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Monday, December 23, 2024

Jesse Rodriguez vs. Pedro Guevara: Strategic Analysis


On Saturday, November 9, WBC and Ring Magazine Super Flyweight Champion Jesse ‘Bam’ Rodriguez (20-0, 13 KOs) will defend his title against WBC Interim Super Flyweight Champion Pedro Guevara (42-4-1, 22 KOs) at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia , Pennsylvania.

(Credit: Matchroom Boxing)

The bout was set up as the co-feature on the Jarron Ennis vs. Karen Chukhadzhian card. Jesse is ranked No. 7 on Ring Magazine’s pound-for-pound list. At age 24, he will only rise over time as his resume grows. He has the potential to be an everyday great.

Pedro Guevara has a very challenging match ahead of him, possibly the most challenging of his career. In his 48th career game, he faces an opponent in Rodriguez, who has the highest power connection percentage in the sport at 49.1 percent.

Bam achieved this against elite-level competition, beating the likes of Juan Francisco Estrada, Srisaket Sor Rungvisai, Sunny Edwards and Carlos Cuadras. He is also a very defensively sound boxer with a plus/minus difference of +20.3; his agility and evasive leg movement make him a difficult target to hit (Compubox). Guevara has shown problems against mobile boxers.

He was able to take out Andrew Moloney in a controversial split decision victory in May. Moloney created problems by becoming a mobile target, preventing Guevara from getting clean shots. Bam will only present a greater challenge and a much harder target to hit.

Jesse Rodriguez, similar to Vasiliy Lomachenko, knows how to masterfully create angles and control the range, dissecting opponents with precision. Bam will exploit Guevara’s mobility and land with precision, utilizing his underrated speed and quickness. He’s been able to exploit his elite-level competition, and Guevara should be no different.

Bam is 11 years younger and seems to have an advantage in almost every category – – speed, power, agility and accuracy. Guevara has decent power but hasn’t scored a knockout win since July 2021 when he beat Samuel Gutierrez Hernandez by TKO in the third round. Guevara is highly unlikely to outwork Rodriguez, and a knockout could be extremely challenging.

This is Bam’s battle to lose. Tested early in his career, he accepted a fight against Carlos Cuadras on five days’ notice, moving up two weight classes. He picked apart Cuadras and dropped him in the third en route to a unanimous decision victory. Became champion at the young age of 22. Guevara also fought Cuadras last November in what was a close fight. Guevara took a second round knockout, possibly costing him the match, and lost on a split decision.

Bam simply needs to go out and execute his game plan, and not get careless or overconfident. He should be able to dictate the game and possibly stop Guevara early.



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