Jack Flaherty plays for the Detroit Tigers, CC’d by Liscense 2.0
Several former All-Star pitchers have had rebound years in 2024, but perhaps the most unexpected return has been Jack Flaherty. After his debut in 2017, Flaherty quickly became a solid starter for the Cardinals. His breakout year came in 2019, where he posted an incredible 0.91 ERA in the second half of the season, finished 4th in NL Cy Young voting and led the Cardinals to an NLCS appearance. However, the following years were plagued with struggles and injuries. Flaherty missed significant time in 2021 with an oblique strain and a shoulder strain, the latter of which lasted until 2022. He was traded to the Baltimore Orioles in 2023, but his pitching was inconsistent. Even so, it was his healthiest season since 2020 as he pitched 144.1 innings, nearly matching his 2020-2022 innings total (162.1). In 2024, Flaherty signed a one-year contract with the Detroit Tigers, reviving his career. Let’s explore how he managed to turn things around.
Flaherty’s stats (through 6/21): 95.0 IP, 16 GS, 3.09 pCRA, 32.4% K%, 4.3% BB%, 7.8% Barrel%, 44.1% GB%, 34.2% CSW%, 15.7% SwStr%, 334. Thrilling%.
Flaherty posted career bests in multiple stats this season. Excluding the 2020 season, he posted high strikeout rate (94th percentile), walk rate (95th percentile), strikeout rate (78th percentile), and strikeout rate (94th percentile). The improvement in his walk rate is especially noticeable, as he’s been above 10% the past two seasons, with his previous career best coming in 2019 at 7.1%.
Tearing up the pitches
Flaherty’s biggest improvement has been his command, especially his fastball and slider. The vertical break caused by motion increased from 13.4 inches in 2023 to 15.3 inches in 2024 (which is more average than good, but an improvement nonetheless). I think it has to do with a slight increase in his launch height (5.4 feet in 2023 to 5.5 feet in 2024), or an improvement in spin efficiency (the percentage of spin rate that affects pitch) in 2023. from 72% to 80% in 2024. Last season, I believe Flaherty struggled with uncompetitive misses down the field, as evidenced by a few stats. First, he only threw 54.0% of the pitches in the strike zone, which is slightly below the league average of 55.8%. However, in 2024, Flaherty increased this pitch zone rate to 60.8%. Second, he reduced the percentage of pitches thrown in the “waste” zone (there’s no specific definition, but just think of a pitch that’s so uncompetitive that batters can’t take the bat off their shoulders) from 6.4% in 2023. to 2.9% in 2024, better than the league average of 5.2%. Finally, the walk rate has improved from 12.8% in 2023 to 5.3% this season. Due to Flaherty zoning the pitch more, the infield swing rate has increased from 41.6% in 2023 to 46.6% in 2024, and batters are whiffing at a higher rate than last season (20.8% Whiff% in 2023 25.8%). Whiff% in 2024).
Flaherty’s slider has a very similar movement profile to last season, but as you can see from these heatmaps, he’s finding the pitch a little lower than last season. From a numbers perspective, the percentage of sliders thrown into the heart of the plate has dropped from 25.0% last season to 16.7% this season. Conversely, the number of pitches thrown in the shadow zone (the best place to get hits and whiffs) increased from 43.1% to 51.1%. Although the difference is a matter of inches, this adjustment has paid big dividends. pitch has 31.3% Usage%, 3.47 pCRA, 31.0% K%, 5.4% BB%, 8.5% barrel%, 40.2% GB%, 34.1%. CSW%, 20.3% SwStr%, 39.1% Whiff%, all above average. Additionally, he relies more on the pitch as a throwaway, as evidenced by his usage in two-strike situations going from 24.7% in 2023 to 32.4% in 2024.
2023 Slider Location:
2024 Slider Location:
Flaherty also throws a sweeping curveball with 14.1 inches of glove movement, which Baseball Savant says is 21% above average. Last season was Flaherty’s best pitching year, posting 19.4% usage, 2.78 pCRA, 33.6% K%, 7.2% BB%, 5.6% Barrel%, 33.4% CSW%, 18.9% SwStr% and 40.2% Whiff%. All of these numbers were very good, but the pitch took another step forward this year: 18.7% usage rate, 0.54 pCRA, 45.2% K%, 0.0% BB%, 0.0% bbl% , 55.9% GB%, 38.1% CSW. %, 21.3% SwStr%, and 44.5% Whiff%. While I can’t pinpoint the reason for this improvement in terms of material or location, I think the curveball plays better than the fastball.
Last season, Flaherty was used primarily as a weapon against right tackles 9.1% of the time. The pitch had above-average lateral glove movement (84% above average), but the results weren’t great; 5.63 pCRA, 17.6% K%, 7.8% BB%, 11.4% Barrel%, 28.0% CSW%, 11.7% SwStr%, 26.4% Whiff%. If pitchers are taught to throw their best pitch often, the opposite is to throw their worst pitch less often. Flaherty followed this logic, which improved his results.
As of this writing, the Tigers are five games out of the AL Central lead and six games back in the wild-card race. While the team has improved offensively, their best bet is to focus on 2025. Flaherty, a potential rental, could be valuable to teams that need to play for the playoffs. At just 28 years old, a strong second half and playoff run could set him up for a significant payday this offseason. Jack Flaherty, once considered one of the best up and coming pitchers, is back on track and would be a formidable opponent in a playoff game.
Stats via Baseball Savant, Alex Chamberlain Pitch Leaderboard
