Francisco Lindor plays for the New York Mets CCed by Liscense 2.0
It’s awards season in baseball, and looking at the MVP leaderboards, it’s ultimately a two-man race in both leagues, with the AL race coming down to Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge and Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. and the NL race assigned to the Dodgers. shortstop Shohei Ohtani and Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor. While both are clear favorites, I think it’s a much closer race for both sides than people think. Let’s break down each race and decide who should win. (All stats prior to 9/11)
Bobby Witt Jr. was drafted No. 2 overall in 2019 and was the Baseball America and USA Today Minor League Player of the Year in 2021, so he enters 2022 with high expectations. The Royals liked what they saw in his first two years (106 wRC+, 8.1 fWAR in 2022-23) and signed him to the richest contract in franchise history. It paid off immediately, as he was one of the best players in all of baseball by fWAR and bWAR this season. His BABIP is at a career-high .355, but his batting numbers have also improved. Witt is among the best in the league in average exit velocity (95th percentile), barrel velocity (92nd percentile) and hard hitting velocity (89th percentile). Comparing him to Aaron Judge, Witt is a better defender (100th percentile outings than average at premium position) and base hitter. And while it can’t be quantified, it can be argued that Witt has been more valuable to his team than Judge. Last season, the Royals had the second-worst record in baseball at 56-106. As of this writing, they’re 75-65 and occupy the third wild card spot in the wild card race, and it’s no coincidence that this improvement coincides with Witt’s rise to superstardom.
Unfortunately for Witt, Aaron Judge is also near the top of the league in both versions of WAR. Also, Judge leads all of baseball in OBP, SLG, wOBA, ISO, BB%, and if you’re into traditional stats, HR and RBI. Even looking at his batted ball data, he leads the league in average exit velocity, barrel velocity, hard hit rate and xwOBA. He is having a better offensive season than his 2022 MVP season, Bryce Harper’s monster 2015 MVP season and Miguel Cabrera’s 2012 Triple Crown season. To put that in perspective, Judge is on pace for the highest single-season wOBA and wRC+ since Barry Bonds (barring a shortened 2020 season). Playing center field every day hurts Judge’s value because he’s a negative defender there (13th percentile outs above average), but even with that in mind, Steamer projects Judge to finish at 10.3 fWAR.
Some will compare it to the 2012 MVP debate between Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout; Do you pick the player who has a historic season in one area of ​​the game, or do you pick the player whose overall value is better? That’s different, though, because Judge’s offensive season has been so dominant that he and Witt Jr. are tied in WAR, where Trout had almost 3.0 more WAR than Cabrera in 2012. Bobby Witt Jr. is here to stay and will likely win some MVPs after a streak, but Judge’s offensive dominance earns him his second MVP.
The Mets got off to an 0-5 start and were 24-33 through May, but are 47-31 since June and are currently tied for third in the National League. Not surprisingly, the Mets’ level of play correlates with Francisco Lindor’s level of play. Lindor had an 84 wRC+ in the first month of the season, and he followed that up with a good-not-great 115 wRC+ in May. He’s been on the heater since June, though, posting a 161 wRC+ and propelling the Mets into playoff contention. In 2022, he was 7th in the National League in fWAR, but most of that came from defensive value, as he was in the 98th percentile in hitting above average, but 27th in wOBA and 17th in wRC+ in the Nationals. among league players. In addition to being an elite defender this season (99th percentile above average), he is having his best offensive season since joining the Mets, as he is 9th in the National League in wOBA and 8th in wRC+ : To back it up, his primary batted ball metrics (exit velocity, barrel velocity and hard hit velocity) are also the highest since joining the Mets. If you’re into traditional stats, he’s also been a nice power-hit threat, posting 30 home runs (5th in the NL) and 26 stolen bases (tied for 8th in the NL). This elite combination of offense, defense and baserunning ends up with 7.2 fWAR, which is first in the National League, and 6.5 bWAR, which is third. The Mets are 11th in the National League in both starting pitcher FIP and relief pitcher FIP, but 4th in wRC+. No one really expected anything from the Mets this season, but Lindor’s excellent play has put this team in the heart of the playoff race.
A designated hitter had never won an MVP until Ohtani in 2021, and as we know, he was not only a designated hitter, but also an elite starting pitcher. Ohtani is the best hitter in the National League as he leads in slugging percentage, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. He also tops the leaderboard among all players in batted ball data, ranking in the 100th percentile in average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage, and in the 99th percentile in barrel rate. Another way to visualize Ohtani’s offensive prowess is to look at it from the WAR landscape. Despite having zero defensive value, Ohtani is second in the NL in fWAR and leads the NL in bWAR. The Dodgers have struggled this year as they are 10th in the National League in rotation FIP and 14th in bullpen FIP. However, they are only one game behind #1: Overall seed in the National League as they lead the league in wRC+ despite not having Mookie Betts for a good portion of the season. And while I praised Lindor for being a good power-speed threat, Ohtani is the top power-speed threat in baseball. His strongest case for MVP is that he’s chasing a 50/50 season, and he has a very good shot to get there, as he’s 46/47 at the time of writing.
This is actually a similar conversation to the American League. Do you pick the candidate with a great, historic season, or the one whose all-around game provides more value? Ohtani is again doing something that has never been seen in baseball, but I don’t think his offensive game is dominant enough to overcome Lindor’s all-around game. Both players are deserving, but Francisco Lindor’s season deserves his first MVP award.
