Max Kepler of the Minnesota Twins; Licensed by CC 2.0
Throughout the 2024 MLB season, we’ve seen a number of no-impact free agents signed for relatively cheap, raising minimal expectations and contributing well beyond their pay grade. Luke Weaver, the playoff hero and the Yankees’ consensus top closer heading into last season, was signed for $2 million. Jurickson Profar, who was signed by the Padres after the offseason, posted a 139 wRC+ and 4.3 fWAR en route to his first career All-Star game. Jesse Winker and Michael Lorenzen, both signed for $5 million, have been able to raise potential impact prospect capital for the Nationals and Rangers, respectively. With such a loaded free agent class heading into the offseason, it’s hard not to be enamored with top talent looking for new contracts, though the annual deal market shouldn’t be disrupted, especially this year.
Turnbull has made the case for free agency very difficult. He was very effective as a starter, though between Philadelphia’s pitching depth and a season-ending lat strain, he wasn’t allowed to generate enough work to earn a major payout this offseason. Turnbull’s biggest strength happens to be the depth of his repertoire, throwing 6 different pitches over 5% of the time. His cut fastball is a platoon-neutral offering, he can moderate success against both sides with his sweeper and changeup, both solid offerings, and his curveball was as close to unhittable as it got. Turnbull has made it very clear that he has both the attributes and the playmaking ability to step up into the starting lineup, although it remains to be seen whether a team will pay him for that type of role. Turnbull’s free agency is very reminiscent of Nick Martinez, a starting reliever who eventually became a starter after signing with the Redskins to a 2-year, $26 million contract with a player option for the second year. If Turnbull agrees to a similar contract, he will be given a chance to prove his fitness and durability as a capable middle-of-the-rotation arm. Assuming he leaves Philadelphia, he will likely assume a full-time starting role, solidifying his value in 2026.
There may not be a pitcher in baseball more adversely affected by poor ballpark conditions than Sims, who has shown elite stuff year after year. Sims has a tendency to elevate the fastball, above average pitch I might add, to a degree not typically seen by pitchers within the confines of Great American Ballpark, which has been detrimental to his results and has been throughout his Reds career. Keeping the pitch high in the zone worked pretty well for Sims if you look at almost anything other than run allowance. It produced a viable xWOBACON when compared to the average fastball, it induced chases at an above-average rate, and raised whiffs to about an average level. At issue is the size of Great American Ballpark, one of the most accommodating venues in modern baseball. Sims posted a 54.5% fly ball rate in 2024, the third highest in baseball among quality relievers. Not usually what a pitcher wants, but for a heavyweight NS pitcher, it’s to be expected. Running away from Cincinnati and Boston, two stadiums in the top four in ballpark factor would do wonders for his results. A forward-thinking team should see an arsenal led by one of baseball’s best sweepers and splurge well below his value in this profile. As for Sims, a one-year deal with a skilled ball club in a less damaging field should be seen as an opportunity to increase his value and re-enter the market next season.
Michael Conforto is an obvious victim of the nasty size Oracle Park provides, especially as a left-handed hitter. Despite the tough environment, Conforto has still performed well in a relatively acceptable sample, posting a 112 wRC+ and .327 wOBA in 488 PAs, though the data suggests this may only be the tip of the iceberg for the former All-Star. Conforto’s xWOBA-wOBA differential was a whopping -0.058, one of the largest in the sport. Giants bats in general tend to consistently perform below their potential given obscure and atypical pitch sizes, with nearly all of their daily lineup showing xWOBAs below their actual output. Offensively, there really isn’t a glaring flaw in Conforto’s game. His exit velocities are top of the line, and he often optimizes his hard contact with proper launch angles, posting a barrel rate of around 12%. He doesn’t strike out at a very high rate, and so he walks at a respectable 8.6% clip. The hit tool is nothing to love, although it is far from harmful. In a market where free agents tend to sign huge, long deals at outrageous average annual values, Conforto shouldn’t command as much as he’s worth. Landing a very well-rounded bat to the lefty side could be the missing piece needed for some World Series pennies.
Max Kepler is another odd free agency case to appreciate. He showed flashes of greatness, most notably in 2023, when he posted a 123 wRC+ and 2.8 fWAR in 130 games, his first truly healthy sample size since 2019. 2024 was a disaster, however, as Kepler couldn’t find that offensive move that resembled that move. last season, injuries plagued another year for the German. Kepler missed time with a knee contusion in early April before being placed on the season-ending list with left patellar tendinitis in September. A lack of vital time early in the season limited Kepler’s ability to catch heat for a Twins team that desperately needs his presence, as he posted a 94 wRC+ and 1.0 fWAR in just 105 games, a clear regression. Even in an off year, we still saw Kepler’s career exit velocity of 115.4 MPH, 23rd in baseball last season. Obviously, he is still capable of posting plus results. While Kepler’s overall ability regressed slightly from his 2023 peak, he continued to make the most of his contact at a 37.4% rate in the LA SweetSpot, well above the league average. There’s a ton of volatility in the performance Kepler can deliver in 2025, but we’ve seen zero consistency over his entire career, and the last two seasons are a prime example of the absolute duplicity a player in this demographic can have, but a positive one. What Kepler brings to the table is enough to completely revitalize a lineup that needs a strong left-handed bat.
