Javier Baez plays for the Detroit Tigers; Licensed by CC 2.0
In 2016, the Chicago Cubs snapped the franchise’s 108-year hitting streak with a 7-game World Series victory over the Cleveland Indians. The Cubs sent seven players to the All-Star Game that season, including outfielders Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell, and Ben Zobrist, outfielder Dexter Fowler, and pitchers Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester. In the years following that title, however, it was second baseman Javier Baez who would make a big impact on Chicago’s teams of the late 2010s.
Born in Puerto Rico and the 9th overall pick of the Cubs in 2011, Baez made his debut with the team in 2014. He struggled in his limited playing time, playing in just 80 games over his first two MLB seasons. In 229 plate appearances over 52 games during his rookie campaign, Baez collected just 36 hits and 15 walks while striking out 95 times, averaging nearly two strikeouts per game. This compulsion to swing at every pitch he saw has been a consistent theme throughout his up-and-down career.
Because Cubs manager Joe Maddon loved defensive versatility, Baez was a perfect fit for the 2016 title-winning team. Baez started to show some promise, slashing .273/.314/.423 while sitting just below league average due to offense in the late 2010s with a 94 OPS+. Baez’s real value to Chicago was for him. protection, which earned him the nickname “El Mago”, meaning “The Magician”. While sharing the infield with four All-Stars, Baez has secured his everyday role, ranking in the 99th percentile in above average as well as the 94th percentile in Fielding Run Value. When paired with his 92nd percent speed, Baez found himself in the field primarily at second and third base, but also occasionally popped up at shortstop. He even started six games at first base and two games in left field in 2016.
Although the walk refusal and strikeout willingness carried over into 2017, Baez continued to push his breakout. When 2016 All-Star Addison Russell’s play plummeted, eventually coupled with off-field troubles that effectively ended his MLB career, Baez moved his elite defense almost exclusively to center field, splitting 153 games between second base and shortstop. In 2017, Baez was essentially a league-average bat, finishing with a 102 OPS+, but he surpassed the 20 home run mark for the first time and compiled a bWAR of 2.6.
Baez’s real breakthrough came in 2018, when he finished second in the National League MVP voting. He smashed nearly all of his career bests with 34 home runs, an NL-leading 111 RBI and a bWAR of 6.4. Baez also made his first All-Star Game and won the Silver Slugger. His hitting issues persisted, however, as he struck out 167 times to go along with just 29 walks. Baez’s 2018 Baseball Savant page is one of the most popular pages in baseball, as he ranked in the top 10 percent in xSLG, Barrel Percentage, OAA and Baserunning Run Value, while also ranking in the bottom 10 percent in Chase Rate, Whiff Rate : , and Walk Rate.
Baez’s stardom continued to shine in 2019, even though he missed 24 games due to injury. If not for the missed time, Baez’s 2019 season would have been a near-mirror image of his last year. He made his second All-Star team and played such elite defense to complement a strong bat that he compiled a career-high 6.6 bWAR in slightly more limited playing time. Baez’s most impressive stats in 2019 were his 100th percentile rankings in OAA and Fielding Run Value, seemingly a direct result of Baez taking over his natural shortstop position full-time.
Baez, like many others, struggled in a 60-game Covid-shortened season, but he bounced back nicely in 2021. Five years removed from the 2016 World Series title, the Cubs began a rebuild after failing to return to the Fall Classic. . At the 2021 trade deadline, Chicago moved on from the rest of the core, trading Baez to the New York Mets for pitcher Trevor Williams for top prospect Pete Crowe-Armstrong. While his bat was once again in the league average at the time of the trade, Baez compiled a career-best 47 games in a Mets uniform. As a Met, he slashed .299/.371/.515 and cut his hitting short, forming a deadly middle infield with fellow star Francisco Lindor. Despite his winning resurgence, the Big One suffered a horrific second-half collapse, going 21-37 after acquiring Baez and finishing 77-85 after a 56-48 record at the time of the trade.
Baez signed a six-year, $140 million contract with the Detroit Tigers after the 2021 season as he looks to lead a young team to the top of the AL Central. Instead, Baez’s contract has proven to be one of the worst in all of baseball. In 280 games between 2022 and 2023, Baez collected just 245 hits and 26 home runs while striking out a whopping 272 times. His saving grace during those two seasons was his defense, which remained elite at his primary position. That was not the case in 2024, however, as Baez fell into the bottom 10 percent in OAA and Batting Run Value, as well as his usual Chase Rate and Walk Rate.
In 2024, Statcast introduced new bat speed tracking technology that shows how fast a player’s bat is moving during a given swing. Baez ranks in the 93rd percentile in bat speed with an average of 75.4 miles per hour, indicating that his discipline and contact issues could be the result of almost every at-bat swinging out. Baseball Savant’s zone charts show that the majority of pitches Baez receives land in and out of the strike zone. Baez has shown throughout his career that he just can’t adjust to the down and away ball, resulting in countless clips of him chasing down sliders in the other batter’s box.
It’s not as easy as it sounds to just stop swinging at bad pitches, but if Baez can make the necessary adjustments, there’s still hope he can return to the player he was for Chicago. For now, though, the Tigers are stuck with his contract for four more years as they continue to contend in a surprisingly strong AL Central.
