Jacob Misiorowski for the Biloxi Shuckers in the Milwaukee Brewers organization, CC by Liscense 2.0
Coming off another fantastic MiLB season, StatCast’s metrics have become more prominent than ever in talent evaluations across the league. While data from the Complex League, Pacific Coast League, A+ and AA are currently removed from the public eye, the complete Florida State League and AAA figures provide enough basis for a basic assessment of minor league talent. . While the analysis based on the results may contradict some of the underlying assessment here, the data shows that there is a huge jump in the growing phenomena highlighted here, both in terms of media prominence and the perspective background in general.
Adam Cerwinowski. Cincinnati Reds LHP, Low-A Daytona
Adam Cerwinowski is a predictable southpaw who is consistently underrated by major prospect publications. With a 15th-round pick out of high school in 2022, the Redskins appear to have struck gold for the young left-hander with a starting lineup that featured a viable repertoire of three pitches that likely all graded above average or better.
The most frequently used pitch is the four-seam fastball, which averages over 94 MPH, which is more than the LHP’s viable velocity. Although inflated by the smaller dimensions of the low-A ball compared to the big league ball, the pitch has a 17-inch induced vertical break, which is much higher than the league average for wingspan. The lack of horizontal movement allows the pitch to play specifically for swings and misses, which he excelled at, generating a 26.4% strikeout rate and a 28.8% chase rate, both well above league average. The fastball also avoids damage quite effectively, as hitters post a small .286 xWOBACON against it. Cerwinowski is zoning the pitch at a far less than ideal rate of 51.7%, though an elite chase rate should encourage him to continue to do so, at least against competition in the low minors who can’t seem to grasp the pitch.
Cerwinowski’s most-used secondary is a low-80s slider, a pitch that likely needs an increase in velocity to succeed against higher-level competition. Shape wise there is more drop than the average slider with a -2.4” IVB and excellent glove side movement with a 9” sweep. The pitch doesn’t generate as many effective pursuits as it should, though it does make plays when zoned out, picking up 40% pitch and mitigating optimal contact in the .318 xWOBACON. If Cerwinowski changes the movement a bit with increased velo and tightens the pitch just a bit, there’s a base for a plus switch here. To round out the repertoire, Cerwinowski recently debuted a curveball he barely threw. This makes it difficult to gauge true effectiveness against opposing hitters, though a neutral pitch for the platoon will be huge for the growth of his repertoire. It’s a tantalizing profile with some variation in his potential results, though one has to be skeptical about how much Cincinnati’s pitching development can improve on the deficiencies.
Jacob Misiorovsky. Milwaukee Brewers RHP, AAA Nashville
Jacob Misiorowski is a Stuff+ model’s dream. The velo and movement on display is simply otherworldly, and it’s fair to say that Miz has the best clear stuff in MiLB overall. The fastball sits at exactly 98 MPH, which is well above league average, though the 7’5″ extension allows for elite velocity to play even above that standard. The form also stands out, especially given the diminutive 5’3″ launch height. It has a whopping 16 inches of carry and 9.7 inches of underarm, which is a stark contrast to the 13/11 shape it showed in 2023. When combined with the exceptionally flat -4.1° vertical approach angle, the pitch is breathtaking, especially when in the optimal position. A top third of the zone highlighted by a 33.3% whiff, one of the highest numbers among all AAA fastballs.
Going deeper, Misiorowski throws a curveball with one of the best velo/drop combos the game has ever seen. The -10/-8.7 shaped curveball epitomizes what modern baseball philosophers strive to build. Very few pitchers are able to combine that level of velocity with vertical movement, with most major league examples releasing their switches more than 6 feet. That’s plus pitching (probably double-plus pitching) with his upside among the best in the sport, and that’s highlighted by Misiorowski’s outrageous 41% whiff rate despite a well-below-average command of the offering.
Misiorowski’s most underutilized offering is the cutter/slider hybrid, and one of the best in baseball at that. At 93 mph, he gets about 5 inches of carry, which is significantly higher than a regular slider and slightly lower than an average cutter with a 1.7-inch sweep, lining up that cutter/stiff gyro shape. The main objective here is to effectively avoid hard contact, most often against the LHB, which of course it does. No one seems to be able to level the pitch, though it isn’t particularly lacking in bats that line up with purpose either.
It’s an unusual profile, something vastly different than any planning prospect in recent memory. While everything looks metric when looking at the repertoire, the one glaring flaw in Missiorowski’s profile as a whole can be encapsulated in a 42.7% zone rate. To call the command shaky would be an understatement, as it’s the only thing holding him back from being the best player in baseball, if not the overall leader. There’s just so much reliever risk in a demographic of flamethrower prospects in orders of magnitude below average that it hurts Misiorowski’s valuation by prospect evaluators at all levels, and rightfully so. While it’s unlikely, if Misiorowski gets his command down to even average, there’s a blueprint for one of the most polarizing pitchers baseball has ever seen.
Billy Amick. Minnesota Twins 3B. Low-A Fort Myers
2024 National Champion Billy Amick slipped up quite a bit while looking at the 2024 MLB Draft. He was viewed as a top-40 player in a relatively deep class, though he managed to fall to 60th overall in Minnesota. Amick has always had promising pop, posting an average EV of 94.6 MPH, a 90% EV of 110.1 MPH, and a top EV of 113.1 MPH in his final season at Tennessee, all of which were in the 94 6th percentile or better for NCAA hitters. He’s had no trouble transitioning to the stick, and while the sample size is ridiculously small, we’ve seen improvement in the more philosophical aspects of hitting. He’s throwing more pitches than ever before and getting even more contact against professional pitching.
Focusing more on the fastball, Amick hasn’t seen the swing college bats typically see when adjusting to composite wood bats, and while the EVs are a little weak, it’s not too detrimental. He still had a 43% HardHit rate and a 10.2% barrel rate in the 312 pitch sample he faced for Fort Myers. There is some concern with the hitter, which is one of the main factors in his unpredictable decline, as he often drops his hands at the plate, causing the launch angle to deviate from the sweet spot. Ignoring the glaring flaws that plague Amick’s prospect stock, he has the offensive tools to become a long-term addition to a Minnesota lineup that desperately needs strengthening.
Dalton Rushing. Los Angeles Dodgers C, AAA Oklahoma City
Dalton Rushing is a player who probably would have already made a big impact in the big leagues if it weren’t for the abundance of talent the Dodgers already have behind the plate, headlined by Will Smith, who signed a long-term extension last season. While Smith struggles defensively behind the dish, it’s hard to imagine the Dodgers moving him out of the position, even though Rushing appears to be a significantly more valuable player in almost every way. Even if the Dodgers decide to move Rushing to 1B, or perhaps the corner outfield, the bat will play just about anywhere. He took a huge step forward in terms of results in 2024 and far exceeded expectations for himself, reaching that premium prospect status nearly a year after being drafted in the second round.
Haste has a tremendous approach at the plate, leaving anything out of the zone and crushing over-zoned foul fields. While most players with a pace like Rushing’s take that approach even on infield pitches, Rushing defies the archetype by attacking while maintaining an above-average zone rate of 69%. He walks 15.4% of the time while not being unprotected passively on pitches that are hit, which analytics departments love, especially valuable considering he’s a regular defender behind the plate. Just to add to an already phenomenal profile, Rushing has the best average and 90th% exit velocities in AAA at 90.8 MPH and 105.4 MPH respectively.
Unlike Amick, he doesn’t waver in terms of bat path and hits the ball relatively consistently optimally, with a SwSpt% above the AAA average. Rush is one of the very few prospects that lacks a real glaring profile flaw. He may struggle to connect with better fastballs at times, though it won’t hurt him beyond anything. Assuming nothing drastic changes at the big league level and the Dodgers opt for defensive improvement behind the plate over Smith’s perennial mediocrity, this is the latest catcher’s profile.
