The Players Championship: Power Rankings, Odds and Favorites

For each PGA Tour event, we’ll rank the top 10 players by odds to win, based on a weighted model, shape and course fit. Along the way, we’ll highlight some of our favorite bets.

This week, the Tour heads north to Ponte Vedra Beach for the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass.

This Week: The Players Championship

• Date: March 12-15, 2026
• Location: Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
• Course: TPC Sawgrass
• How to watch: NBC, Golf Channel, ESPN+, Peacock
• Purse: $25,000,000
• Defending champion: Rory McIlroy

What skills does the course reward?

TPC Sawgrass marks the third Florida Swing event this season.

As a Par 72 at about 7,200 yards, Sawgrass plays fairly difficult most years, depending on the weather. The famous Pete Dye designed it in 1980 with The Players in mind and it features water hazards on 14 holes, along with all the penalty bunkers we’ve come to know it for.

With its tree-lined fairways and all the hazards that lurk, Sawgrass is certainly a course that favors precision and a calculated approach around the course. Despite being just 7,200 yards with four Par 5s, the cut has been under par just twice since 2003 at The Players.

Sawgrass has often been quoted as not favoring any style of player… just the best player that week. Much of this is true, as many styles have topped the stadium course.

But there are many numbers that point to improved chances of success.

Distance at Sawgrass is relatively much less important than at the average Tour event. Much of this is due to the number of forced placements designed by Dye. Holes 1, 4, 6, 10 and 15 bring out the driver almost completely, while there are a few others that need to see less than the driver depending on the player.

Hitting the freeway, on the other hand, has often led to success. Rough on Sawgrass is not a penalty, but getting out of position for approach shots is.

Sawgrass has often been a ball hitter’s paradise when looking at past winners. Simply hitting the fairways and greens is a winning formula, and you don’t have to do much on or around the greens compared to some putting contests we’ve seen.

You don’t have to be a great player to win at The Players. That should be obvious, as guys like Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott, Henrik Stenson, Si Woo Kim and Scottie Scheffler have won here.

Like last week at Bay Hill, you get four opportunities on Par 5s here that most players can get to two if they keep it to the short stuff. It is imperative that players take advantage of these chances and clean up around the greens to make birdies when they have the chance.

Finally, I’m also looking into the Strikes Gained courses at Pete Dye this week. We often see a ton of crossover success on PGA Tour courses designed by Pete Dye. Since there are so many of them, it gives us a great database of who gets a good look at all of Dye’s intricate greens while hitting them around his mostly narrow courses.

How the model works

The weighted pattern this week over the last 24 rounds is 20% SG: Approach, 15% Greens in Fix Percentage, 15% SG: Pete Dye, 10% Good Drive Percentage, 10% SG: Off the Tee, 10% SG: Par 5, 10% SG: Around the Green: BG: Putting 10%.

Power ranking

(DraftKings Odds-Winning/Top 5/Top 10 with favorite choices in bold)

10. Maverick McNealy (+4700+790, +370)

Model order: 16^th

McNealy continues to be one of the most consistent players in golf, but he hasn’t produced the edge needed to challenge for a title since last year at Harbor Town. He was T9 here in 2024, but surprisingly hasn’t played Pete Dye courses very well in his career. Rank 17^th in SG: Par 5.

9. Cameron Young (+3200, +570, +280)

Model order: 17^th

After a slow start to the year, Young has now kicked things off with a T7 at Riviera and a T3 last week at Bay Hill. He has won in each category in those finishes, which should bode well for a course as balanced as TPC Sawgrass. The only thing holding Young back will be a poor track record at Sawgrass and Dye courses in general. Rank 5^th in SG: THERE.

8. Ludvig Aberg (+2800+530, +265)

Model order: 27^th

Like Young, Aberg is going in the right direction as of late after a T3 at Bay Hill. The ball striking was absolutely supreme and Aberg looked a lot like the guy we expected to be a top-3 player in the world. He finished 8th^th here as a debutant in 2024. Ranks 14^th in SG: Par 5.

7. Tommy Fleetwood (+2500, +450, +215)

Model order: 10^th

Fleetwood ended a long streak of top scores on Tour with 49^th-finishing the place at Bay Hill last week. It was completely out of favor, but I have no reason to believe it will continue until it becomes a trend. Fleetwood has had a lot of success on the Sawgrass and Dye courses. Rank 8^th in SG: ARG.

6. Daniel Berger (+5000, +810+375)

Model order: 6^th

Berger loves his home state. He unfortunately couldn’t close out the win last week at Bay Hill due to an absurdly short week of play from Akshay Bhatia. But Berger has been playing great golf at Sawgrass over the past few years and looks ready to get right back into contention. Order 3^st in SG: APP.

5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4100, +690, +325)

Model order: 4^th

I’m still trending high on Fitzpatrick, who finally had a down week at Bay Hill. On the plus side, his pitcher finally warmed up, which was the only thing that had kept him from claiming a win on the West Coast. He has a pair of top 10s at The Players. Order 2^n.d in SG: P (Bermuda).

4. Russell Henley (+2700, +475+230)

Model order: 5^th

Henley bounced back quickly from a rare bad week at Riviera with a smooth T6 in his title defense at Bay Hill. The irons haven’t been great yet, but it’s likely only a matter of time before they click and Henley wins again. It’s shocking to me that Henley hasn’t played Sawgrass well, but maybe this is the week. Order 11^th in SG: P (Bermuda).

3. Si Woo Kim (+2400+435, +210)

Model order: 8^th

Kim continues to drop the ball every week, and now he goes to the place where he shocked the world with a win in 2017. He has added two top 10s at Sawgrass and should feel confident this week. If he puts up well, I have to imagine he has a good shot at winning. Order 1^str in SG: APP.

2. Scottie Scheffler (+435, +102-188)

Model order: 1^str

I can’t remember the last time I didn’t have Scheffler no. 1 in the power rankings, but here we are. The form has been worrying enough to do so as he has now missed pitches with his irons in back-to-back starts. That won’t cut it here, and he also disappointed at Sawgrass last year with a T20. Order 2^n.d in SG: THERE.

1. Collin Morikawa (+2050, +390+192)

Model order: 2^n.d

There’s enough here for me to consider Morikawa the favorite this week. Since winning at Pebble Beach, Morikawa has continued to hit his irons extremely well. He has also increased his distance off the tee and finally found consistent success on and around the green. He was T10 here last year. Order 4^th in SG: APP.