7 picks our experts love

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a host and regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network dedicated to sports and sports betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow Brady on X at @LasVegasGolferand you can read his picks below for the 2026 CJ Byron Nelson Cup, which starts Thursday in Texas.

It feels good to take a break for a minute from the “bigger” events that have dominated the PGA Tour schedule for the past six weeks. It’s a good old-fashioned birding festival deep in the heart of Texas as, for the sixth year in a row, the CJ Cup Byron Nelson will be held at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas.

I like to call these next three weeks the “Legendary Swing” as we go from Byron Nelson to Ben Hogan’s place, Colonial Country Clubnext week in Fort Worth, only to be followed by the Jack Nicklaus Memorial in Dublin, Ohio. It’s a big lead until the third major of the season, the US Open, which will be held at Shinnecock Hills in New York. Scottie Scheffler will look to complete the career Grand Slam at Shinnecock – but first, he’ll look to defend his title here at Lord Byron.

Scheffler went “Star Trek” last season, boldly going where no man has gone before, shooting 31 under par and winning by eight strokes. Reinforcements were immediately called in to investigate and with the help of Lanny Wadkins, the golf course was set up in an attempt to make things a little more challenging.

In the 2026 edition, we’ll get a par 71 that measures just a shade short of 7,400 yards. Tom Weiskopf originally designed the property in 2004, but Wadkins has since narrowed the fairways, moved some of the bunkers and renovated many of the greens — again, to try to get things right to challenge the modern Tour player while still keeping this golf course playable for club membership. In the five times Craig Ranch has hosted this tournament, the average margin of victory is 25.5 under par. At the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, the Over/Under winning score proposal bet is 260.5, which means 23.5 under par.

Even with the changes on the golf course, my approach to handicapping hasn’t changed. The formula remains the same: efficiency off the tee, greens in regulation, birdie holes. Although there have been some changes on these Bentgrass greens, I still believe this will eventually become a putting contest. Consequently, I’ve looked at Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass), Birdies or Better Gained, Par 5 Scores, Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards, and Par 4 Rating in those measuring 0-5005 yards.

I believe the cross courses are quite strong this week. In these diminutive field events, we tend to see the same names appear on the leaderboard. I looked at two other Weiskopf models that we see on Tour, TPC Scottsdale AND Black Desert Resort in Utah. I looked too Bay Hill (Arnold Palmer Invitational), Vidanta Vallarta (Mexico Open) and El Cardonal en Diamante (Tech World Championship).

I’m going with the long shot approach this week. Scheffler is a forbidden favorite about +185. Both Woo Kim and Jordan Spieth are second picks at 15-1. Brooks Koepka checks in at around 25-1 and after that, there’s nothing shorter than 40 or 50-1 – and that’s where I’ll start.

Stephan Jaeger (70-1)

Jaeger seems to fit the profile quite nicely this week. He is a great player and has become one of the best players in the game. He has won in the state of Texas before (Houston Open) and has been a leading player on many of the courses with two top-6 finishes at Vidanta Vallarta, a runner-up and 11th in Utah and an 11th and 20th here at TPC Craig Ranch. He caught my eye last week at the PGA Championship, where he finished 18th. He was third on that course for Greens in Regulation and ninth for SG: Putting – which was also a Bentgrass surface.

Matt Schmid (80-1)

Maybe it’s a German thing this week as Schmid and Jaeger hail from Deutschland – and of course, Schmid was another to shine last week at Aronimink, finishing fourth. And what was the big part of his success? Yes, putting. Schmid was no. 1 in that area last week for SG: Putting. He was eighth last season at the World Tech Championship and finished fifth at Black Desert in 2024.

Jordan Smith (80-1)

Of all my picks this week, Smith is the only one who struggles with his putt, but I couldn’t ignore his amazing putter numbers or his 16th-place finish earlier this season at another Weiskopf design, TPC Scottsdale. The Englishman is spending his first full season on the PGA Tour after being an exclusively European Tour player for many years. He is currently ranked 21st on Tour for SG: Off The Tee, 34th for SG: Approach and is 62nd in Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks 12th in the field in Par 5s and is 15th in Hole Proximity from 200 yards or more.

Beau Hossler (90-1)

A University of Texas Longhorn, Hossler should feel very much at home this week, and yes, he is an excellent putter, ranking fourth on Tour for SG:Putting. He finished third two weeks ago at Myrtle Beach, where he ranked third in that field for Greens in Regulation and seventh for SG: Off the Tee. Hossler is the king of the top 20s at the linked courses, having posted a 17th here at Craig Ranch in the past, a 10th at Vidanta Vallarta, a 15th, 20th and 17th at El Cardonal, an 11th at Utah, two top 25s at Bay Hill, a 1st at Bay Hill, and one finish. 2023.

Taylor Moore (125-1)

We’ve had two recent Valspar Championship winners, Fitzpatrick earlier this season and Moore at 60-1 in 2023. He really hasn’t done much since that one Tour win, but he’s shown some signs. He finished 17th two weeks ago at Myrtle Beach, where he tied for ninth in that field for SG: Off the Tee and was 26th in SG: Approach, winning by nearly three strokes on the field. And yes, the putter is back, ranking 33rd on Tour this season for SG:Putting. It is also one of the best on the circuit for the proximity of holes between 175 and 225 yards. He finished ninth last year at TPC Scottsdale, has never missed a cut at Bay Hill and was runner-up earlier this season at the Cognizant Classic.

Hayden Springer (200-1)

Welcome to category 200-1. I believe this is our first venture into this territory in some time. Springer is a ghost who can putt and that is a good formula for TPC Craig Ranch. He also spent his college years at both Texas Tech and TCU, so he’s no stranger to this golf course or golf in this part of the world. He has spent most of his time this season on the Korn Ferry Tour, where he ranks fifth on that circuit for SG: Tee to Green and 11th for SG: Approach. Springer finished 20th last year at the Black Desert Championship.

Carson Young (225-1)

While we’re here in the 200-1 zip code, why don’t we stick around for another minute? Shake hands with Mr. Carson Young, who like Springer, has split his time this season between the PGA and Korn Ferry Tours. In the KFT, Young has three top-7 finishes, including last week at the Colonial Life Charity Classic, where he placed 17th in that field for SG: Approach and was the no. 1 in SG: Around the Green. On the Korn Ferry Tour this season, Young is ranked no. 1 for SG: Tee to Green and for SG: Around the Green. He is sixth in batting average. Young has been at his best on these types of courses, on these types of golf courses, having finished 14th here in the past at Craig Ranch, eighth and 15th at Vidanta Vallarta, ninth, sixth and second at El Cardonal, and was 11th at Utah in 2024.