Paul Skenes plays for the Pittsburgh Pirates, CCed by Liscense 2.0
The race for the National League Rookie of the Year for the 2024 MLB season has been a treat for baseball fans. The amount of young talent in baseball seems to have increased both in number and in the quality of those players. The type of talent that gets drafted out of college or even high school is otherworldly, leading to quick promotions to majors that can make a real impact on their teams. The top three rookies slated for the award are Jackson Merrill (SD), Paul Skenes (PIT) and Jackson Churio (MIL). Each of these athletes is in their 20s, and Churio can’t even afford a drink. Still, these guys are worth highlighting, and each of them has a strong case to win Rookie of the Year in 2024.
This Padres rookie has been outstanding in his first 135 games. Jackson Merrill was drafted 27th overall out of high school in 2021. Now, as a 21-year-old, he has provided some of the funniest moments of the 2024 MLB season. Typing in “Jackson Merrill clutch” on Twitter will bring up several videos of him hitting game-tying home runs, walk-offs and bases-clearing hits. This story and his genuine performance propelled him into the ROTY race ahead of previous favorite Paul Skenes.
Looking at the numbers, Merrill has an impressive 125 OPS+. Being 25% better than league average as a 21-year-old is something not many players can say they have accomplished. His .291/.323/.493 slash line is nothing to scoff at either, as it has allowed him to collect 21 home runs and 22 doubles in his 481 at-bats. With the season ending here in September, Merrill can set his sights on a 20-20 season as he needs four more stolen bases to reach that milestone.
Merrill’s Baseball Savant percentages are also very impressive. His top rankings put him in the 97th percentile for expected batting average, 97th in Los Angeles Sweet-Spot, 95th in expected slugging percentage and 93rd in xwOBA. His value does not come solely from the time he spends in the batter’s box, as Merrill is in the 94th percentile for OAA, 91st in arm strength and 80th in sprint speed. It would be hard not to say that Merrill is a lock for the ROTY award this year. However, his competition is proving to be strong and the -800 favorite could spring a surprise when the prize is handed out.
The flame out of LSU set the baseball world on fire when he was called up to make his debut with the Pirates. Paul Skenes had won the College World Series just months earlier against the best hitters in the world. As a 22-year-old, Skenes has been setting records since throwing his first pitch in the majors. He recently set the record for most hits by a Pirates rookie since 1900. His impact was felt so widely that he was named to the NL All Star team and started the game for the National League. He homered off some of MLB’s best hitters, including Aaron Judge and Juan Soto.
Skenes is one of the best shortstops in baseball this season. His 2.13 ERA and 142 strikeouts in 114 innings are more than impressive on their own. Skenes also has a 198 ERA+ while striking out just 30 walks in his first season on the job. His walks have become must-see TV. not just because of his electric arsenal, but the chance to see Livvy accompanying Dan is something no one should pass up.
His percentages tell the real story about Skenes’ year. Expected statistics often tell the truth about any player because they reveal the amount of “luck” that affects a player’s performance on the field. Skenes doesn’t need any luck at all, as his expected ERA and expected batting average are in the 95th and 93rd percentiles. His flight mileage value is almost overrated, falling in the 99th percentile. It’s almost impossible to find any negatives on his Savant page. The only percentage that is below average is his elongation, which is in the 42nd percentile. So far, this rank seems out of place based on his other numbers.
There is a very real possibility that Skenes could still win the ROTY. The clutch factor Merrill displayed flipped the script on the favorite, but it’s not crazy to say Skenes had a more valuable season. In fact, Skenes has more bWAR than Merrill (5.1 vs. 3.5). Of course, we’ll likely see Merrill in October, while Skenes’ Pirates won’t be in the playoffs this year.
It’s almost impossible to see a world where Jackson Churio comes away with the ROTY award this year. It’s also impossible for Churio to grab a beer with his teammates after the game, which is ironic considering he plays for the Brewers. It’s not a stretch to say that Churio has the potential to be as exciting as the two guys above. Brewer, 20, was showing off his tools in 2024. He actually showed off his tools so well in the minors that it earned him an 8-year, $82 million contract before he even set foot on a major league field. However, if Churio continues to play the way he is in 2024, this contract will end up being a steal for the Brew Crew.
In 125 games, Chourio has a 118 OPS+. While not quite the 125 Merrill has, it’s still remarkable, especially considering Churio won’t turn 21 until March 2025. The center fielder has 19 home runs and 20 stolen bases. He’s also in the 20-20 race and needs one more long ball to get there. His 97th percentile ranking in sprint speed should allow Churio to be in the 20-20 conversation every year he plays in the MLB. His .280/.331/.470 slash is respectable. Again, every number listed here is insane given Churio’s age.
Chourio’s Savant page is also noteworthy. Although more blue than the previous two players, Churio more than makes up for it, ranking 92nd in batting average, 96th in base running value, 87th in OAA and arm strength, and 88th in batting average. at the cost of a hit run. While Churio probably won’t win the ROTY award this year, his production cannot be overlooked by baseball fans. If he continues to develop the way the Brewers want him to, Churio will be a special player for years to come.
Baseball fans are spoiled for choice with this year’s rookies. In the NL, we have the three guys listed above, along with names like Tyler Fitzgerald (SF) and Shota Imanaga (CHI). In the AL, we have the likes of Austin Wells (NYY), Colton Cowser (BAL) and Mason Miller (OAK). As players continue to get better and better in college and high school, the pool of young talent will only continue to grow. For now, the NL ROTY race is largely up in the air. The talent at the top may only receive one award, but their presence on the baseball diamond is a tribute to all of baseball.
