Can Jake Paul upset Anthony Joshua?

During his five-year boxing journey, Paul improved tremendously. He has good lateral movement, he knows how to work off the jab, and he has a powerful right hand. The question is, has Paul improved enough to pull off the upset of the age?

Thirty-five years ago (42-1), underdog James “Buster” Douglas scored the upset of the century when he stopped Mike Tyson in the 10th round. Going into the Joshua fight, Paul is a (+700) underdog.

Recently, the upset of the century almost happened in March 2024. In his pro boxing debut, former UFC world heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou challenged then-WBC world heavyweight champion Tyson Fury.

With 44 seconds left in the third round, Ngannou scored a takedown when he landed a hard left hook. However, Fury was able to get up, utilize his skills and fight his way to a split decision victory.

Because of his impressive performance against Fury, Francis Ngannou was awarded another big fight against Anthony Joshua six months later. Unfortunately for Ngannou, things didn’t go to plan as Joshua knocked him out in the second round.

Jake Paul can look to Ngannou’s fight against Fury as inspiration. Ngannou was an inexperienced boxer who took Fury to the limit. Jake Paul has minimal experience, but the one advantage he has is in the athletic category.

Anthony Joshua is an extraordinary boxer, but he has four losses, which means there is a blueprint on him. Two of Joshua’s four career losses have come at the hands of Oleksandr Usyk.

Similar to Usyk, Jake Paul will look to use lateral movement and his hand speed. Unfortunately for Paul, he lacks Usyk’s other attributes, such as the IQ, timing, range of shots, footwork and ability to create angles.

The only chance Jake Paul has to produce the upset of the century is to fight the perfect fight. Paul is smart, disciplined and very elusive.

His offense must be sharp, and his defense must be tight. On the night of December 19, Jake Paul (12-1, 7 KOs) will have to epitomize the boxing phrase ‘hit but don’t get hit.’

Jake Paul believes he has a chance to win because Anthony Joshua (36) may have lost some punch resistance. In the course of his victory in June 2019, Andy Ruiz dropped Joshua four times.

Daniel Dubois also scored four knockouts when he defeated Joshua in September 2024. It’s a fact that Joshua can be hurt, but the question is, does Jake Paul have enough punch to hurt Anthony Joshua?

In Jake Paul’s case, hitting power is irrelevant. His main goal is to be smoother than baby oil while boxing from the outside. Paul will need to use his hand speed and constant movement to outpoint Joshua over eight rounds.

This Friday night, Jake Paul will take the biggest risk of his professional boxing career when he steps into the ring to face Anthony Joshua. In the world of sports, we have seen cases where everything went right for a particular team or individual for one night.

On December 19, Jake Paul will need a night where everything goes right. If Paulus can be responsible defensively, work from the outside and point out Joshua, then it will without a doubt be the biggest upset of the century.