Seth Lugo plays for the Kansas City Royals; Licensed by CC 2.0
Seth Lugo completely defied expectations in his first season in Kansas City. The Royals signed Lugo to a two-year, $30 million contract through the 2024 offseason with a player option for the 2026 season. The move fell by the wayside as players like Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto stole the spotlight this past offseason. However, Lugo has revived his career by pitching like an ace for the Royals. The 34-year-old made his first All-Star team in 2024. His story is one of the most intriguing in the MLB 24 season, and Seth Lugo’s performance this year is sure to earn him a lot of respect from the baseball community.
Lugo was selected in the 34th round of the 2011 MLB Draft by the New York Mets. The 1,032nd overall pick began his career in 2016 as a false starting pitcher. He split his 17 games with eight starts on the mound and the rest of his appearances were pitching. The Mets didn’t know how to use Lugo’s arm, as they would never commit to him becoming a full-time starter during his seven seasons with the team.
In 2023, Lugo signed a contract with the San Diego Padres. This season was the one where he proved he could hold his own as a starting pitcher. In 26 starts and 146.1 innings, he posted a 3.57 ERA with 140 strikeouts and a 118 ERA+ (18% better than league average). This season he earned his contract with the Royals and he hasn’t looked back since.
Before I get into Lugo’s percentage ranking for the “24” season, a personal anecdote is in order to explain my reasoning for writing this article. Based on his lackluster percentages though A baseball savantI decided his luck would eventually run out. I couldn’t have been more wrong. At this point in our league season, he is #1: starting pitcher in runs and just pitched a complete game against the White Sox. Sometimes savant percentages lie and cause regret in fantasy leagues around the world.
A look at Lugo’s standard stats this season will impress any fan of the game. He leads the American League in innings pitched (136), strikeouts (543) and ERA+ (180). He also leads American League qualified starters in ERA at 2.38. Furthermore, as mentioned above, he just threw a complete game to go along with his 12 wins on the season. Not bad for a rookie who was kicked out to the bullpen in Queens not too long ago.
However, the most interesting thing about Lugo this season is his on-base percentage no impressive. Most dominant teams in the league have dominant hitting percentages to back up their success. Not Seth Lugo. In fact, this case may end up being one of the strangest, successful, Cy-Young caliber performances in recent history.
When it comes to Baseball Savant’s Run-Value percentages, Lugo is among the best in baseball. His overall Pitching Run-Value falls in the 100th percentile, and his Fastball Run-Value and Breaking Run-Value both sit in the 98th spot. Those rankings, along with 64th in Offspeed Run-Value and 84th in Walk Percentage, are the only rankings that stand out for Lugo. All of his other ratings point to a pitcher who is nothing special, a stark contrast to the season Lugo had.
The clearest sign of Lugo’s luck is his expected stats. His xERA and xBA are in the 52nd and 40th percentiles, respectively. His xERA is a full 1.49 runs above his actual ERA. His xBA is 29 points higher than his true batting average. Other concerning percentages include 40th in Average Exit Speed, 36th in Hard-Hit, 33rd in Whiff and 41st in Chase. You could see why I decided to drop him at the start of the season. His ranks heavily suggest he should have some regression. But Lugo refuses to return to Earth.
This unprecedented success may be due to the fact that this is Lugo’s first season in the American League. That can cause opposing players to take longer than expected to adjust to his repertoire. Speaking of repertoire, Lugo is unique in that he uses nine different pitches to rack up outs. According to Baseball Savant, he throws a four-seam fastball, sinker, curveball, slider, jumper, cutter, changeup, sweeper and split-finger. Having nine unique pitches and pitching in a new league is certainly a combination that could lead to some success.
Overachieving or not, Seth Lugo is having a career year in 2024. He is well on his way to career highs in innings and strikeouts. Kansas City has emerged as one of the most exciting teams in baseball, and Seth Lugo has been the most unexpected star to help the Royals rebuild.
