For each PGA Tour event, we’ll rank the top 10 players by odds to win, based on a weighted model, shape and course fit. Along the way, we’ll highlight some of our favorite bets.
This week, the Tour heads west to Tampa for the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook.
This week: The Valspar Championship
- Date: March 19-22, 2026
- Location: Palm Harbor, Florida
- Course: Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort
- How to watch: NBC, Golf Channel, ESPN+, Peacock
- Purse: $9,100,000
- Defending champion: Viktor Hovland
What skills does the course reward?
The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is one of the toughest courses every year on the tour and tends to produce a strong winner who is on top of his ball hitting.
This is not a course that looks like the other Florida courses we see each season due to the characteristics of the Tampa Bay area. The tree-lined roads and elevation changes look more like something you’d see further north towards Georgia or the Carolinas.
Innisbrook has hosted the event since 2000 under various names. It runs as a Par 71 at more than 7,300 yards with Bermuda greens. It’s not a normal Par 71 either, with five Par 3s and four Par 5s.
With all the doglegs and forced stretches, Innisbrook can play quite long looking for a lot of medium or long fairways on Par 4s – and especially long Par 3s.
The most important skill to focus on this week is definitely the game approach. Innisbrook is a second-strike course and has small greens and tricky fairways that force the most second misses from within five feet on Tour.
Just looking at recent winners like Viktor Hovland, Paul Casey, Adam Hadwin, Jordan Spieth, Kevin Streelman, Luke Donald and Jim Furyk shows that not much power is required off the tee.
Instead, it requires elite irons.
How the model works
The weighted pattern this week over the last 24 rounds is 25% SG: Approach, 20% good swing percentage, 15% SG: Putting (Bermuda). 10% SG: Around the green, 10% greens in trim, 10% SG: Par 5 and 10% Par 4: 401-450 Yards.
Power ranking
(DraftKings Odds-Winning/Top 5/Top 10 with favorite choices in bold)
10. Jordan Spieth (+2,500, +490+245)
Model order: 21str
Things seem to be going in the right direction for Spieth, who finished 11th at Bay Hill and 32nd at Sawgrass. The driver remains a major problem, but his irons were fantastic last week. He won here in 2015 and added a T3 a few years ago. If he can make the accuracy count, Spieth should be a factor. Ranked 24th in SG: P (Bermuda).
9. Justin Thomas (+2250, +465, +240)
Model order: 120th
Don’t disturb the model order. Thomas was an absolute disaster in his first start at Bay Hill, which will really mar his stats for a while. But he bounced back quickly, finishing T8 last week at Sawgrass with some elite iron play and his usual solid work around the greens. Thomas has four top 10s at Innisbrook in eight tries, including a runner-up finish last year. Ranked first in SG: ARG.
8. Austin Smotherman (+5600+920, +435)
Model order: 17th
Don’t bother with Smotherman’s WD in Bay Hill. He finished T13 at Sawgrass, a strong result for a player clearly in top form right now. He also has some good results at Innisbrook. Smotherman’s swing is legitimately one of the best in the world right now. Ranked second in SG: APP.
7. Brooks Koepka (+2600, +520+265)
Model order: 32n.d
After some poor results for Koepka in his return to the Tour, Florida seems to have got him right. A T9 at PGA National and a T13 at Sawgrass featured some fantastic balls for the world No. 1, and it looks like a hot week with putters could put him back in contention. He played here once in 2022 and finished T12. Ranked 5th in SG: APP.
6. Ryo Hisatsune (+4200+720, +345)
Model order: 7th
Hisatsune’s shooting has cooled again, but he’s still recording some great results after a T13 at Sawgrass last week. The putter has been as strong and consistent as anyone in golf in 2026, and it really feels like a big win is coming very soon. He fought here last year with a T4. Ranked 8th in SG: APP.
5. Viktor Hovland (+1900, +380, +194)
Model order: 10th
The defending champion has a pair of T13 finishes in his last two starts at Bay Hill and Sawgrass, but the driver is still a legitimate concern. He has missed a significant amount of shots in four of his last five starts, but he also won here last year despite struggling with his swing. It still feels like he’s not there yet. Ranked 10th in SG: APP.
4. Jacob Bridgeman (+2250+435, +215)
Model order: 11th
Last year’s tournament was many people’s introduction to Bridgeman, who had a great chance to win on Sunday before finishing 3rd. He pushed it all the way to the Tour Championship and has now stepped up to a new level after winning at Riviera and finishing T5 last week at Sawgrass. Bridgeman now leads the FedExCup and should be the favorite this week. Ranked 20th in SG: APP.
3. Xander Schauffele (+1050, +230, +122)
Model order: 6th
Schauffele has slowly found his game early this year, and his game at Sawgrass finally felt like the Schauffele of old. He has a balance throughout the bag that very few players can match, and that should make him a threat again this week on one of the toughest courses on Tour. He has finished T12, T5 and T12 here in three tries. Ranked 14th in SG: APP.
2. Akshay Bhatia (+1950, +390, +200)
Model order: 3st
Bhatia quietly followed up his win at Bay Hill with a strong T13 at Sawgrass, despite really struggling around the green. His iron game has been absurdly good since Phoenix, which is why he’s been a factor in every start he’s made. The driver also returned last week after the struggles at Bay Hill. Ranked first in SG: APP.
1. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1450, +300+156)
Model order: 1str
It was a heartbreaking loss for Fitzpatrick at Sawgrass as he held a one-shot lead going into the 17th hole before Cameron Young made enough of a display to win by one stroke. Fitzpatrick has been trending well all year, which is why he’s been a mainstay in these power rankings. A win seems like it should come at any moment. He finished T5 here in 2022. Ranks first in SG: P (Bermuda) and SG: Par 5.
