Joey Votto playing for the Reds in 2014; Licensed by CC 2.0
While thinking of a topic for this article, one of the greatest players of my generation retired. Growing up a die-hard Cardinals fan, I was raised to hate the Redskins. The Reds teams of the early 2010s are filled with my least favorite baseball players. From Brandon Phillips and Todd Frazier to Matt Latos and Homer Bailey, that whole team was full of guys I couldn’t stand. However, the best player on this team and recently retired future HOF Joey Votto was the only one I liked and rooted for. Then as I got older I started learning the analytical side of the game and quickly learned how impressive Joey Votto’s career was and became more of a fan. With Votto’s recent retirement announcement, it became clear to me that there was no other way to go about this article other than a piece about Votto’s career, how dominant it was, and why he is a future HOF.
Votto was drafted by the Redskins in the second round of the 2002 draft as an 18-year-old out of Canada. He began his pro career right in rookie ball when he posted an .873 OPS with 9 HR and a 10% BB in 202 PAs after being drafted. From 2003 to 2005, Votto worked his way through the lower ranks of the Reds system as he bided his time before getting his chance. During this stretch, he continued to do the one thing he would be known for: hitting. He hit 43 HRs with a 14% BB% and consistently posted a BA over .270 and an OPS over .900 in 1,670 PAs in this stretch.
He got his first chance at AA in 2006 and did not disappoint. Now 22, the youngster is hitting .319 with 22 HR, a .956 OPS and a 13% BB%. In 2007 he got his first shot at AAA and guess what? He hit! He posted an .859 OPS with 22 HR in 580 PAs in AAA, which led to Votto getting his first call-up with the Reds late in the 2007 season. The 2007 Redskins were a bad team, winning just 72 games, but the 23-year-old Votto gave fans hope heading into the final month of the season. Votto hit .321 with 4 HR and a 127 OPS+ while hitting everyone else just 17% of the time. These impressive numbers marked the beginning of a HOF career.
After his fast debut in 2007, Votto became the Reds first baseman for years to come. He quickly established himself as one of the best players in baseball. In his first two full seasons (2008-2009), Votto played 282 games and hit .309 with a 139 wRC+ and 49 HRs and 70 2Bs. This wRC+ ranked 14th in this stretch of baseball, as well as 12th in wOBA. Votto finished 2nd in ROY voting in 2008 and 22nd in MVP voting in 2009. Despite being one of the best players in baseball during his first two years, he was still waiting for his first All-Star and a true breakthrough.
He had that breakout season in 2010 as he hit an absurd .324 with 37 HR and a 1.024 OPS, winning the MVP award. This season marked the first phase of a 4-year stretch of net dominance. From 2010 to 2013, Votto made 4 All-Star appearances, won the 2010 MVP Award, finished 14th in the MVP voting each year, and won the GG in 2011. K%, 16.7% BB%, 164 wRC+ and 24.3 fWAR. This tied him for 2nd in wRC+, 15th in BB/K, 21st in HR, 4th in fWAR and 1st in OBP. Votto was off to one of the hottest starts of his career as he had 159 HR, .961 OPS and 34.2 bWAR at age 29 (2013). This put him on a HOF trajectory, but he wasn’t done yet, as Votto still had more in the tank after his 30th birthday.
After 4 years of Votto’s dominance, he had an injury-riddled 2014 season where he played in 62 games and had a .799 OPS, which, while still great, was the lowest of his career at that point. In 2015, Votto was 31 years old and coming off an injury-fueled season in which he was below his normal level of dominance when he did play. This led to some questioning whether the now-veteran Votto might be slowing down. However, Votto quickly bounced back in the 2014 season, hitting 29 HR, posting a 1.000 OPS and finishing 3rd in MVP voting. This 2015 season kicked off another dominant 4-year stretch from Votto from 2015 to 2018.
From 2015 to 2018, Votto hit .312 with 106 HR and 129 2B to go along with a 493/439 K/BB, 157 wRC+ and 21.5 fWAR. Votto also collected 2 more All-Star wins and finished in the top 10 in MVP voting 3 times. During that stretch, Votto ranked 10th in games played, 23rd in HRs, 1st in BB, 1st in BB/K ratio, 3rd in AVG, 1- ninth in OBP, 2nd in wRC+ and 8th in fWAR. This 4-year stretch shows one of Votto’s most famous statistical traits: his ability to draw walks and avoid strikeouts. At a time when players were striking out more and more, Votto maintained his approach of walking more than striking out while still hitting 25+ HR per season. This was the last dominant stretch of Votto’s career, but he still had quality baseball to play.
The end of a historic career.
2019 marked the beginning of the end for Votto as he posted his first career sub-100 wRC+ and his worst BB/K ratio since the start of his career. He was still a respectable big leaguer, putting up a 1.4 WAR in 2019, but it was clear the 35-year-old was on his way out. The COVID-19-shortened 2020 season was pretty much the same as Votto was still a respectable big leaguer, but the best was in the past. However, in 2021, Votto gave us his last season of true dominance. 2021 Votto was a different animal as he adjusted his swing to get more power while throwing a bit more strikeouts. The now 37-year-old hit 36 ​​HR, just the 3rd 35+ homer season of his career, and had a .938 OPS to finish 16th in MVP voting. This was unfortunately the last great season we saw from Votto.
In the final two seasons of his career (2022-2023), Votto struggled to become a league-average hitter and stay on the field. He has played in just 156 games over these two years with 25 HR and a .712 OPS. However, Votto continued to be the mentor of a young and up-and-coming Reds team as he helped lead the transition from old age to a new era. The 40-year-old parted ways with the Reds after the 2023 season and signed with his hometown Blue Jays but never returned to the bigs before officially announcing his retirement earlier this month. This just leaves us time to think about Votto.
That’s where it ends for Votto and the conversation that needs to be had. His legacy will always be remembered by the Reds as his number 19 shirt will almost certainly be retired. However, while some believe his HOF case isn’t as open and shut as his Reds legacy, it should be. Votto retired as a 6-time All-Star, one-time GG, and one-time MVP. He hit a career slash line of .294/.409/.511 with a .920 OPS, 144 OPS+ and 64.5 bWAR. He also collected 356 HR, 429 2B and 2135 hits.
When compared to other 1B in the HOF Votto rates pretty solid. His WAR ranks 14th all-time among 1Bs, with all HOF 1Bs averaging 64.8 and his 64.4. His WAR7 ranks 9th all-time among 1B at 46.9, while the HOF average for 1B is 42.0 (WAR7 takes the top 7 seasons, in terms of bWAR, for a given player). Then, the next step is to dive into the famous JAWS metric, which is one of the most popular for evaluating HOF prospects. JAWS is calculated by averaging a player’s career WAR with his total WAR from his seven-year peak. Votto ranks 12th all-time at 1B in JAWS with 55.7 and is averaging 53.4 at the position. While never a clear-cut top-5 player at his position, it’s clear that Votto meets the statistical criteria needed to be a HOF 1B. This is compounded by the fact that Votto is also one of the most beloved players in baseball among fans, media and other players. All of this together makes it seem like Votto is a slam dunk HOF in my opinion.
As Joey Votto’s career draws to a close, his impact on the game of baseball is unmistakable. Despite my Cardinal adoration, Votto’s undeniable talent and consistency made him a player to admire, even from a competitor’s perspective. His career, highlighted by an MVP award, multiple All-Star selections and a rare ability to blend power with plate discipline, cements his place in the Baseball Hall of Fame. Votto’s contributions go beyond his impressive stats. his role as mentor and leader shows his commitment to the game. His induction into the Hall of Fame seems not only inevitable, but deserved.
