Halfway through the 2026 Masters, it’s the 2025 champion, Rory McIlroy, again at the top of the leaderboard. McIlroy won his first green jacket and finished his Grand Slam career with a winning score of 11 last April. In his title defense, McIlroy has already eclipsed that number and leads by six shots at 12 under through two rounds in Augusta National Golf Club.
After shooting a 67 on Day 1, the five-time major champion closed Day 2 with four straight birdies and a seven-under 65. Sam Burns shared the lead with McIlroy coming into Friday but is now six behind. Patrick Reed, the 2018 champion, is also six under.
With 36 holes still to go to decide the 90th Masters, McIlroy is a huge -280 favorite to become the first back-to-back winner since Tiger Woods in 2001 and 2002 and only the fourth ever repeat champion in tour history. His six-stroke lead is the longest 36-hole lead at the Masters.
Fleetwood and Reed are the second choices on the board and are currently 18-1. The gap between the favorite and the rest of the pack is cavernous. Rose is 20-1 and Burns 22-1 to win.
Most sportsbooks would like to see McIlroy in the Butler Cabin on Sunday night, as the defending champion was not heavily backed by punters heading into the event. The biggest pre-tournament liability at BetMGM was Bryson DeChambeau, who missed the cut after a triple 7 on the 18th hole on Friday.
So what do we do now for the weekend? No, I’m not betting on McIlroy at -280 with so much golf left and on a course that is likely to get stronger, faster and more difficult. Here’s what I’m thinking with 36 to play.
Justin Rose (20-1)
What if you take a shot at last year’s runner-up? Rose was being offered anywhere from 30-1 to 35-1 pre-tournament. He’s now tied for fourth and we’re still getting 20-1 – I don’t mind that. Rose ranks fourth in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and SG: Approach, although he has been a bit off his putting. In his career, Rose has been one of the best players on these greens at Augusta National. If he continues to play the way he’s been going and the pitcher starts to heat up, he could be right there with Rory at the bottom once again.
Cameron Young (27-1)
Young played alongside McIlroy for the first two rounds of the tournament. He shot the first nine Thursday in 40 and the other 27 in eight under. He was inches away from making five straight birdies on the second nine on Friday. He’s gaining nearly two strokes off the ball, ranks seventh in the field for SG: Tee to Green but, like Rose, Young’s putter has yet to find the sweet spot. (Young was one of our original pre-tournament selections at 28-1. Let’s see if he can make it three-time champions of players who have also won the green jacket in the same season.)
Shane Lowry (33-1)
Wouldn’t it be something to see Rory and Lowry, two best friends, fighting each other? Similar to the profiles of Rose and Young, Lowry ranks sixth in SG: Tee to Green and is second in approach, but the putter has yet to catch up as he’s gaining just over half a stroke on the field. If he can find it, he also poses a real threat to McIlroy over the weekend.
A top-five play for each of these followers is also worth considering. To round out the top five, Rose is +170, Young is +200 and Lowry is +250. And considering that each of these three players is ranked 60th or better on Tour in SG: 2026, things should be looking up for each of them during the flat club weekend.
Brady Kannon is an experienced golf bettor and commentator. He is a regular host and guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network dedicated to sports and sports betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow Brady on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer.
