Ryan Garcia is convinced Canelo Alvarez can defeat undefeated four-belt light heavyweight champion Artur Beterbiev after watching his fight against Dmitry Bivol last Saturday night.
Garcia isn’t saying how the smaller 5’8″ Canelo (62-2-2, 39 KOs) would find a way to unseat undisputed 175-lb champion Beterbiev (21-0, 20 KOs) because he would be giving away a lot size in that fight.
In Canelo’s last fight against Edgar Berlanga, he dominated a fighter who was said to have rehydrated to 193 poundswhich is in the same ballpark as Beterbiev. Canelo showed in that fight that he can easily handle the size of a true light heavyweight. Berlanga looked massive in the ring against Canelo and even bigger than Beterbiev.
Beterbiev’s slower hand speed and work rate will be manageable for Canelo, who has dealt with much faster fighters than him in his career. Canelo (34) is five years younger than the 39-year-old Beterbiev and should have more left in the tank.
Interestingly, he has never expressed a desire to fight Beterbiev, which is odd because it’s a style he’s more suited to fight than pure boxer Dmitri Bivol.
I think canelo beats Arthur
— RYAN GARCIA (@RyanGarcia) 13 October 2024
“Look at the age. Look at the older man in Beterbiev. At the end of my career, I knew my pace wouldn’t match anyone else’s,” Johnny Nelson said. Boxing King Media over Dmitri Bivol who started fast, and Artur Beterbiev got the upper hand in the first half of their fight.
“Beterbiev went at the same pace he started with and the same pace he finished with. His pace didn’t change. Bivol came at a fast pace, which is why he won the first half of the fight. What Beterbiev did was to stay consistent.”
Beterbiev increased his pace significantly from the sixth and continued to fight at a faster pace as the fight progressed. He didn’t stay in the same pace because if he did, Bivol would have continued to box him out like he did in rounds one through five. Beterbiev threw almost no punches in those early rounds, allowing Bivol to dominate because nothing was coming back.
“If they had given it a draw, I wouldn’t have complained. I think if they fight again, Bivol beats him handily. I think some of the scorecards were ridiculous, but that’s subjective,” Nelson said.
“Like Johnny said. If Beterbiev had come out and tried to run with Bivol in the first few rounds, he would have gassed because that’s what happens,” trainer Dominic Ingle said. “What he did was come in calm throughout, and Bivol came in at a high pace, and he took off.”
I disagree with Ingle. If Beterbiev had come out fast in the first half of the fight, he would have exhausted Bivol that much faster and knocked him out. It was a mistake on Beterbiev’s part to start slow and let Bivol get a sizeable early lead as he nearly milked it for a decision victory.
Beterbiev cannot afford to start slowly in the rematch, if there is one, as Bivol has already said he wishes he had moved more. In the rematch, Bivol will make it difficult for Beterbiev to get to him if he takes an early lead.
“Now, if he was a video game. The hard shots that Beterbiev was throwing would have sapped his energy,” Ingle said. “Bivol is very good and a very skilled boxer at scoring. Judges will score. on the weight of the punching. If someone is landing heavy shots, they’re going to score it for the heavier fighter.”
It wasn’t just the heavy shots Beterbiev landed that the judges noticed. Bivol’s movement indicated that he did not want to engage and was trying not to be knocked out. When the judges saw this, they understood that Bivol could not withstand Beterbiev’s power and pressure. He was trying to get a cheap win.
“I thought Bivol was going to outbox him and win, but you can see where there is an argument why Beterbiev did (win),” says Ingle. “The shots he landed were more damaging to Bivol, but Bivol is a very resilient fighter. It is not surprising that of all the 20 fights that Beterbiev had, he knocked them all out. Now that he had come to a high-level fighter like Bivol, he had passed the distance.
“Bivol is not a massive puncher. He always beats everyone on points, more or less, and beats them on his box. The second time, Bivol will have a better idea of what to do because it was close, depending on what you would like to see. Beterbiev drained Bivol’s energy resources. If it was a video game, he would have run out of energy against Beterbiev.”
Some of the heavy blows Beterbiev hit Bivol in rounds seven and eight sapped the energy out of him and took away his will to fight. Bivol looked a lot like he did in his showdown last December against Lyndon Arthur. He got hurt in that fight and was on defense the entire second half. Bivol showed in those two fights that he is not the type to go out on his shield. When he gets hurt, he goes on the defensive, gets on his bike and boxes. He stops throwing so much and plays it safe.
“So, you can see why that Beterbiev won that fight. For me, I let Bivol win the fight because I scored it for someone who boxes and gets out of the way,” Ingle said. “Even if the shots weren’t heavy handed, it seemed to me that Bivol was outboxing him. \
“If Beterbiev knocks him out, fair play. But to me it’s who they seem to dominate. To me it looked like Bivol was in a boxing match at the front,” Ingle said.
I would have said Bivol by a round or tie,” Nelson said. “No,” Nelson said when asked if the outcome was a robbery.
“They have to do it again, and if it’s the same again, fair enough,” Ingle said on a Beterbiev vs. Bivol rematch said. “If Bivol wins, they can make it a third fight. The level they’re at, that’s just a small percentage of who’s going to win or lose. It’s not a massive gap. So, it’s not a surprise that they can go that way.”
The Beterbiev vs. Bivol rematch won’t be as close as Ingle thinks, as Artur now knows he can dominate with pressure by rushing Dmitri. In the second half of the contest, Beterbiev showed that Bivol could not handle his power and showed no willingness to stand and fight. This will not change in the rematch. Bivol will run when faced with pressure from Beterbiev because he doesn’t like getting hit and can’t handle body or head shots.
“Because of how the fight went. One fighter finished stronger than the other,” Nelson said about why none of the three judges scored it for Bivol. “It’s about how the fight went, and that’s why I think it was a see-saw effect.”
Beterbiev was riding from the seventh round, and appeared to sweep the last six rounds of the fight. If you include those six rounds with the one or two that Beterbiev won in the first six rounds, it’s understandable why the judges gave him the decision over Bivol.
“There is a reason why Beterbiev is a triple belt champion and still holds them. That’s because he defended them against everyone he faced,” Ingle said. “It’s hard to keep the three belts, especially when you have the IBF, because they will put an obligation on you all the time that you probably don’t want to fight because it’s not worth it,” Ingle said.
It hasn’t been a big deal for Beterbiev to hold on to his IBF title until now, as he has a big money rematch that could take place in the first half of 2025. The rematch won’t have as much meaning without the undisputed championship on the line, meaning Beterbiev will either have to pay his mandatory challenger Michael Eifert a step aside or fight him.
It shouldn’t take long for Beterbiev to get Eifert out of the way. This would be an easy early-round knockout win for Beterbiev if he wants to face him in January or February. Beterbiev could then face Bivol in a rematch in May or June, unless His Excellency Turki Alalshikh chooses to have him defend against the winner of the David Benavidez vs. David Morrell fight.
