In a dramatic turn of events ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2026England’s four-wicket victory over New Zealand in Colombo on Friday blew the Group 2 qualification race wide open and gave Pakistan a lifeline to keep their semi-final hopes alive. The result at the R. Premadasa Stadium turned a complex mathematical equation for the Men in Green into a simple, if difficult, path to the knockout stages.
England’s victory upsets the standings of Group 2
Chasing a target of 160, England were in early trouble at 2/2 before captain Harry Brook steadied the innings. Will Jacks then provided a steady 32 off 18 deliveries, while Rehan Ahmed’s unbeaten 19 came from just seven balls. sealed the chase with three balls to spare. The victory confirmed England’s place at the top of Group 2 with six points from three Super 8 matches and an unbeaten record.
For New Zealand, the loss ended their Super 8 campaign with three points from three matches, although they maintained a formidable net run rate of +1.390.
Current status of group 2
After Friday’s result, the Group 2 points table presents a clear picture:
- England – Qualified for the semi-finals with 6 points
- New Zealand – 3 points (NRR: +1.390), campaign completed
- Pakistan – 1 point (NRR: -0.461), one match left
- Sri Lanka – 0 points, eliminated
Explained: Pakistan’s qualification scenarios
Pakistan’s path to the semi-finals is now completely in their control. They have to defeat Sri Lanka in the Super 8 final at Pallekele International Cricket Stadium on Saturday. However, just one win will not be enough – the margin of victory is very important.
With New Zealand boasting a superior net run rate compared to Pakistan, the Salman Agha-led side need a big win to leapfrog the Black Caps for their second semi-final berth.
Pakistan bat first
If Pakistan win the toss and elect to bat, they need to win by a minimum margin of 64 runs to overhaul New Zealand’s NRR. The exact requirement varies slightly depending on the total number published:
- Pakistan need to win by at least 66 runs if they score 250
- Pakistan need to win by at least 65 runs if they score 200
- Pakistan need to win by at least 64 runs if they score 150
- Pakistan need to win by at least 62 runs if they score 100
If Pakistan bat first
If Pakistan are to be chased, they must hit the target with exceptional urgency:
- If Sri Lanka score 250, Pakistan must score 14.3 or less
- If Sri Lanka score 200, Pakistan must score 13.5 or less
- If Sri Lanka score 150, Pakistan must score 13.1 or less
- If Sri Lanka score 100, Pakistan must score 12.2 or less
The match against Sri Lanka is a virtual knockout for Pakistan. If they fail to meet the required margin of victory, New Zealand will advance to the semi-finals based on their superior net run rate.
