Swinging strike; CC’ under license 2.0
Angel Hernandez, one of the most disliked referees of all time, has just retired. His being terrible at his job was one of the few things almost all baseball fans could agree on, and he will probably be the most hated umpire of all time in all of history. Not because he was so insanely bad, but because MLB is only a few years away from adding robot umpires to the game. Robot Umpires, or more technically known as an ABS system (Automated Ball Strike system), has been wanted by some MLB fans for a while now, and it’s slowly making its way to the MLB.
The ABS system was first used in the 2019 Atlantic League All-Star Game where they used it throughout the game. There are two types of ABS system use. These are the use of the full game, where every ball and strike from the system is fed to the umpire, and the challenge system, where the umpire calls the entire game, but each team is allowed to challenge a certain number of pitches, regardless of that. strikes or strikes. In 2023, the minor leagues added an ABS system to every Triple-A ballpark. It worked so that teams played 6 games against one opponent each week. Three of those games will be full ABS games and three will use the challenge system.
They are still trying to fix the system and the way it is implemented. They experimented with giving teams a certain number of challenges, wrong challenges, and just about every other way to use this system. Obviously, they want to get it as perfect as possible before rolling it out to MLB, which Rob Manfred said will almost certainly happen in 2026 at the absolute earliest. Players, coaches, managers and referees have had mixed reviews of the system, but overall consensus seems to be leaning in a positive direction.
However, one question that hasn’t been talked about enough is what will happen to the catcher position once implemented. Generally, that decision comes down to whether they would rather implement a full ABS system or a challenge system. When it comes to the challenge system, Baseball America says:Aside from the popularity of the players, the other benefit of the challenge system is that it maintains the importance of attractive framing as a skill. With full ABS, there’s no need for catchers to frame pitches that save or steal a hit. With the challenge system and umpires still calling balls and shots, that skill holds value.” What I want to answer today is what would happen if, hypothetically, MLB implemented the full ABS system instead of the challenge system.
Catchers in their current state are the game managers of MLB teams. The game depends a lot on how well your catcher calls the game and how much they can help their pitcher. In a close comparison, I would say they are almost like a defensive coordinator in the NFL. Their job is to know the tendencies of the opposing team’s players and be able to adjust to hot and cold players in the middle of the game. This is why many MLB fans say catchers make the best managers, like Joe Torre or Mike Scioscia. They usually have the highest baseball IQ, which translates very well to management. This new system could make a difference in how a catcher’s IQ and defense are rated.
Framing is a skill that has become increasingly important over the past few years. With the addition of a full ABS system, we will obviously see the importance of that skill diminish completely. Now, obviously, there are other defensive skills that catchers will still need, such as throwing out runners, blocking balls in the dirt, and a good baseball IQ to call a good play. However, when the frame is removed, the main component is lost. This will cause teams to care less about getting a defensively competent catcher out and focus more on offense. More likely, if a catcher has an OPS+ under 100, he better be great defensively at everything. This applies to catchers like Tucker Barnhart, Roberto Perez, Martin Maldonado, Austin Hedges and many others. These catchers have insane defensive skill to make up for their complete lack of offense. They all rank high in above-average blocks and above-average steals, both stats for a baseball savant. Even with that, many of these catchers weren’t even starting catchers on their teams. If they were, they only started for 1-2 years before the team found someone better to take their place.
Then there are catchers who are pretty good at just one thing without framing. If you look at the last 5 years, Jacob Stallings is first in blocks above average with 59, but is 41st in steals above average with -4. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Christian Betancourt is 4th in above-average steals with 11, but 57th in above-average blocks with -12. Both of these players aren’t good offensively, so without their elite pitching skills in place, it’s catchers like this who are most likely to lose their jobs, even if most of them are backups. They simply lose the value they previously brought to the team. This is especially true of catchers whose only thing they brought to the table was their frame, like Tyler Flowers. He always ranked high in Catcher Framing Runs, but had an above-average -13 Caught Steals and an above-average -3 Blocks. He had a few slightly above-average offensive seasons, but ultimately he was pretty bad offensively as well. Catchers like him wouldn’t really get a chance at the MLB level again.
Personally, I’m in favor of adding a challenge system. Obviously, in the big moment of the game, if what would have been a huge hit in the moment ends up being a walk because the umpire made an error, the pitcher shouldn’t be penalized for being bad at his job as an umpire. However, I do not support the full ABS system. First, refereeing imperfections have always been a part of the game. Stealing strikes as a catcher is ultimately a skill that some catchers have perfected and some haven’t, and is ultimately a key part of the game. It’s a craft they’ve worked to perfect, so I think it would be a mistake to remove that skill entirely. Defensive prowess has been what has produced some of the most beloved catchers of our generation. For example, Yadier Molina is one of the most popular catchers of the 21st century. Offensively, he finished his career with an OPS+ of 96; below league average. The reason fans loved him was because he was an insanely talented defender behind the plate. He finished with 130 DRS, 2nd ever at the catcher’s position. I know the fans want to see more offense, but I believe when the defense becomes secondary, the fans will notice and they won’t like it.
Second, this shift may very well end up creating what running backs have become in the NFL. Removing something that uses this position can cause them to become more expensive. It sounds extreme, and it is a bit much, but if catchers are no longer game managers, ultimately the position suffers, as well as the team as a whole. Teams will eventually select Gary Sanchez over Jose Trevino. Obviously, fans would like a player to score more runs, but you don’t realize how important it is to have a good defensive catcher until you don’t.
I will admit that this article is almost entirely speculation. Nor is it the only part of the game that will be affected by the ABS system. There is always a learning curve with new technology. Umpires will slowly become a thing of the past, both hitters and pitchers will change their approach, and it will even lead to fewer strikeouts. But I think the catcher’s position will affect it, if not one of the most important aspects. We will see what comes of it in the next few years and if my assumptions are correct. It all depends on Rob Manfred and what his agenda is. The game of baseball is forever changing and evolving, and this is the next step in its evolution.
