SOUTHAMPTON, NY – Do you have any idea, dear reader, how difficult? THIS is the golf course? In the last four steps of the US Opens here at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club – from 1986 to 2018 – exactly THREE players have finished under par. Phil Mickelson played hockey on the 13th green in 2018. Lee Trevino once called the 156-yard par-3 11th — with its small green already drawing players on Monday — “the shortest par 5 in golf.”
Although the only thing more difficult than the golf course — other than battling traffic to get to it — might be trying to predict who will win the 126th US Open. But we will try anyway. Welcome to our one-sided, slightly messy, but mostly logical levels of the US Open, where we’ll dig through the contenders and, ultimately, pick a winner. And we leave…
Obligatory mention of two favorites
Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy
Do you know when Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler last finished outside the top 20? The Players Championship, in March. Since then, Rory has won the Masters and Scottie has four first-place finishes in three. Scheffler needs a US Open win to complete her career Grand Slam. Rory is looking for his second US Open trophy. Shinnecock sets up well for both players, who are excellent passers of the ball and rarely play themselves out of the league. They are the two best players in the world for a reason. Also, Scheffler’s 30th birthday? It’s Sunday.
A guy we really like who shot 63 the last time he played here
Tommy Fleetwood
Before Tommy Fleetwood really became Tommy Fleetwood, he closed out the 2018 US Open at Shinny with a brilliant final round of 63, which ended up edging out winner Brooks Koepka. He finally got his first win on the PGA Tour last year and has six top 10s this season. A great iron player who knows how to play in the wind, this is the perfect setup for him. Is this number 1 major?
A few other favorites we really like
Matt Fitzpatrick
Wyndham Clarke
Cameron Young
This group has been cook‘, people. Fitzpatrick and Young are the frontrunners for Player of the Year (five combined wins, including Fitzpatrick’s win with his brother in Zurich, which we’re not sure should really count, but whatever). Young has tuned into a legitimate threat every week — he also dominated 60 miles away on Bethpage Black during the Ryder Cup last fall — and Fitzpatrick has already won a US Open and loves these kinds of tests while everyone else seems to be more nervous about them. Clark, another US Open winner, faced a locker this time last year and has been looking for better results since then, but he has turned things around and could be the hottest player entering the week. After his Byron Nelson win last month, he finished third at the Memorial and was in contention at the RBC Canadian Open last week before eventually finishing 11th.
A sneaky pick I particularly like
Tyrrell Hatton
He placed sixth here eight years ago. He is wayyyy better now He tied for 4th at Oakmont last year. US Opens – especially those at Shinnecock Hills – drive players crazy (see: Mickelson, Phil). But Hatton is already mad.
Shinnecock Hills Greens
No. 1-18
As a rule, someone is going to win this golf tournament, but the big winner until then (or even after) may be Shinnecock Hills and its devilish greens that are going a little slower than usual due to the strong winds in the forecast, but are actually still very strong. Fitzpatrick, who enjoys these types of events, said he was disappointed they dropped the greens on Monday. Regardless of who wins, the course and greens will always be a story here.
LIV guys, we are Bulgarian
Jon Rahm
A winner of the 2021 US Open at Torrey Pines, Rahm has played well this year and you could even argue that he’s out to prove he shouldn’t be forgotten despite his league’s ongoing concerns.
LIV guys we are less Bulgarian
Bryson DeChambeau
Cameron Smith
Bryson has missed the cut in both key starts this year, and we’re not sure Shinnecock is a good fit for his strong game. (The fairways are wide, but if you miss them, they’re dead.) Smith played well at the PGA, but was that too small of a sample size?
Protecting champions with damage problems
Brooks Koepka
Koepka won his second straight US Open the last time this tournament was played here, and he’ll show you he’s mentally (and maybe physically) tougher than most of these fools. (Suggestion Brooks fills out the 20 infielders in Shinnecock’s locker room.) But Brooks withdrew before the final round of the RBC Canadian Open two days ago with a hand injury and said Tuesday that he is improving day by day. Will it bother him though? “I don’t know what I’ve done,” he said Tuesday. “It just felt like it was really weak and kind of tingly like you hit your funny bone. That’s how it felt in my ring finger and my pinky.”
We haven’t named the other US Open winners yet, but we think they have a shot at winning
JJ Spaun
Justin Rose
Gary Woodland
JJ Spaun is this week’s defending champion and has already won this season – and, ahemexcuse the shameless plug, also has the most interesting coach in the game — and Justin Rose continues to play great golf well into his 40s. Woodland has been solid and his win earlier this season has been one of the best stories of the year.
Guys playing in their 100th straight major
Adam Scott
one-HUNDRED right. Happy Adam. This is extremely impressive. Here’s a rundown of his insane career: 74 cuts made, 45 top 25s, 20 top 10s and, of course, winning the 2013 Masters.
3 guys we didn’t mention who finished in the top 10 here in 2018
Dustin Johnson
Patrick Reed
Daniel Berger
While we don’t think DJ is ready to turn back the clock and find that form, we’re loving P Reed this week. You should too.
2 guys trending?
Bud Cauley
Viktor Hovland
Cauley won Sunday’s RBC Canadian Open, just his first as a pro, and Hovland finished third — his best finish of the season so far. But is this a sign of good things to come or a special thing?
Jordan Spieth level
Jordan Spieth
My first major I ever covered was won by Jordan Spieth, back at Chambers Bay in 2016. I don’t think he’ll win this week, but time flies for the guy.
Other guys who are intriguing and have already earned degrees
Xander Schauffele
Collin Morikawa
Justin Thomas
Would it surprise you if any of these guys won? No, you won’t. Xander has played nine US Opens and has never finished worse than 14th.
Other guys who are intriguing and haven’t earned degrees yet
Viktor Hovland
Akshay Bhatia
Patrick Cantlay
Russell Henley
Ludwig Aberg
Chris Gotterup
Aberg might be the most intriguing name among intriguing names without a degree. Henley won a few weeks ago, is ranked 5th in the world and can walk into any restaurant outside his home town and not be recognized as Russell Henley, which probably makes Rory, Jordan and Tiger extremely jealous.
The boys should probably be mentioned, but they didn’t fit into other categories
Shane Lowry
Rickie Fowler
Brian Harman
Robert MacIntyre
Hideki Matsuyama
Aaron Ray
Sam Burns
A flyer at the Lowry, anyone?
Guys we like who are playing in their first US Opens
(blank space)
Bad news, newbies – the last player to win a US Open on their first try was Francis Ouimet… in 1913. It’s not going to happen.
Interesting Alex
Alex Smalley
Alex Fitzpatrick
Both have played well this year and one (Smalley) had a taste of major contention already this season (and finished T3 at the Charles Schwab two weeks after his close call at the PGA). The other Alex has continued to prove he belongs on the Big Tour after becoming a full-time member a few months ago.
Older and younger players
Padraig Harrington
Miles Russell
I don’t necessarily think either of these guys will win, but it’s always fun to highlight the oldest (Padraig Harrington, 54) and youngest (Miles Russell, 17) players on the field. The oldest Open winner was Hale Irwin at 45 and the youngest was John McDermott at 19.
The Jacksons
Jackson Koivun
Jackson Suber
Jackson from Paris
Jackson Herrington
Jackson Ormond
The Jackson 5 is a mix of pros and amateurs, though that’s mostly because 3 percent of the 156-player field is named Jackson. One, however, is worth highlighting for now, and that’s Koivun, who turned pro on Monday to bow out for three sensational years at Auburn. In his nine PGA Tour starts as an amateur, he made seven cuts and finished in the top 10 three times. There is a lot of intrigue around him and we will be seeing a lot more of him on our televisions. A good Jackson indeed.
And the winner is……
The last time we had a European win at the US Open, Matt Fitzpatrick lifted the trophy at Brookline in 2022. Now he does it again, finishing once level and edging out guys like Scheffler and Fleetwood to win his second major title. Scheffler was my pick until Sunday, but after Fitzpatrick finished second in Canada, it was enough to convince me to go with the hot hand who likes these tough conditions. Will it actually happen? Now, we wait.
