The 2026 World Cup promises to be one of the most entertaining editions in the tournament’s rich history. A whole host of talented players will take center stage this summer, but only one will win the Ballon d’Or award in July.
With the award given to the best player at each World Cup since 1982, several stars appear poised to succeed Lionel Messi in North America. Michael Olise, Kylian Mbappé, Harry Kane and Lamine Yamal are rated by sportsbooks as the main contenders, while Messi is in contention to win the award for a third time.
However, the World Cup always offers a surprise, and it could be another individual who is not currently seen as a favorite to finally claim the Ballon d’Or. These three dark horses have been tabbed as outsiders for the prize, but each of them could play a starring role for their respective nations this summer.
Bruno Fernandes
Manchester United fans will tell you that Bruno Fernandes continues to age like fine wine, and it’s hard to disagree with them. The Red Devils talisman broke the Premier League attendance record in 2025/26, winning the division’s Player of the Season award, and is set to take that form to the World Cup with Portugal.
Fernandes will play a key role for Roberto MartÃnez’s side, acting as the conductor behind Cristiano Ronaldo while nurturing the likes of João Félix, Rafael Leão and Pedro Neto. If he continues to create chances and score goals, Portugal should make a deep run at the tournament, meaning he will be impossible to ignore when it comes to individual honours.
Fernandes is currently listed as 16/1 to win the Ballon d’Or award. His importance to Portugal and his form make him a value option and, with Goal.com listing a number of sports betting offers UK Free Betsseveral bettors may be tempted to back him to win the prize.
Ousmane Dembélé
France’s wealth of attacking talent means that apart from potential Kylian Mbappé, Didier Deschamps will rotate his options and make changes that will affect Ousmane Dembélé’s playing time. However, the Paris Saint-Germain winger is currently priced at 25/1 to win the Ballon d’Or award, which seems too low for the Ballon d’Or winner.
Dembélé has played fewer minutes this year, which has affected his overall goals and assists, but remains a dangerous threat, highlighted by his goals against Bayern Munich. Yes, he may be forced out on the right flank for France at the World Cup, but this will allow him to showcase his creativity and direct threat.
He will also likely trade with Michael Olise, allowing him to operate wide and centrally. If he can show how dangerous he can be in multiple positions, it will benefit him in his pursuit of the Ballon d’Or.
Jamal Musiala
Jamal Musiala may have spent a substantial amount of the 2025/26 season sidelined through injury, but the 23-year-old returned to fitness just in time for the World Cup. Slowly reintroduced to Bayern Munich, he finished the season with five goals and six assists, averaging a goal every 106 minutes.
While these aren’t the numbers Bayern and Germany fans have become accustomed to, the stage is set for Musiala to step things up at the World Cup. Has not played for the team since March 2025, but Julian Nagelsmann probably had no qualms about recalling one of his most talented players this summer.
Will he play every minute? Probably not. But he could hold the keys to Germany reaching the final stages of the tournament. If that happens, Musiala’s 50/1 odds to win the Ballon d’Or award will be drastically reduced.
