After a long and grueling lockout that halted the MLB offseason from December 2021 to March 2022, one of the most impactful changes agreed upon by the two factions was the implementation of a draft lottery among the 18 teams left out of the playoffs , as the team with the worst record would receive the first overall pick until in 2022 talent through the draft. The large-scale powerhouses leaving the competition looked unattractive for MLB, especially compared to the other three major sports. However, the changes have resulted in a more dramatic outcome than originally anticipated.
How is the MLB Draft Lottery different from the NBA or NHL Draft Lottery?
On the surface, creating a more neutral and fair environment for losing teams is seen as a major positive, especially from an economic perspective. , which is the main reason sports conglomerates like the NBA and NHL have turned to their lotteries lotteries are generally well-received among their respective fanbases, so what is causing the controversy surrounding MLB?
For starters, the lack of a salary cap in MLB sets baseball apart from the other three major sports.From a small-market organization’s perspective, it’s essentially impossible to attract top-tier outside talent when big-city powerhouses can ultimately offer what are deemed necessary, with very minimal limitations, making top talent a necessity for any small-market team on the cusp of a competitive season;
Bad for small market teams.
Going down with the fourth overall pick in a team like the Rockies’ situation could be detrimental in the long run, especially given how unattractive Coors Field is for free agents. The best HS pitching prospect since Hunter Greene” seems like the type of organization-changing pitcher that could completely transform the Rockies’ entire outlook long-term. though because of the lottery. They probably won’t have a chance to land him. Despite their miraculous playoff run in 2018, their farm is still relatively bleak with rookie righty Chase Dolander and recently drafted Golden Spikes winner Charlie Condon. out. They’ll likely have a chance to add premium talent at the 4th pick, though the miss is once a decade. a player like Seth Hernandez is a huge blow for the Rockies, who have consistently lacked quality pitching.
Furthermore, a team like the Marlins, just beginning a full rebuild, is in a situation where the absence of a true premium player could be an unprecedented blow in the long run. The old ownership regime essentially destroyed the organization’s reputation among the players locked down with grievances against the Players Union, so free agency appeal is already minimal, and it doesn’t even affect a market that’s largely untapped and arguably mismanaged in terms of promotion.The Marlins have never brought in a free agent in their 31 offseasons, and with the current front office biting the low-cost model revolutionized by the Rays, that doesn’t seem likely to change in the coming years having the highest pick, in a stretch with 6 clear premium players, is cruel consolation for a 100 loss season for, especially for the farming system, which has no real face.
Is the lottery too tough for full-length rebuilds?
One of the most compelling limitations created by the lottery is the fact that big teams in the market and revenue share cannot pick a top ten pick in consecutive seasons. , can’t pick higher than tenth in next season’s draft, even though the White Sox have one of the best farm systems in baseball in that pool the lack of adding another premium player, especially after breaking the all-time losing record, is devastating to their prospects.
MLB trying to limit tanks to optimize marketability is a justified motivation for the change on paper, and there are undeniably positive aspects to the lottery, but barring teams in lifeless situations from acquiring top picks in consecutive seasons will only prolong the rebuilding process. As mentioned earlier, spending in free agency to get the team to that competitive level is exactly what the league wants, though the aforementioned lack of a salary cap limits the rebuilding of revenue-sharing teams that want to make a real impact in the open market, and the limitations imposed by the draft lottery essentially prevent these “lifeless” organizations from adding the amateur talent needed to make a long-term difference Encouraging teams to cut back is hard to come by, but a league front office trying to complete a full rebuild would do more harm than good to most league organizations.
While there is much to criticize in terms of how the lottery affects rebuilding teams, it is hard to deny that the league is getting what they want. The Athletics, for example, are speeding up their rebuilding process by signing righty Luis Severino lefty Jeffery Springs, solidifying a viable rotation, and most importantly, extending one of their best players from last year, Brent Rucker.
Likewise, the Angels, while they never illegally rebuilt, sought to remain competitive with their highly active free agency. their (bleak) chances of being pushed into.
While most small-market organizations will operate differently than what we’ve seen from the A’s this season, the lottery is doing a pretty good job of incentivizing big-market fringe lottery teams like the Angels to spend and improve, rather than outspending larger-market organizations tanking is a concept in which lottery implementation is undeniably superior, and given the league’s operation as a business, maximizing revenue from larger, more mainstream organizations makes sense from an economic point of view, although completely ignoring it.smaller market pieces is something that greatly outweighs the positives created.
The lottery has some clear economic benefits, and purely from a business perspective, it’s more positive than negative for the league. Incentivizing the league’s economic superpowers to spend, as opposed to rebuilding, is something that few would disagree with are how small-market organizations are mismanaged and essentially written off.Because free agency is essentially a nonfactor for these teams, and the lottery takes away any security of talent additions, it’s harder than ever to grow a domestic winner like we’ve seen in the past.The baseball fan base needs to fully support the league, pushing the powerhouses to compete, but not at the expense of the small market.
