Arne Slot’s Liverpool have been the dominant force in the Premier League in 2024/25, but history suggests there is hope for their arch-rivals.
A Victory by 6-3 at Tottenham it means the Reds sit at the top of the Premier League table at Christmas for the seventh time. They have only won the title once. While Manchester City are currently in no position to fight back, this statistic will certainly raise a few eyebrows in north and west London.
While Liverpool convert Christmas add-ons into titles at a poultry rate of 16.6%, 16 of their 32 Christmas table knocks have been converted. Still, the numbers show that the Reds’ current position, as imperious as it is, is far from inevitable come May 2025.
Much of the talk at this time of year surrounds the potential title winners, and City’s demise only adds to the intrigue in 2024. However, this Premier League is proving to be a little strange and stories are emerging fascinating ups and downs. the table
As it stands, we’re looking for a couple of surprise European entrants, even a continental debut, and mid-table indifference for members of the so-called ‘Big Six’. Unpredictability fades into the relegation zone with the newly promoted side struggling to compete, but Wolves’ struggles could ensure there are relegation narratives to absorb down the stretch.
Here’s how Opta’s supercomputer is projecting the 2024/25 Premier League final table to watch on Christmas Day.
|
position |
team |
Probability of reaching the final position (%) |
|---|---|---|
|
1. |
Liverpool |
86.0 |
|
2. |
arsenal |
54.0 |
|
3. |
Chelsea |
43.6 |
|
4. |
Man City |
43.9 |
|
5. |
Aston Villa |
16.9 |
|
6. |
Newcastle |
14.9 |
|
7. |
Nottingham Forest |
13.1 |
|
8. |
Bournemouth |
13.4 |
|
9. |
Tottenham |
12.1 |
|
10. |
Man Utd |
12.7 |
|
11. |
Brighton |
12.3 |
|
12. |
Fulham |
12.6 |
|
13. |
Brentford |
17.5 |
|
14. |
West Ham |
19.9 |
|
15. |
Crystal Palace |
23.9 |
|
16. |
everton |
34.9 |
|
17. |
Wolves |
30.8 |
|
18. |
Leicester |
31.6 |
|
19. |
Ipswich |
37.7 |
|
20. |
Southampton |
77.0 |
Opta is convinced by Liverpool. They give the Reds an 86% chance of winning the second Premier League title after extending their lead over second-placed Chelsea to four points at the weekend. They are six points clear of Arsenal, who Opta see as Liverpool’s biggest threat, having also played one fewer game than their London rivals.
The Gunners are currently third, but have a much better chance of winning the league than Enzo Maresca’s Blues. Opta gives arsenal a shot of 10.3% and Chelsea only a 3.1% chance.
Perennial Champions Manchester City they are seventh at Nadal and without any hope of winning a fifth consecutive title. Opta, however, has not completely given up on Pep Guardiola’s side. It is the only team, apart from those mentioned, that has more than a 0.01% chance of winning the title (0.6%).
The supercomputer backs City to bounce back in the second half of the season and disagrees with Michael Owen’s assessment, which was impressively made long before his abominable run, that City will not finish among the first four. Opta gives Guardiola’s men a 43.9% chance of finishing fourth and a 76.4% chance of finishing in the top four.
Opta is more bullish on Aston Villa and Newcastle than Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest, but the latter pair could still end the season with European football secured for next term. Forest are predicted to finish seventh and Bournemouth eighth. Coefficients and the winners of the national cup will decide if eighth is enough for the Cherries to enjoy their first taste of continental action.
Tottenham and Manchester United can still finish at the top, but both clubs would be bitterly disappointed with ninth and tenth places respectively.
London dominate the top of the bottom half, while Everton look set for a year of comfort above the relegation zone. Wolves are 18th on Christmas Day but Opta are backing new manager Vitor Pereira to guide the West Midlanders to safety. Wolves still have a 52.5% chance of going down, but Leicester (62%), Ipswich (76.9%) and Southampton (97.8%) are all favorites alongside Pereira. The Saints, who just named Ivan Juric to succeed Russell Martin, have almost been assigned to the second category. Opta gives them a 77% chance of finishing bottom of the pile when all is said and done.
