By Martin Graham
Italy Manager Gennaro Gattuso entered the international window already unsatisfied, and his irritation only grew ahead of the defeat against Norway confirmed that Italy’s path to the 2026 World Cup would depend again on the qualifiers. For a country that failed to reach the finals in both 2018 and 2022 due to playoff exits, the prospect of another high-stakes path understandably worries Italian fans.
The expanded tournament to the United States, Mexico and Canada will feature 48 nations for the first time next summer. Despite picking up six wins from eight games, Italy finished behind Norway and now face two one-off games to secure a place in the finals they reached in 1934, 1938, 1982 and 2006.
Gattuso argued that strong form from the group should ensure qualification. He pointed to South America’s six direct entries and Africa’s nine venues as examples of systems that, in his view, give other regions a smoother path to the World Cup.
However, some points he raised were inaccurate. Africa had three representatives in 1994, not two, and seventh-placed South America is not guaranteed a meeting with Oceania. Also, the runners-up did not always qualify directly in 1990, and Denmark missed out that year.
Is Europe facing a tougher road ahead?
The European classification has become more complex as the number of participating nations has increased. In 1990, 32 sides competed for places; by 1994, that number had increased to 39. Today, 54 teams are trying to claim one of the 16 World Cup spots. As participation expanded, maintaining larger groups became impractical.
A group of six or seven teams would require more games than there are in the current international calendar. To make the schedule sustainable, UEFA opted for smaller groups, reducing travel and intensity, ironically contradicting Gattuso’s argument for a format change.
Italy, top seed in their group, were drawn alongside Norway, a fast-improving side who defeated them twice by a combined score of 7-1. Although the system can be unforgiving, Italy did not help themselves in the most significant matches.
How does South America compare?
On the surface, the road to South America looks easier. Ten nations compete; six qualify directly, and a seventh goes to the intercontinental play-off. That means 60% of teams progress, compared to less than 30% in Europe.
But the competitive landscape in the region is different. Eight of the ten nations are ranked in the world’s top 50, and even the bottom side, Bolivia, ranks higher than many European countries. The fixture list is also demanding: teams travel long distances across nine international windows and play twice each break, often against elite opposition.
Brazil progressed with six defeats, but faced much stronger average opposition than Italy, whose toughest opponents at the start of the campaign were ranked 43rd.
The growing representation of Africa
Africa’s allocation rose to nine qualifiers for 2026. Apart from debutant Cape Verde, the continent’s representatives — such as Egypt, Morocco, Senegal and Ivory Coast — are established presences at major tournaments. Six of these nations occupy the top 50 positions, with Ghana the lowest at 73rd.
Statistically, Africa takes up around 21% of the guaranteed places, while providing 14% of the top 50 teams, a slight over-allocation but not strongly contradicting the merit. By contrast, Europe accounts for almost half of the world’s top nations, but receives only a third of the slot slots, a marked reduction from more than 50% in the 1990s.
The confederation with the most disproportionate rise is Asia, which now receives eight direct entries despite having just four teams in the top 50.
Is Gattuso vindicated or just disappointed?
Gattuso’s concerns contain bits of truth, especially regarding the reduction of Europe’s quota of places at the World Cup. However, his argument downplays Europe’s structural advantages and overlooks Italy’s shortcomings in the field. Although the numbers show some imbalance in the overall distribution, sympathy for Italy is limited given their repeated struggles in decisive matches.
