Welcome to our PGA Tour betting tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert forecaster Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a host and regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network dedicated to sports and sports betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow Brady on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the 2026 US Open weekend.
We’re two rounds closer to the championship on Sunday at the US Open at Shinnecock Hills, and thankfully, the biggest story isn’t the questionable golf course conditions, as we’ve seen the last two times this major has been hosted in Southampton, NY.
In our previous article earlier this weekwe talked about the USGA having to be able to cooperate with Mother Nature. The greens have been kept a little slower, on purpose, and are also getting a constant mist of water to keep them from drying out completely and becoming unplayable. We noticed that the fairways were getting on the wider side, to give the USGA some wiggle room as they allowed them to get stronger and faster over the weekend. So far, in my eyes, I feel that everything is going very well. We are getting a particularly good test of golf that is extremely demanding, as a US Open should be, and I believe it will get tougher over the last 36 holes.
The only outlier, it seems, is Wyndham Clark who is hitting his cuffs nicely and for two rounds, has held a hot player. The 2023 US Open champion has a four-shot lead at the halfway mark at seven under par. 2022 US Open champion Matt Fitzpatrick and Sam Stevens, Tom Kim and Xander Schauffele are all tied for second at three under. Collin Morikawa is two down. Sam Burns and Justin Thomas are six-under par and Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are both tied for the championship. The last two US Open champions, JJ Spaun and Bryson DeChambeau, missed the cutwhich fell to four over par.
Five of our seven pre-tournament picks to win the US Open have advanced to the weekend. Patrick Reed was one of the more popular picks of the week, having finished fourth here in 2018 and was top 12 at the Masters and PGA Championship earlier this season. He missed the cut by one shot, and our long-shot pick Daniel Berger never came close, with a top 10 stumping.
So where do we go from here? We are already at Schauffele and Fitzpatrick. Tommy Fleetwood may not be out of it yet at one end, and Kurt Kitayama got back into contention today with a round of 68, so he’s now in two for the championship.
Here are some shows I would consider doing at Moving Day in Shinnecock.
Top-10 Finish
Sam Burns (+145)
A major championship appears to be in Burns’ future and it will probably be this week. He threatened at Oakmont last summer, finishing seventh, and was seventh this year at the Masters. He was fourth just three weeks ago at the Memorial. Burns is getting almost two infield hits on the closer and he’s about to get a full hitter. The pitcher has definitely been a weapon for Burns throughout his career, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see his current stable become even better. When we identified related golf courses earlier this week that could show signs of success at Shinnecock, we mentioned Colonial Country Club (Charles Schwab Challenge) and Innisbrook (Valspar Championship). Burns won at the Colonial in 2022 and won the Valspar in back-to-back seasons.
Maverick McNealy (+270)
McNealy followed up a round of 72 on Thursday with a 68 on Friday to sit at the end of the weekend and in a tie for 11th place. He’s gaining strokes everywhere, but most importantly, the tee on the green, where he’s currently ranked 18th in the field. I also like the fact that his pitcher has been basically neutral, earning just a shade less than half a hit in the field. To me, that means his putter has plenty of room to warm up over the next couple of days, and McNealy is an excellent putter — who, by the way, grew up on Poa Annua greens at Pebble Beach and has struggled on other California courses with similar putting surfaces at Shinnecock, Torrey Pines and Silverado. I believe his tee-to-green game will remain consistent and I think there is a good chance for his performance to improve. A top 10 finish looks well within his reach.
If you tail some tons pre-tournament selections and are already in Schauffele and Fitzpatrick, I say hang in there. If not, I prefer Fitzpatrick over Schauffele at this point if you want to jump in. Schauffele has been a US Open machine and I’m not surprised to see what he does again, but a lot of his success so far has been about the putter. The rest of his game needs to improve a bit if he’s going to add a third major championship to his resume.
Matt Fitzpatrick (7-1)
I really like the way the Englishman is spending the first two days. He ranks sixth in the field for SG: Approach and is seventh for SG: Tee To Green. He’s also gaining nearly a stroke and a half on the field both around the green and with putter. Everything is going very well for Fitzpatrick, but nothing is so wrong that we could imagine a regression. He walks very steadily. He is coming off a runner-up finish last week in Canada and has three wins already this season. I think he’s a solid bet to capture his second US Open championship.
