By Brad Marchetti: The Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua odds have been out for two weeks, and the sharps have hammered Paul enough to push the Joshua -2000 line down into the -1000 to -950 range.
The 36-year-old Joshua, 28-4 with 25 KOs, will have been inactive for 14 months when he steps into the ring with Paul. He is coming off a fight in which he was beaten from pillar to post by Daniel Dubois despite entering as a -550 boxing betting favourite.
Paul, 12-1 with 7 KOs, was dominant in his most recent outing, scoring a one-sided decision over former WBC middleweight champion Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. as a -700 favorite. With a tidal wave of betting action pouring into Paul, it raises an interesting question. Is everyone wrong to assume that Jake Paul is simply a club fighter draped in fame and fortune?
Before I give my official pick and betting advice, I have one question for all the fanatics, media members, promoters and general playa haters. Why do most people seem to dislike Jake Paul? Last I checked, the guy was never in the news for any scandal, arrest, or general bad behavior. Paul cuts checks to his female fighters who have more zeros than ever as a true ambassador for women’s boxing.
Paul could go down as the most self-promoting athlete of all time and topple Muhammad Ali, who would inspire ambitious entrepreneurs everywhere. The kicker for me is that he has his own bookmaker service at Betr Picks. By all accounts, he seems like a cool guy with a sense of humor, a tireless work ethic, and brass balls. Hell, I want to drink a beer with a G like that.
Yet almost every promoter has taken a shot at him at one point or another. Here’s a list of promoters Paul called a pretender rather than a contender: Eddie Hearn, Dana White, Bob Arum, Turki Alalshikh and Lou DiBella. All I can say is watch out for a big hitting heavyweight who wants his respect. When a prizefighter feels slighted in a game that commands respect, he is at his most dangerous.
In 1962, Benny “Kid” Paret hurled homophobic slurs at Emile Griffith before their middleweight title fight, and Griffith put him in a casket. Paul has been scorned in every possible way and wants to prove that he is the genuine article. Can he do it? As a former boxing oddsmaker, I break down what many consider to be a David vs. Goliath match to find the real Jake Paul vs. Uncover Anthony Joshua betting odds.
Good luck
Joshua is contracted to come in at a maximum of 245 pounds. This appears to be a smart move on Paul’s part. It could be argued that the 245-pound and up version of Joshua is better than the leaner 235 to 240 version. Mass plus power plus acceleration equals punching power, and Joshua relies heavily on being a puncher. Paul looked formidable at 227 pounds when he fought Mike Tyson in his heavyweight debut, but could come in a few pounds lighter to maximize his speed advantage around 220 pounds.
Height and use of reach
Joshua is 6’6″ tall with long arms, but he has never been known as a dominant outside fighter. Despite being a shorter heavyweight at 6’1″, Paul fights taller than his height suggests because he uses a less square stance than Joshua. Despite Paul maximizing his shorter reach, this is Joshua’s biggest advantage aside from experience.
Right Hand Power
Jake Paul’s right hand is one of the better weapons in boxing, and he knows how to throw it straight or as a hook with real authority. In recent attacks, a punishing hand aimed at the hip and ribcage area has also become a reliable tool.
Paul’s uppercut is a work in progress, but it lands with force. Joshua’s right cross and uppercut have made him a rich man, but he is not an everyday puncher like George Foreman, Earnie Shavers or Mike Tyson. Joshua also tends to pressure his shots with stiff-arm punches. Punch for punch, Joshua’s uppercut gives him a modest edge.
Left Hand Power
Neither fighter goes down in the book of all-time great left hooks, but Paul’s long whip angle is almost on par with Joshua’s more fundamental hook. Paul’s jab has more snap, while Joshua’s jab is heavier. The left upper is not a great weapon for either.
Hand speed
This is one area that even sharp boxing minds overlook. AJ is not a speed fighter, and Paul has fast hands for a heavyweight. Add in 28-year-old reflexes versus 36-year-old reflexes, and Paul has the advantage.
Accuracy
Joshua has plenty of knockouts, evidence that he can hit the target, but his lack of a consistent jab and tendency to lose his temper has hurt him. Paul will improve with more experience, but his one-touch knockouts show that he knows how to set traps and land cleanly.
Stamina
Neither fighter wins a marathon. Joshua has slightly better stamina due to his experience. With it being an eight-round fight, Paul set the distance almost perfectly because he tends to fade around the eighth. His stamina will improve, but that’s a question mark.
Defense
Under trainer Ben Davison, Joshua fought with his hands low and his chin high, creating defensive vulnerabilities. He is still not an easy target due to his height and hitting power, but defense is not his forte. Paul’s defense is still developing, but he has quick feet and uses his broad shoulders well to parry punches. Paul also saves more often than Joshua, which helps sharpen defensive timing.
Ken
I’ve always believed Joshua was porcelain, similar to former British champion Frank Bruno. Joshua has the heart and strength to stand up, but anything with modest strength tends to make him falter. Paul’s chin will face its toughest test, but the bullneck Ohio fighter has never been dropped or seriously hurt in a professional fight.
Dexterity
Paul has quick feet and uses them well when boxing behind the jab, although he sometimes overcommits and gets off balance. Joshua has never been known for quick footwork and does not possess much rhythm.
Jab
Joshua will never look like Larry Holmes even if he had a 747 wingspan. Aj’s jab has improved as he’s developed into an outside jabber, but isn’t a dominant weapon. Paul’s jab from the hip makes it difficult for taller fighters like Joshua to track and it can often find the target to the upper body. Joshua’s reach gives him the advantage, but Paul’s jab can help him control the fight.
Intelligence
Paul is much less experienced than Joshua, but he is awkward, tricky and a smart counterpuncher. “El Gallo” brought in Andy Ruiz, the man who beat Joshua, to help design a match plan similar to Ruiz’s. Antony has the gold medal pedigree and world title experience, but he isn’t making big adjustments in the ring.
Final score
Anthony Joshua vs Jake Paul Predictions and Best Bets
Every battle is won or lost before it is ever fought. -Sun Tzu
Based on my score, Joshua is the real favorite, but his odds are inflated because the public perception of Joshua is inflated, and Paul’s skills are underrated. Based on the numbers, I’d peg Joshua as a 3/1 favourite.
For this fight, Paul brought in three top-20 contenders to spare. Jared Anderson at 6-foot-4 and 255 pounds, 18-1 with 15 knockouts. Frank Sanchez at 6-foot-4 and 238 pounds, 25-1 with 18 knockouts. Lawrence Okolie at 6-foot-5 and 260 pounds, 22-1 with 16 knockouts. It would be hard to find a better trio to prepare for the fight with the big Joshua.
Statistically, Anthony Joshua was one of the biggest money-burners in heavyweight betting history. AJ lost as a 25/1 favorite to Andy Ruiz, as a 4/1 favorite to Oleksandr Usyk, and most recently as an 11/2 favorite to Daniel Dubois. It’s not the big boys’ fault that he never lived up to his gold medal expectations set as the successor to Lennox Lewis.
The United Kingdom often hypes its champions into demigods. In truth, Joshua is lucky to have gotten as far as he has, with benefits that resemble the treatment of mob-protected fighters from the 1950s. To preserve Matchroom Boxing’s cash register, Joshua had the benefit of biased referees and favorable judges in most of his bouts. With Jake Paul’s Most Valuable Promotions co-presenting the event, Jake may be able to level the playing field.
Boxing rewards fighters who are active and hungry. Joshua has been inactive for 454 days, and his desire to compete at the highest level is worth questioning. It could be argued that AJ peaked when he knocked out Wladimir Klitschko in 2017. Since then, he’s gone through a laundry list of coaches in search of an in-ring identity he’s never truly found. He started out as a seek-and-destroy assassin who walked down opponents. Since the Ruiz knockout in 2019, Joshua has become cautious and reactive, mostly boxing off the back foot uncertainly. Something left Joshua the night Andy Ruiz toppled him.
Bringing in Ruiz was a brilliant move by “The Problem Child”. Jake has quick hands and quick counter punching instincts similar to Andy’s that Joshua can give. Styles make fights. Many pundits point to Joshua’s destruction of Francis Ngannou as empirical evidence of what he can do against an inexperienced foe, but Ngannou fights in a completely different style. The current version of the Matchroom machine fights with his chin up and his left hand down, which is a perfect ally for Paul’s Sunday right hand. Paul’s athleticism and foot speed will also make it difficult for the set punching Joshua to hit a moving target.
Expect Paul to constantly move and use explosive bursts that prevent Joshua from finding a rhythm. While many expect a knockout, I believe Paul will hold, move and hold his way to a close decision on the shortcut. Jake’s flicking jab from the hip in a Paulie Malignaggi-esque way will help him dictate the pace. AJ will try to change into the hungry power hitter who smartly applied pressure in his prime, but once he feels the YouTuber’s heavy hands, he won’t be able to shake the shadows in his mind of the Dubois knockout.
If the fight goes to the scorecards and Joshua fails to knock out Paul, many will claim the solution is in. Jake will pocket his cool $92 million laugh and put out W body spray in the eyes of his detractors who called him a fraud. Even if the masses refuse to give Paul proper credit after beating Joshua, one thing is certain. The world will watch whoever the MVP of boxing will fight next.
Joshua vs Paul Best Bets
Paul +550 money line (3 units)
Sign +1800 (1 unit)
Last updated on 12/09/2025
