With nine different athletes winning the last nine outdoor world titles, can anyone take control of the men’s 1500m? Cathal Denhy explores why the event has become so tough, and the tools needed to get the job done at the highest level.
It is an event whose dominance has become impossible. The only sure thing ahead of the men’s 1,500m final in recent years is that nothing is certain, with frequent upsets and race chances elsewhere in a theatrical, unscripted, virtually uncompetitive sport. Hands up who called the one-two-three in Tokyo last year.
In addition to having many colorful personalities at its cutting edge, the event’s ever-changing lineup of champions is one of the reasons it makes for such compelling viewing. It’s surprisingly hard to get to the top, but much harder to stay there.
The last nine global outdoor titles have been won by nine different athletes, with Asbel Kiprop, later banned for EPO use, the last man to retain the title in 2015. It’s a different story on the women’s side, who remain under the spell of the greatest female 1500m runner of all time.
Faith Kipyegon has won 7 of eight women’s outdoor world finals in the last decade, her only loss at the 2019 world finals in Doha since Sifan Hassan returned from maternity leave a few months ago.
Kipyegon is certainly a privilege to watch, but his unparalleled ability has made recent finals a bit predictable. No one can run fast enough in the first three laps to trouble the world record holder, and no one can match his acceleration in the last 300m. Not yet.
On the men’s side, the dynamics are different. While self-assured individuals like Jakob Ingebrigtsen, Josh Kerr and Cole Hawker may consider themselves the top dog, the reality is that no one has been able to stay on top for long.
It speaks to the depth and quality of the event, but also to how difficult the 1500m puzzle is to solve, requiring a delicate balance of world-class endurance, vicious finishing speed, a keen tactical awareness and often a bit of luck.
What does it take to win? There are a lot of variables at play here, with each race playing out a little differently. Shoe technology and running surfaces have also improved, while breakthroughs in the bicarbonate of soda delivery method mean it can now be (and is) used by many elite middle-distance runners. The popularization of double-threshold training may also play a role.
But whatever the reasons, the bar is being raised, and never has it been higher than at the Paris Olympics, where Cole Hawker had to do something no athlete in history has done in a major final. ran the last 300m in 39 seconds in a 3:27 race. In such competitions early fast pace. Ingebrigtsen covered the 400m in 54.82 and the 800m in 1:51.38, now the standard and a vicious move. But can any athlete of this generation embark on a run of dominance? To do this, they must develop in four key areas.
Staying healthy
Between his 2022 world title in Oregon and his silver medal in Tokyo last year, Jake Wightman’s brilliance was often marred by injuries, from foot to calf and hip problems. Kerr’s bid to retain his world title was scuppered by a calf tear last year, while Ingebrigtsen overshadowed his former self with an Achilles injury last summer that forced him to go under the knife. Meanwhile, rising star, tipped by many as the next champion in waiting, Nils Laros, is yet to return to racing after last year’s world championships where he was injured in the 5000m.
The problem. Competing at that level is extremely bad and getting injured at some point in the year is the norm, not the exception. Training for the 1500m requires a decent portion of volume combined with sprint work that can bring athletes close to peak sprint speed. A poorly timed bout of tendonitis and a few weeks of missed training can be all it takes for a one percent drop in performance. In the 1500m it’s two seconds. The difference between first and 12th in last year’s world finals. Only 1.7 seconds. Finals are razor sharp and the only way to win consistently is through long-term consistency of training; much easier said than done.
World Class Power 3km/5km
It’s been almost a decade since Matt Centrowitz raced to Rio Olympic 1500m glory, clocking a final lap of 50.62 seconds to win in 3:50:00. But the intervening years since then have seen a radical change in the way major outdoor finals are run, with two athletes largely responsible: Cheruiot and Ingebrigtsen.
Cheruiyot was so dominant on the circuit in 2019 that he employed a simple strategy in the world finals, riding through the armory to win by more than two seconds in 3:29.26. But two years later in Tokyo he had someone who could stay with him and surpass him in Ingebrigtsen; The 20-year-old Norwegian won in an Olympic record 3:28.32.
Their victories and tactics sent a message to their rivals. be ready to make it to the 3:30 final or forget about the gold. A lot of people could do it on the circuit, but to do it in the championship without the pacers in your third race in four or five days is a lot harder.
The message was heard. Wightman and Hawker, who were sixth and 10th in the Tokyo final, have both focused heavily on developing strength over the distance in the years since, allowing both to be on the shoulders of the leaders to better use their strokes in the final 200m. Kerr did the same, running a 62-minute half marathon between the 2023 world champion and the 2024 Olympic silver medalist.
Ingebrigtsen’s absence from last year’s world finals meant it became a more traditional, fast race, but with the Norwegian’s only chink in his 800m ability, several races featuring him are likely to go the same way in the coming seasons. Those chasing victory will have to be strong enough to go with him, even if, as in Paris, he moves at a world record pace.
Brutal blow
In a race like last year’s world final, won in a modest 3:34.10, top speed remains a priceless commodity. Isaac Nader had it in abundance, running a stunning final 100m of 12.29 seconds to move from fifth to first. We could see more finals like this on the way to Los Angeles 2028.
Ingebrigtsen has been steadily coming back from injury and, while every athlete’s journey is unique, a worrying trend he wants to avoid is the fate of his older brothers Henrik and Philipp, who both peaked in their early 20s and were unable to reproduce that level later due to injuries.
Jacob will be 26 in September and has many years of great racing ahead of him. But, if the Norwegian doesn’t rise to the same heights, it’s unlikely we’ll see him employ such a tactic in major finals, given that the chances of it working will be greatly reduced.
Even at his best, recent history has shown him just how difficult it is to shake the likes of Kerr, Hawker and Wightman. It would not be a shock if Ingebrigtsen focuses on the 5000m and 10,000m if he feels he can no longer win gold in his favorite event, leading to the bigger 1500m finals being similar to the recent World Indoors where former 800m specialist Mariano Garcia took gold in 3:39.63. In such a race, speed will be the ultimate weapon.
Tactical accuracy
Athletes with the best combination in the above categories? Hawker: He’s stayed mostly healthy the last two years, has a wicked finishing stroke in addition to great power, with a 7:23 3000m PB. But the US star has one notable weakness: race tactics.
It’s an odd thing to say about the reigning Olympian and world champion, but Hawker has made a habit of being in the wrong place at the focal point of major finals. In last year’s world 5000m final, he was only 12th, trapped on the inside, with a lap to run, his legs letting him out of jail in the last 300m.
His desire to go the inside route in the 1500m semi-final in Tokyo cost him a disqualification, even though he had plenty in the tank to go wide and still qualify. Something similar happened in the 1,500m at the US Indoor Championships in February, where Hawker stayed on the inside and, as a result, went from second to sixth in the penultimate heat before eventually missing out on the US team.
His rivals are aware of that trait, and in the recent world indoor 3000m final, Kerr, who always has a knack for being in the right place up to 200m, used it masterfully. He positioned himself right at Hawker to run from 600m to 350m, keeping him in the box, then stole a look to the left with a lap to go. Seeing Hawker (again) in trouble in traffic, Kerr launched his leg early, stealing a few metres, which later proved the difference between gold and silver, and Hawker had to pass four other athletes before pouncing on Kerr too late.
Hawker later explained his thinking, saying: Asked if he studied past races, he said: “Yes, quite often. Not so much the races I don’t win.”
It was a puzzling statement. Given his strength in every other department, taking tactical lessons from the races he got wrong, it’s clear the US star could be harder to beat.
Of course, nobody gets it right every time, and Ingebrigtsen deeply regretted his approach in Paris, running the first 400 meters two seconds faster than planned, leaving him bankrupt for a final battle with Kerr and Hawker, whose risk taking the shortest route to the finish paid off in the biggest race.
With sides this good, it’s not always about who has the best feet, but often who has the biggest tactical mind.
So can anyone stay on top for long? That seems unlikely, but that’s not a bad thing. Because with such a storied event, we’re living in another golden age. Maybe Hawker, Kerr, Ingebrigtsen, Wightman or Nader will come back and claim another world title. Or maybe the line-up of champions will continue to change, with Laros and Australian wunderkind Cam Myers the most likely contenders for the throne.
One thing is certain about this event in the coming years. It will be impossible to take a look.
Anatomy of gold. 1500m outdoor world champions
Doha 2019. Timothy Cheruyot
Time to win. 3:29.26
The last 300 m. 41.04:
Tokyo 2021. Jakob Ingebrigtsen
Time to win. 3:28.32
The last 300 m. 40.8:
Oregon 2022. Jake Whiteman
Time to win. 3:29.23
The last 300 m. 40.76
Budapest 2023. Josh Kerr
Time to win. 3:29.38
The last 300 m. 39.80
Paris 2024. Cole’s stool
Time to win. 3:27.65
The last 300 m. 39.6:
Tokyo 2025. Isaac Nader
Time to win. 3:34.10
The last 300 m 37.94
