Do lefties actually have an advantage in the Masters? Here’s what the data says

For right-handed players who favor a fade, Augusta National features some uncomfortable tee shots. This means that the opposite is true for left-handed players, seemingly becoming a natural advantage for those who are able to deliver the batting form that is most often asked of them every other week in the tournament.

Start with the front nine, where holes 2, 5 and 9 each move sharply from right to left. In the second nine, 10 and 13 move in the same direction. Both par-3s on that side — 12 and 16 — are also subject to a left-hand fade.

All of which, one might assume, would help explain why, since 2003, left-handed players have won Masters six times (Mike Weir, 2003; Phil Mickelson2004, ’06 and ’10; Bubba Watson, 2012 and ’14). In the same span, lefties have combined for just four wins in the other three men’s championships.

But what does a deeper data dive say? In which parts of the course are the most significant advantages for lefties? Or, conversely, does the math not support the ancient theory?

We analyzed the data obtained from shots fired by every Masters from 2015 to the present – including more than 3,200 rounds and 234,000 shots – in search of meaningful answers to our question.

The data set

The left-handed rounds we analyzed come from an eclectic mix of players at various points in their respective careers, including past champions (Weir, Mickelson, Watson); major contenders and winners (Robert MacIntyre, Brian Harman); rising stars (Akshay Bhatia); and the passersby (Ted Potter, Jr.).

While lefties account for six Masters victories in the past 23 years, they make up a relatively small percentage of the fields. Since 2015, only 4.6% of Masters rounds have been played by lefties.

When it comes to elite players, this portion is even smaller. As of 2015, less than 3.5% of left-handed entries ranked in the top 50 Official World Golf Ranking. And only three lefties in that span have been ranked in the top 10 in the world, accounting for just 2.7% of the field makeup in the selected time frame. These numbers are important to consider when considering that right-handed players in our study window outperformed left-handed players by an average of 72.92 to 73.25.

General trends

Because most elite players are right-handed, it is difficult to make broad estimates comparing the average performance of lefties versus righties.

Off the tee, the numbers are a wash. Both groups produce nearly the same overall fairway hitting percentages (69.2% to 69.1%). In terms of strokes gained, left-handed players since 2015 have won an average of 0.03 strokes per round compared to right-handed players.

What about the overall approach game? Since 2015, left-handers have hit positives in 52.7% of their rounds played versus 51.3% for righties. However, when looking at elite-level performances, the numbers go in favor of the largest group of top-level righties: while 22.0% of “elite” left-handed rounds result in a complete hit or more with approach play, 28.6% of right-handed rounds check that box.

The most interesting data is revealed when looking at individual holes.

Hole analysis

Statistically, some holes produce surprising results.

You would think that par-5 second holewhich features the familiar right-to-left stick, would favor lefties. But lefties make birdie or eagle about 10% less often than righties there since 2015. By that stat, it’s lefties’ biggest negative experience at Augusta.

of par-4 5th holewhich also runs from right to end, ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of approach shot difficulty for right-handed players, with the 9th toughest green in regulation rate since 2015. For lefties, it ranks 5th toughest, yielding a 4.1% lower GIR rate than their right-handed counterpart.

of par-4 10th hole produces the greatest green advantage in put rate for left-handed players. Since 2015, lefties have hit the green about 6% more often than righties.

On celebrities par-3 12lefties make birdie 4% more often than righties, and lefties score 0.13 strokes lower than righties (the second-largest advantage on the course).

No single hole has generated a greater statistical advantage for lefties than strong lefties par-5 13. Since 2015, lefties have hit the 13th fairway 82% of the time, or 11.4% more than the field average. This has led to an 11.5% higher strikeout rate for lefties than the rest of the field. The memories match the math: think of some of the incredible shots Mickelson and Watson have hit on 13.

of par-3 16 generates the largest green disparity in the adjustment rate in the course. As of 2015, right-handed players hit the green in regulation at Redbud about 75% of the time. For leftists, this rate is 11% lower. A right-hand tee on 16 requires the ball to move over the water standing to the left of the green. This wide margin suggests that righties are more inclined to a conservative approach there (find the middle of the green) while lefties take more risk (attacking the pins).

While Augusta National’s par-4 18 swing slightly from left to right, lefties have a slightly higher fairway putt rate (+2.3%), green to putt rate (+2.8%) and birdie rate or better (+0.9%) than right-handed players. Hole shape is not the only determining factor in these statistical differences, but it is by far the biggest.

CONCLUSION

Broadly speaking, the statistics show that left-handed players in the Masters do not have a significant advantage over righties. But the course asks different questions of players depending on which side of the ball they’re standing on – and at some key points, the numbers tell you it’s much more comfortable to be on the left side.