To quote Katy Perry, these bets “come at you” like a dark horse.
When the US Open odds come down, it’s easy to pick the usuals – Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau. But for many years, a name out of this order breaks through and surprises us all. Aaron Rai did just that a few weeks ago and JJ Spaun won the US Open last year at Oakmont.
This week, we’re targeting a mix of elite ball hitters and power players who can heat up at the right time. The perfect recipe for Shinnecock is elite ball striking, high GIR percentage and above average putting.
As always, be an adult and bet responsibly.
Odds/lines quoted by Bet365.
1. Brooks Koepka to win (+4500)
Who won the last US Open held at Shinnecock Hills?
Brooks Koepka.
At +4500, he may not look like a traditional “dark horse”—but returning a $10 bet to $450 still looks like solid dark horse value in such a stacked field.
Koepka’s iron game is trending in the right direction, currently ranking in the top-5 on the approach. Putting has still been problematic, staying out of 100 balls in Strokes Gained: Putting.
The only other thing to watch is potential injury. He pulled out of RBC Canada last week with a hand injury, so he’s worth keeping an eye on as we approach Thursday’s opening hours.
If Brooks can heat up a bit more, he will be a legitimate threat for his third US Open title.
2. Johnny Keefer for a top-30 finish (+333)
Johnny Keefer is another guy who could struggle this week if the pitcher gets hot. He may even object if it only gets lukewarm.
He ranks high in GIR percentage, proximity to the hole, approach and total driving, but is outside the top-150 in putting. If his approach game is dialed up at Shinnecock, he’ll have a much easier time navigating these greens.
3. Cut with four choices to make the cut (+240)
If you’re looking for something a little more predictable, a “to make cut” is the way to go.
I’ve compiled five names that I feel confident of hitting Saturday and Sunday:
Like Woo Kim
Xander Schauffele
Matt Fitzpatrick
Sam Burns
When you combine these, you’re looking at roughly +240 odds ($10 bet wins $34).
Sam Burns started the last five: T20, T4, T26, T37 and T38.
Si Woo Kim last five starts: T10, 2, T35, T65 and T4.
Xander Schauffele last five starts: T29, T7, T60, T12 and T9.
Matt Fitzpatrick’s last five starts: 2, T36, T14, T52 and 1.
If you throw Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy in there, you end up at around +375 odds. As the saying goes, pressure makes diamonds – and I’ll be putting my hard-earned cheddar on this game.
4. Lowest Tour Round Under 65 (+500)
I’m betting we see a 64 or better at some point this week.
We’ve seen it at Augusta, we saw it a few weeks ago at the PGA Championship and Tommy Fleetwood shot a 63 the last time the US Open was played at Shinnecock.
It doesn’t take a perfect tournament to win this one, just one player getting hot for 18 holes.
Think of it as a bet that will keep you engaged all week.
Golf betting tips and tricks
I’m no expert, but I’ve won several hundred dollars betting on the PGA Tour this year.
Most of those wins have come from mid-tournament games. For example, I picked Akshay Bhatia to win earlier this year, doing so late in the tournament. He ended up closing it, and I turned the $15 into $150 and bought a new TV.
Don’t be afraid to wait until the first or second round is over before placing any bets. This gives you a much clearer picture of how the course is playing, who is really in shape and how the weather forecast is shaping up for Saturday and Sunday.
Last (and most important) tip:
DON’T BE AFRAID TO SHOW UP EARLY.
Some people like to let it travel, others prefer a guaranteed payment. Most sportsbooks now offer cash options when your bet is live, especially if your submission looks good.
If your dark horse is sitting near the top of the leaderboard on Sunday, don’t be afraid to take the guaranteed money.
We’ve seen it happen again and again this year – players with the lead on Sunday have been chased and overtaken late. There’s no shame in locking yourself in a dub.
Good luck, and let’s all win this week.
Main photo caption: Shinnecock Hills is the host of this week’s US Open. (GETTY IMAGES/Warren Little)
