Ranger Suarez gets hot, CC’d by Liscense 2.0
As we approach the All-Star break, the team’s statistical leaderboard looks a little different from last year. The biggest difference is that the Phillies finished with the 12th best ERA last year, while they currently have the highest ranked team ERA this year. Not only that, but their 3.24 ERA is .38 less than the next lowest, which is the Orioles at 3.62. Now, what did the Phillies do to take their pitching from middle of the field to the best in the entire league? Was it some big offseason acquisitions? Did they sign a new outstanding coach? Well, as it turns out, the answer is neither. The Phillies’ rotation is the same as last year except for the addition of Spencer Turnbull, and their pitching coach is still Cabe Cotham. What’s different about the spin is deeper in the numbers.
The Phillies have four primary starters: Aaron Nola, Zach Wheeler, Ranger Suarez and Christopher Sanchez. Mainly, Taijuan Walker and Spencer Turnbull made up the rest of their starting lineup. Taewan Walker is the only pitcher on this list who hasn’t had a hit this season, as he has a 5.60 ERA and 1.49 WHIP, so he won’t be named.
Spencer Turnbull, who has played mostly in the Bulgarian wing this season, has started 7 games with great success. On the season overall, he has a 2.65 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 54.1 innings. For a guy whose job it is to start here and there and come out of the bullpen for long relief, this is about as good as you could ask for. Last year, however, despite injuries, Turnbull had a 7.26 ERA in 31 innings pitched as a starter for the Tigers last season. While I’m sure the difference of being used primarily as a bullpen instead of a full-time starter has helped Turnbull’s success, I probably attribute most of his success to the increase in his sweep pitch. His primary speed has usually been his slider in the past, and he’s had moderate success with it. That was until 2023, when opponents averaged .290 against it. In 2024, Turnbull reduced his fastball usage slightly and used the sweeper almost as often. This new use of the sweeper resulted in an opposing batting average of .145 and 21 strikeouts, more than any other pitch in his arsenal. His sweeper averaged 83.8 MPH with 13.9 inches of horizontal travel, nearly an inch above average. Also, thanks to the addition of his new pitch, his other pitches have in turn seen more success in their limited use, especially his curveball, in which he has added another 2 inches of vertical movement since last season.
Aaron Nola has been a staple in the Phillies rotation since 2015, and this year is no different. Oddly, though, he has the worst ERA of the 5 starters I’m talking about in this article. The thing is, his ERA is 3.38, which is currently 28th among qualified pitchers in MLB. If your starting rotation’s worst ERA is the 28th highest in the entire league, you’re doing something right. Not too much, as Aaron Nola has been consistently good throughout his career, although he finished with an ERA+ of 97 last year, just below league average. Looking through the pages of Nola’s Baseball Savant over the last two years, there are few differences other than he’s increasing his fastball usage and his finger curve, his two primary pitches. His pitch speeds are similar, his movement on pitches is similar, and his usage of the rest of the pitches is similar. However, there is a significant difference in barrel percentage with 2023 being 2 percent higher than 2024. There is only one major difference I notice in his profile and that is the location of the pitch.
Top: 2023, Bottom: 2024.
Those are his 3 most used pitches, and it looks like Nola’s main issue in 2023 has been location, specifically his fastball. He consistently found the middle of the zone and batters took advantage of those swinging pitches, as evidenced by a career-worst .407 xSLG. This year, he’s back to his .372 average. Aaron Nola’s consistency and his veteran presence in younger hands are extremely beneficial aspects of this rotation’s success. He’s only 31 years old, and he’ll continue to be a consistent arm in the Phillies rotation for years to come.
The other consistently good Phillies arm is Zach Wheeler. Since joining the Phillies in 2020, Wheeler has been one of the best arms in the league. With the Phillies, he finished in the Cy Young Top 15 three times and made 2 All-Star teams. His baseball science page shows him in the 75th percentile or higher for all major categories except BB% and GB%, of which he still places in the top 50%. Wheeler is using his fastball, his primary pitch, 41.6% of the time this season, and opponents aren’t hitting it very well, resulting in a .219 strikeout average. Wheeler is able to hit pretty consistently on all of his pitches, with over 10 Ks per pitch in his 6-pitch arsenal (per Savant), minus his cutter. He allows very few sacks, and when he’s not hitting guys, he’s limiting them to weak contact at an above-average rate. Since joining the Phillies, the Wheeler-Nola combo has been pretty devastating to the rest of the league and has been a major part of their success in recent years.
One of the biggest reasons this Phillies rotation is so much better than previous years is because Ranger Suarez is finally living up to his potential. That’s not to say he’s been bad thus far, as he has yet to have a full season with an ERA+ under 100. However, he only pitched more than 150 innings in a full season once. We saw a glimpse of his greatness in 2021 when he pitched for the Phillies, but they inevitably made him the starter. He ended up starting 12 games before the end of the season, finishing with a 308 ERA+ in 106 innings. As impressive as it was, it wasn’t a full season to begin with. This season, however, as long as he can stay healthy, will undoubtedly be the best season of his career. On the season, Suarez currently has a 2.58 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. His ERA is not only the highest among the Phillies, but also the highest in the National League, closely followed by the previously mentioned Zach Wheeler. He has 106 Ks to just 23 walks and his ERA+ of 157 is currently the best in MLB. As it stands, he’s easily a top 3 Cy Young candidate. So what has changed for Suarez in the last year?
Looking from 2023 compared to 2024, not much has changed physically. Its pitch location, pitch distribution, spin rate and speeds are all quite similar. One difference I notice, however, is the increase in vertical spacing on almost all of his pitches, especially his changeup, from 34.9 to 40.2 inches. With this increased movement, opponents are batting a lot more, only averaging .186, compared to last year’s .267. Aside from the vertical movement in his pitches, however, there isn’t much difference in his physical attributes. The main difference is in its percentages. He grew on everyone but his fastball velocity as his fastball actually slowed down, which isn’t a bad thing in his case. The major percentages that Suarez excels at are BB%, where he is in the 86th percentile, Barrel%, where he is also in the 86th percentile, and Ground Ball%, where he is in the 91st percentile. These are all massive increases from their respective 2023 percent. Therefore, what Suarez has greatly improved on is limiting baserunners, limiting hard contact, and most importantly, keeping the ball on the ground. That last factor in particular has resulted in him owning a .354 XSLG, 50 points below league average. Ranger Suarez pitches in a Maddux fashion, where he’s not going to beat you with speed or have one pitch be his go-to pitch, but rather relies on a 6-pitch mix where he can mix and match to keep the hitter away. balance, resulting in poor contact and easy exits. He is coming off perhaps his 3 worst starts of the season, giving up 6, 5 and 4 runs respectively, but hopefully he can return to ace form by the All-Star break.
The last pitcher to be credited for the Phillies’ success is also the most shocking, and that’s Christopher Sanchez. Sanchez pitched in relief for the Phillies in 2021 and 2022 and was a starter in 2023. In 99.1 innings, he finished the season with a 3.44 ERA. He has totaled 103.1 innings as a starter this season, currently sporting a 2.96 ERA and a 138 ERA+. He currently holds the 11th best ERA in MLB, yet somehow is only 3rd on his own team, again showing just how impressive the Phillies have been. He’s already done decently well in 2023, so this improved success isn’t entirely unreasonable, but something had to change for that to happen.
The crazy thing is, Sanchez is actually allowing more walks, more hits, and fewer strikeouts than in years past. So where does his success come from? He gave up 16 home runs in 99 innings last year, leading to 1.4 HR/9. He has currently allowed just 2 home runs this season, resulting in a league low 0.2 HR/9. Like other Phillies pitchers, he has been elite at limiting hard contact. He’s swinging at a .355 XSLG, about 50 points below league average, a 4.9 barrel %, about 2% below league average, and most importantly, a 59.9 ground ball rate, about 16% above league from the average. His GB% is in the 97th percentile in MLB, which is critical to a starter’s success. The more the ball is on the ground, the more chances a team will have to make a play. This weak contact is due to his ability to make players chase, as he is in the 98th percentile in Chase%. He doesn’t rely on velocity because he doesn’t even throw a fastball. Sanchez gets opposing hitters chasing and rolling due to his elite movement on his pitches, above-average horizontal and vertical displacement, and spin rate on all 3 of his pitches (they are his sinker, slider, and changeup). ) He’s had a consistently great pitch all season, keeping things in the zone. This commitment to keeping it low has certainly led to an increase in walks, but more importantly, it’s why his ground ball rate is so high. If Sanchez can make sure he keeps the ball on the ground and can avoid allowing too many baserunners, he should continue to see success the rest of the season and could cement himself in this rotation for years to come, creating one of the more dominant rotations. MLB has seen a long time.
I’m an Atlanta Braves fan, so writing this article was difficult, but I wrote it because it’s been a very, very long time since MLB has seen a rotation that was this dominant 1-5. The last time we saw an entire rotation have this much success was probably the Tigers in the early 2010s, and everyone remembers how good they were. Like it or not, this Phillies rotation has proven they are legit, and that makes them a scary team entering the second half of the season. When October rolls around, I’d fear the Phillies more than any other team right now, and that’s because of their World Series-caliber rotation.
