By Frank Bay: The masses are clamoring for boxing’s mega event of the year, Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence ‘Bud’ Crawford, in 2025. Well, not so much. Boxing hasn’t had a legitimate major crossover event since the recent Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson circus dud and 2023’s Gervonta ‘Tank’ Davis vs. Ryan Garcia mega-event, which is rumored to have reached the tipping point of one million PPV buys. And let’s face it, Davis vs. Garcia wasn’t a mega event like the last true crossover event with the mass appeal of Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao doesn’t.
Canelo is the last of the PPV boxing stars as the model for success changes due to streaming, such as the Paul vs. Tyson event on Netflix. But the last time Alvarez hit the one million mark was against Gennadiy Golovkin in their 2nd fight during the HBO days in 2018. Since then, Alvarez’s numbers have declined, and he’s only hitting around the 500,000 to 650,000 reported PPVs. It’s only getting close to 1 million, with Caleb Plant at 800,000 in 2021, which seems like 20 years ago considering the landscape of boxing now with no more Showtime or HBO.
The fights are well discussed, and the fight that Bud and Turki Al-Shiekh are begging for is Canelo Alvarez. But honestly, it’s not a mega event that will hit the 1 million gold standard, as every Bud PPV without Errol Spence has flopped, with the reported Israil Madrimov fight doing a measly 150k PPV buys. Turki took a bloodbath at the event, reportedly losing millions even with a stacked undercard and a performance by Eminem. The reality is that the fight is not a crossover fight and will probably max out at 750k PPV. The only other reality is a David Benavidez fight, which will probably max out at 800,000 since it’s not a huge crossover event since Benny’s PPVs have flopped big, reportedly 75,000 for his fight with Demetrius Andrade on November 25, 2023.
The truth is, Alvarez is in no man’s land, and his options as a Dmitri Bivol or Artur Beterbiev opponent do less than his Edgar Berlanga fight, because on the state side, Berlanga was a bigger name. I can’t offer a good prediction because the future looks bleak for Alvarez and his choice of 2025 opponents. A Jake Paul fight would be the direction as it could compete for the Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao crossover that boxing desperately needs. Alvarez’s current 168-lb division has decent fighters but no star appeal in Christian Mbilli, Diego Pacheco, and unknowns in Osleys Iglesias and William Scull. No one would be willing to pay Alvarez north of $35 million to fight on PPV. If we want to get a Bud vs Canelo MEGA fight, Turki Al-Shiekh will need to shell out at least $100 million to get the US market’s interest. If anyone can, it’s Turki.
If we go to the A-list of Boxing stars, we have ‘Monster’ Naoya Inoue and Tank Davis. The sad truth is that I don’t see any name rival except for each other to truly become a crossover star. Inoue, boxing’s #1 fighter, has reached his limit. Maybe Top Rank envisioned another meteoric rise like Pac-Man, because Inoue has the Asian market like Manny has, but he can’t blitz through weight class after weight class, which was never fair to expect of him. But if Inoue wants a breakout fight, it’s one Tank Davis, who exists in fantasyland. Inoue has good opponents ahead of him at 126 with Bruce Carrington and Rafael El Divino’ Espinoza. Still, none of those fights will send the American media into a frenzy like Manny did with his namesake opponents Erik Morales and Marco Antonio Barrera. Look for Inoue to play it safe in 2025 and put together an entire country of the rising sun showdown with Junto Nakatani.
Last and certainly least is Tank Davis, who has done nothing to take his throne as the face of boxing after the huge success of his Ryan Garcia affair. Beating Frank Martin did nothing for him after he lost steam and took a year off after being on a heater, with that fight reportedly less than 200k PPV. With Vasily Lomachenko opting to sit and fix his back, Davis was left without a viable name to sell his PPV event. He decided to pick Lamont Roach, and now, with multiple cancellations, people are wondering if the fight will even happen in 2025. Davis must know he needs a big name in 2025, but there aren’t many, other than the man he already beat, Ryan Garcia. The reality is that the other names are not stars like Ryan. Shakur Stevenson, Teofimo Lopez and Devin Haney are all damaged goods. With Manny Pacquiao rumored to return, the obvious mega crossover event would be a Pac-Man Vs. be Tank Davis fight. A Manny vs. Davis fight would put Davis over Alvarez, but something tells me that Davis and his handlers want to play it safe like they always have. Noting ventured, nothing lost.
