Travis Bazana, who plays for Cleveland’s minor league affiliate, the Lake County Captains; Licensed by CC 2.0
Another draft cycle has come and gone, and many of last summer’s draft class have begun their professional careers. Before the draft, our team worked on a list of the 15 best hitters available; here. Today we’re going to check out some of the collegiate bats we highlighted in that article that competed in the minor leagues. Unfortunately, we don’t have much in the way of fly ball data for most of these guys, but they’ve played enough games to make some of these trends statistically significant.
Travis Bazzana, Guardians, A+
The first overall pick made a fairly successful transition to pro ball, though he struggled a bit. At A+, he is currently hitting .238 with a .765 OPS. He is posting a .340 wOBA, which is above average. He’s still posting the same impressive contact numbers he posted throughout his time at Oregon State, but he’s been a little more passive at the plate, only swinging at pitches 38.4% of the time and under 60% of the time at groundouts. : strike zone. Keepers are likely making a conscious decision to work with Bazana and take advantage of his pitch recognition and swing decisions. With the success the big league club is having, they are in no rush to fast-track him to the majors, and now is a great time to take a step back and work on his approach in his first season of pro ball. Expect swing decisions to become more aggressive early next year, allowing his raw power to stand out a bit more. The softball skills have been preserved in the transition to pro ball, highlighted by his 81.4 zCon% and absurd 71.4% oCon%. There’s obviously still some development and aggressiveness to step up for him, but Bazzana has proven he can and deserves the first overall pick.
Charlie Condon, Rockies, A+
Charlie Condon had a monster year at the University of Georgia in 2024, but his performance so far in pro ball has left a lot to be desired. At the 100 at-bat mark in A+, Condon is hitting .180 with one home run and a .518 OPS. Much of this has to do with some serious swing and miss issues that raise some pretty bright yellow flags (so far) about his ability to consistently handle advanced pitching. He whiffs on over a third of the pitches he sees, his oCon% is 25.9, and he posts a 34:4 K/BB ratio. His zCon% is also a bit alarming at 73.5%. By comparison, that number was 89.6% during his college season. Some of these major problems can be attributed to fatigue. He had a long college season and didn’t have much of a break before starting his professional career. But in the video I’ve seen, he looks pretty uncomfortable in the box and hasn’t been able to consistently get the ball in the air, an issue that was somewhat apparent at UGA that I raised some concerns about in the article above. . Hopefully the pitching for Condon and the Rockies will improve after his first pro season and some rest. The raw power is still, obviously, incredibly attractive, but unfortunately not as effective unless he’s going to play the ball in the air.
JJ Wetherholt, Cardinals, A’s
Fortunately, we have Statcast data on Wetherholt for his time in A-ball so far. Through 105 at bats, Wetherholt is slashing .295/.405/.400 with 2 home runs and a .361 wOBA. Indeed, all of its underlying metrics look good, too. He doesn’t chase a ton, he consistently displays impressive bat-to-ball ability, and shows above-average raw power, evident with a 105.3 90% EV and 109.2 max EV. He walks at a higher rate than he strikes out, and he’s selective with his swing decisions. This puts him in the bullpen and allows him to use both his clean, advanced hitting tool and above-average power to punish opposing pitchers. Pitchers have struggled to find a good way to attack him because he has put up really solid numbers against all types of pitches. Against breaking balls, he’s posting a ridiculous .674 xwOBACON (essentially a measure of how much damage he’s expected to take when he makes contact), though his strikeout rate on these pitches hovers around 30%. He produces similar numbers against fastballs and doesn’t swing or miss a ton on them, posting a blistering 17.1% strike rate. Off speed pitches like changeups can be a way to attack him because he doesn’t do as much damage, but even against them he only swings and misses 13.3% of the time. Wetherholt is currently a nightmare for pitchers in A-ball, and he’s showing why he was ranked as a top prospect before his hamstring injury.
Jac Caglianone, Royals, A+
Caglianone has been quite impressive early in his professional career. Through 115 at bats, he is slashing .241/.302/.388 with 2 home runs and a .298 wOBA. The production and total power numbers may seem a little low, but that’s natural as one enters professional baseball. The power is still there and will start to show as he adjusts to professional pitching. He’s showing the same aggressiveness he showed in Florida last year, but the breathing rate doesn’t show that bad because they are currently at 26.4%. He consistently makes contact in the zone, posting an 82.8% zCon rate, but the chase is currently 45.6%, which is actually up from the 38% clip he posted during his season at Florida. This is somewhat mitigated by his great range outside the zone and his ability to cover long bats. He makes contact on pitches out of the zone 61.3% of the time, which is a decent number, but still not enough to completely overcome the pursuit issues. I’d like to see him swing less as he finishes the season. This will hopefully allow him to get a better feel for the strike zone and help soften his approach a bit.
Nick Kurtz, Athletics, AA
Kurtz only played in 12 professional baseball games, but after a week of A ball games where he hit .400 with 4 home runs, he was promoted to AA. Going into the draft, I felt that Kurtz’s mature approach, above-average fastball skills and plus power would translate quickly to pro ball, and he has had as seamless a transition as you can get. There’s still not enough data to really reveal any meaningful trends, but his 20% whisper rate so far is certainly promising. He hasn’t slowed much in his 5 games at the AA level, but again, it’s too early to worry about that fact.
James Tibbs III, Giants, A+
Through 108 at bats, Tibbs is slashing .241/.293/.343 with 2 home runs and 5 doubles. Although it’s early days, Tibbs has run into some real issues. He currently has a 36:8 K/BB ratio, is posting a slugging percentage of just under 33%, and has a 71.2 zCon%. On the bright side, he doesn’t expand the zone much, but the inability to walk combined with swings and misses has me pretty concerned right now. He also doesn’t impact the baseball and doesn’t really hurt, as highlighted by his .208 wOBA, which is well below average. This makes for a nasty three-headed beast, with the yellow/red flags thus far in pro ball being troubling, however, I’m not going all the way because we’ve seen him be a consistent performer at all levels. Adjusting to pro ball is a huge adjustment and a full offseason should allow him and the Giants to really work on these issues and hopefully return to the consistency he showed in his collegiate career.
Smith has been perhaps the best and most consistent performer from this draft class thus far. Through 96 at bats, he is slashing .323/.412/.635 with 7 home runs. The swings looked extremely comfortable, confident and explosive. He’s producing at a high level, as evidenced by his .392 wOBA, which is comfortably above average. Unfortunately, there’s no real ball data available on him yet, but the underlying metrics look incredibly promising as well. He swings and misses just over 20% of the time and posts an 87.1 zCon%, both good marks and above average. However, he still has a bit of a problem expanding the zone, swinging outside the zone at a 33.6% rate. It hasn’t seemed to slow him down yet, but it has limited his walk numbers and will only continue to become more apparent as he progresses through pro ball.
Christian Moore, Angels, AA
As is typical of the Los Angeles Angels, Moore was the first player to reach AA in the 2024 draft, though it wasn’t for nothing. In 2 games with A ball, Moore had 6 hits, including 2 doubles and a home run. His success has largely continued in AA, where he is slashing .302/.355/.512 with 5 home runs in 86 at-bats. There’s a non-zero chance he gets some at-bats with the big league club this season, but that’s just a product of the organization and their philosophy. Under the hood, I do have some concerns about Moore and his swing and miss issues. He is currently posting a 37.6 whiff% in AA to go along with a 30% strikeout rate and a 64.4 zCon%. He also extends the zone often, posting a 39.4 sack rate. Even though he is producing, these stats concern me a lot. The pitching will only continue to improve as he moves up the ranks, and these issues will need to be addressed or at least mitigated before he is ready to contribute at a high level in the big leagues.
