By Martin Graham
The Champions League resumes this week with several heavyweight clubs returning to action ahead of schedule. Under the revamped structure, 36 teams faced eight different opponents between September and January. The top eight went straight through to the round of 16, while the bottom twelve were knocked out.
Teams finishing ninth to 24th now have to negotiate a double-header, with eight winners advancing. Among those required to take that extra step are the reigning European champions Paris St-Germain i Inter Milanthe team they defeated 5-0 in the 2025 final.
Real Madridwinners of the contest 15 times, also missed out on automatic qualification. Juventus, Borussia Dortmundand Benfica are in the same position. Benfica secured their place in spectacular fashion when goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin scored in stoppage time in a 4-2 win at Real Madrid to avoid elimination. The two clubs immediately meet again in the playoffs.
Five of England’s six entrants finished in the top eight. Arsenal were flawless with eight wins from eight games, Liverpool finished third, Tottenham fourth, Chelsea sixth and Manchester City eighth. Newcastle United is the only English team participating in the play-off and will face Qarabag, who were beaten 6-0 by Liverpool in January.
Proof that recovery is possible
Finishing outside the top eight does not necessarily destroy title ambitions. Paris St-Germain proved it last season. Luis Enrique’s side were on the brink of elimination when they trailed Manchester City 2-0 at home on matchday seven. They came back to win 4-2, then beat Stuttgart 4-1 to secure 15th place in the league standings.
PSG eliminated Brest 10-0 on aggregate in the play-offs, beat Liverpool on penalties in the round of 16 and eliminated Aston Villa and Arsenal in the quarter-finals and semi-finals. The campaign concluded with a 5-0 win over Inter in the final.
PSG face Monaco in the playoffs this year, and Luis Enrique remains confident. He claimed his squad was ready for such a scenario and insisted they could defend their crown despite the extra games.
Other competitions adopted comparable formats. Real Betis reached the Conference final after finishing 15th in the league stage and eventually losing 4-1 to Chelsea. In contrast, the Europa League saw seven of the top eight finishers reach the quarter-finals, with fourth-placed Tottenham defeating third-placed Manchester United in the final.
Opta’s projections suggest that additional ties do not significantly dampen expectations. PSG are more likely to lift the trophy than Tottenham and Sporting, despite the added hurdle. Newcastle and Inter have a 3% chance, as do Spurs. Arsenal, after a perfect league campaign, have a 30% chance of winning a first European title. Bayern Munich is at 14%, Manchester City and Liverpool at 10%, while Chelsea and Barcelona are at 7%.
Clubs that secured direct passage to the round of 16 expressed their satisfaction at avoiding the playoffs. Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola has welcomed the reduced workload and highlighted the increased difficulty of the competition compared to previous years.
Mikel Arteta highlighted the importance of Arsenal’s eight consecutive wins, describing the achievement as difficult and crediting his players. Similarly, Liverpool manager Arne Slot emphasized the benefit of skipping a round, while Chelsea manager Liam Rosenior stressed the importance of extra training time to improve fitness levels.
Newcastle, although forced to compete in the play-offs, remain optimistic. Opta estimate that Eddie Howe’s side have an 88.5% chance of getting past Qarabag to reach the last 16. Howe admitted he probably would have accepted a playoff spot early on, stressing his team is still competing.
Defender Dan Burn also saw the occasion positively, noting Newcastle reach the knockout stages of the Champions League for the first time in their history and expressing pride in the achievement.
