I tried this kind of story for the Masters and got burned by Rory McIlroy defending his Masters title to get a second green jacket.
It doesn’t matter. I’m back for more punishment this week as we head to the venerable Shinnecock Hills for the US Open.
I’ve learned my lesson with doubters like McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler – but there are still a handful of top 10 favorites I’m confident won’t win this week.
Here are the five guys at the top of the odds list who won’t win on Long Island.
1. Bryson DeChambeau (+2000)
Sitting around sixth on the favorite sheet, depending on where you look, DeChambeau is still considered a top threat to capture another big. He won the 2020 US Open at Winged Foot and the 2024 US Open at Pinehurst, so the pedigree is there.
This will be a very different test this week. You can expect a lot of wind at Shinnecock. You can expect a lot of difficult short game shots from closely mowed areas. I’m not listening to Bryson’s music based on these two factors.
Perhaps even more than that is how bad DeChambeau has looked in the first two comps of the year. He missed the cut at the Masters and the PGA Championship, looking utterly disjointed the whole way. He is ranked No. 20 on Data Golf.
It’s fair to wonder if LIV’s decline has become a distraction for Bryson as he tries to figure out his future and why he plays golf in the first place. Feels like he’s more focused on content creation than competitive golf right now.
2. Ludvig Aberg (+2000)
We may have crowned Aberg a little early.
He’s a tremendous talent and among the best players in the game (No. 7 on Data Golf), but he hasn’t lived up to expectations in terms of wins. His last win came in February 2025, despite having a dozen or more chances to win.
Aberg has put himself in position on Sundays but continues to fall short, including at the Players Championship, where he split early on the back nine to walk away with a major title.
I have no doubt that Aberg can be involved in the tournament – ​​and I’m a huge fan of his – but he’s given me no reason to believe he can walk away with a major championship title.
3. Xander Schauffele (+1600)
No. 4 on the odds sheet, Schauffele is a fantastic US Open player. His career results are: T5, T6, T3, 5, T7, T14, T10, T7, T12. Wow! Not a single finish outside the top 15 in nine US Opens. This is seriously impressive.
But we’re not talking top-10 bets here — we’re talking about winning the golf tournament, which I don’t think Schauffele will do.
Schauffele hasn’t really come close to winning a tournament this year. And as I mention with Brooks Koepka at one point, it looks like he’s not in the top form we saw from 2024. He’s still getting back to that level after an injury-plagued 2025.
I’m sure Schauffele’s name will be included, but I don’t believe this is his week.
4. Tommy Fleetwood (+1800)
Fleetwood are number 5 on the odds sheet. It’s for good reason, given his consistently strong play and the fact that he nearly won the 2018 US Open at Shinnecock when he shot a final-round 63 to nearly trail Koepka.
Anyway, I’m a little stuck with the English dear.
He won the Tour Championship a year ago to break the ice to win a PGA Tour event, but I’m skeptical of his ability to win a major. His Masters (T33) and PGA (MC) performances were lacking. Fleetwood has gone nine consecutive majors without a top-10 finish.
It just seems like a big enough step for him to bounce back and win this week.
5. Brooks Koepka (+2200)
The aforementioned Koepka had the roughest performance of his career eight years ago when he won at Shinnecock. The indelible image of that week is how Brooks saved a bogey on the short par-3 11th by deliberately driving into a bunker and then getting up and down from there.
I appreciate Koepka’s history and ability to prove everyone wrong, but it has been many years since he was that boy.
This current version of Brooks is still making its way back into the mix. He has just one top-10 finish this year (a T9 at Cognizant) and hasn’t shown that high-level ability in at least two years.
I’m rooting for Koepka to return to form – his Strokes Gained trajectory is promising – but I think his history is making him a top 10 favorite this week.
Who do you like this week? Who won’t win?
Let me know in the comments.
