Joel Dahmen earned his PGA Tour card in dramatic fashion. Here’s the catch

Joel Dahmen pursuit of a PGA Tour card it was definitely the most resonant story of the fall season. With 125 cards available, the Tour fan favorite entered the final week of the season at No. 124, with his future in serious jeopardy. A double 7 late in Saturday’s round appeared to doom his chances – but then he bounced back with a Sunday 64 that catapulted him to No. 124, right where he had started the week and just inside the number.

But according to people in DataGolfyou could reason that Dahmen’s 2025 PGA Tour status might actually be make it more difficult to return for him to return in 2026. Had he missed the top 125, Dahmen could have opted to play a Korn Ferry Tour schedule, and by their calculations, it’s actually easier to earn PGA Tour status through the KFT -‘s than to carry it during the tournament.

To be clear, no one is suggesting that Dahmen should have finished in the top 125. Being on the PGA Tour is the whole point, after all. Money, degrees, points, benefits, dreams, goodies. Dahmen’s job is to maximize all of that, not just hold onto his card for 2026. It’s also hard to predict what Dahmen 2025 would look like if he had finished, say, #126, and played a mix of KFT and PGA Tour events. But it’s still an interesting lens through which to explore the changes in the PGA Tour structure, which will see cards reduced from 125 to 100 at the end of next season and KFT alumni reduced from 30 to 20.

What does the math say? According to DataGolf’s excellent newsletterthe top 100 player on Tour has averaged +0.16 “true strokes gained” per round over the past 20 years, though in the last two years, in the era of LIV poaching, that number has dropped to +0.05. But compare that to position no. 20 in KFT, who averages -0.36 true SG/round. By that measure, the same quality of golf could earn you a PGA Tour card from the KFT and lose you your job on the PGA Tour. (This was also true with the previous card format.) It also stands to reason that KFT graduates often find it difficult to keep their cards; the same level that got them to the Tour isn’t always good enough to keep them there.

Dahmen didn’t know those numbers, of course. But he, like every Tour pro, is aware that keeping his job is getting harder.

“I need to improve a ton,” he said after his final round, then checked himself. “No huh tonebut i need to improve to be in top 100.

“I’ve been saying this for a long time: my swing is Top 30 in the world. I just need to get better at other things and be more consistent with my approach on Thursday and Friday rounds to play the way I can play.”

This is settled: In golf’s most important statistic, the approach game, Dahmen was No. 16 on Tour this season. He was excellent off the tee as well, finishing 40th in strokes gained in that department. He actually led the tournament in average proximity to the hole, averaging six inches closer than world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler. But he struggled Thursday (145th in scoring average) compared to Friday (14th, more than a stroke and a half better). He finished the season ranked 181st in shooting as well. In other words, there are many bright spots, but there is also room for improvement.

“I showed how I can play under pressure today, how to bring it,” concluded Dahmen. “And my round on Friday as well, I think it was one of the best rounds on Friday at Seaside (when he rallied to make the cut). Two of the biggest pressure moments of my career appeared. And I can take that forward and I can start at Sony as well.”

It’s safe to say that Dahmen will take his chances in the big tournament.

“>