greens baked and were very close to unplayable as the afternoon wore on. Phil Mickelson famously hit his ball as he was teeing off on the 13thth green to avoid rolling off the surface. He went on to shoot 81 on a day where the scoring average was 75.3 (+5.3). Zach Johnson made waves in a post-round interview where he said the USGA had “lost course.”
Brooks Koepka won the tournament at 1-over.
And in 2004, the USGA came under a lot of scrutiny for their setup — especially on the par-3 7th where the green got so fast that Mickelson and others purposely played into the greenside bunker since keeping the green off the tee wasn’t much of an option. During the final round, 28 golfers failed to break 80. The average score was 78.7 (this is not a typo).
Of the four U.S. Opens at Shinnecock since 1986, only three players — Retief Goosen, Mickelson and Raymond Floyd — have broken the par for the tournament. This is definitely one of, if not, the toughest US Open courses THE the most difficult.
So what should we expect from Shinnecock this time around?
At first glance, things seem easier.
Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore renovated Shinnecock in 2013 to expand the greens back to their intended sizes and restore some of the width to the fairways. But the USGA denied some of that width for the 2018 US Open. The fairways were narrowed wide, which made for a tougher and, in my opinion, more boring US Open.
The fairways are now shortened to Crenshaw and Coore’s target for this week’s US Open – about 48 yards on average – which should allow more fairways to be hit and more strategy employed by players looking for better angles on these treacherous greens.
I like this change, as the incredibly tight fairways at the US Open can often get monotonous. Shinnecock is considered one of the best courses on the planet because of its complex greens. These greens are not highlighted if many of the approach shots are hacked by heavy roughness.
Not to mention, while many people believe that narrow roads hurt bombers and allow shorter drivers to struggle, often the opposite is true. When the fairways are too tight, it causes even the most accurate drivers to miss machines, which actually encourages the longer shots to be even more aggressive and appear to have wedges in hand that can handle the thick rough. We saw it in full force at Winged Foot when Bryson DeChambeau defeated Matthew Wolff.
But while the wider fairways and softer, slower greens should make Shinnecock play easier this week, Mother Nature has another idea.
The forecast for Southampton, New York, this week looks great. But it also seems to really test the USGA on how it lays out the course. Winds are expected to remain above 20 mph through Thursday, with gusts as high as 40 mph. The piles look like they will be quiet over 20mph on Friday and Saturday, before Sunday settles down for what could be an exciting lower-scoring final round.
No rain is expected, which means conditions could get extremely rough with strong winds.
The expectation is for the USGA to water the course around noon each round, a point players like Rory McIlroy made during a press conference Tuesday (McIlroy noted that the practice of watering the greens during the day is common practice at Shinnecock for the members’ game).
Ultimately, we expect the USGA to be very careful with Shinnecock. Green speed will be lower, especially in anticipation of strong winds.
“We could brutalize this place the next few days if we wanted to,” said John Bodenhamer of the USGA. “We’re not talking about it. We really want it to be right and we want it to be what Shinnecock Hills has always been. It’s going to be pretty tough. We’ve pulled every lever we can to make it right and I think that’s a message we really want to get out there.”
Despite this, Shinnecock could still play devilishly tough in these winds. The greens are very heavy, and it is a fully exposed course that will feel all the elements, especially on some of the higher greens.
Where the USGA will have to be careful
10th and 11th the greens are already getting some headlines.
Par-3 11th it’s the shortest hole on the course, but it’s also one of the most exposed with an upside-down bowl-shaped green. Practice round videos have already shown slow-spinning balls trickling up the green on putts and chips.
And the aforementioned par-3 7thth The redan design can also be almost unplayable once again in strong winds, especially if the wind is coming from the south and even well-played shots on the course are not holding.
The USGA will also have to be careful when selecting tees on some of the longer par 4s that can play into the wind and be almost unreachable in two shots.
We have the course and forecast available for an all-timer this week at Shinnecock – but, just like in 2018, there will be a very hard line for the USGA not to cross with the setup.
My hope is that the USGA allows the course to be the star of this week. Keep some water in the greens and don’t overcook them. The conditions and elements will test the players a lot, and we don’t need to see the unforgettable climax of someone hitting a spin ball.
If the current wind forecast holds true, I’d be surprised if anyone breaks the norm for the tournament.
What do you think will be the result of the victory? Let me know below in the comments.
Top Photo Caption: There will be a lot of water added to the greens this week. (GETTY IMAGES/Warren Little)
