Lubin faces “Last Strike” against Ortiz Jr.

Roy Jones Jr. and Andre Ward believes that Saturday’s fight will be Erickson Lubin’s “last strike” in his career if he loses to Vergil Ortiz Jr. in their main line on DAZN.

Credit: Golden Boy / Cris Esqueda

It would be the 30-year-old Lubin’s third loss and would potentially end his chances of ever receiving another world title opportunity.

Ward does not see any more rebuilds

Podcaster and former two-division world champion Ward notes that Lubin (27-2, 19 KOs) has gone through two rebuilds in the past after his losses to Jermell Charlo in 2017 and Sebastian Fundora in 2022. He was younger then and had time to climb back.

“To beat someone like Vergil, I would basically replace him,” Erickson said Golden Boy about what he stands to achieve by Ortiz Jr.

Ortiz Jr. (23-0, 21 KOs) and Lubin will square off this Saturday, Oct. 8, at the Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas, in a 12-round bout.

“This might be Lubin’s third fight. If he gets knocked out this time, he might not get another shot. I’m hoping Lubin can get a break, but it’s going to be tough because Vergil Ortiz is peaking right now. I think he’s the best matchup for a guy like ‘Boots’ Ennis,” said Roy Jones Jr. All the Smoke.

In theory, Lubin could rebuild if he does it quickly and takes risks by facing top-10-level contenders at 154. But the question is, can he defeat enough fighters to claw his way back? Erickson will have to beat some of these top guys to come back quickly:

• Brandon Adams
• Israel Madrimov
• Tim Tszyu
• Charles Conwell

“You have Lubin, who always looks like he’s in a rebuild. He had the Charlo situation. He’s in a rebuild. Then he had the Sebastian Fundora, and he got stopped in the ninth round,” Ward said. “Vergil Ortiz is peaking. This is the best I’ve seen him in his last fight. Erickson Lubin has to fight the perfect fight. Not because he can’t take a shot. I believe this is a last ditch effort for Lubin.”

Lubin’s long road since Charlo

It’s not like Lubin is always rebuilding. The problem is that he spent too much time coming back from his first-round knockout loss to former undisputed 154-lb champion Jermell Charlo on October 14, 2017.

In hindsight, Erickson should never have fought the then 27-year-old Charlo. Lubin was only 22 and hadn’t fought anyone near the level of Jermell going into that fight. That was the first mistake. The second burned through five years of tweaks before going up against ‘The Towering Inferno’ Fundora on April 9, 2022.

Lubin does have a good chance to beat Vergil Jr. dethroned on Saturday night, as long as he did as Madrimov did earlier this year. He can’t stand and fight Ortiz Jr because he doesn’t pack enough power to win that kind of fight. ‘The Hammer’ Lubin needs to move just enough to get out of the way of Ortiz Jr. to stay, but he can’t overdo it like Madrimov did. He will be gassed out and at the mercy of Vergil’s shots.