By many metrics, the FIFA World Cup 2026 it is the biggest in the history of the tournament, with 48 teams, 104 matches and three host countries. Anything can happen, but as with any major sporting event, there are clear leaders.
Heading into group play, Kalshi and Polymarket traders have processed more than $1.7 billion in volume in the World Cup markets and DeFiRate.com estimates that more than $2.5 billion will be traded on Polymarket.
Spain and France are deadlocked as co-favourites, England lurk just behind them, and defending champions Argentina are a tricky bet wrapped around a 38-year-old who could be playing his last tournament. Here’s where the market is for the teams with the best chance at MetLife Stadium on July 19.
Spain: The team to beat
Spain is in Group H, playing with the following rivals:
- Cape Verde (June 15, Atlanta)
- Saudi Arabia (June 21, Atlanta)
- Uruguay (June 26, Guadalajara)
The reigning European champions arrive aiming to complete another historic international trophy run, looking to replicate the legendary heights of their golden generation of 2008-2012. Uruguay’s match in the qualifier against Mexico is the decisive one in the group stage.
Key players and team highlights:
- Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams are Spain’s most dangerous weapons, but both have injury concerns. Yamal is unlikely to be available until the Uruguay match.
- Pedri anchors the midfield. Mikel Oyarzabal starts up front after scoring the winning goal in the Euro 2024 final.
- Zero Real Madrid players made the squad, a selection call that has generated a strong debate.
Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets price Spain at around 16% to win the World Cup, with Kalshi slightly ahead of France at 16.5%. Both markets are competing for attention daily market promotions and contests geared towards the biggest event of the year.
France: Flush with Talent
France are in Group I, playing the following opponents:
- Senegal (June 16, New Jersey)
- Iraq (June 22, Philadelphia)
- Norway (June 26, Boston)
France has been to back-to-back World Cup finals and won one. Deschamps, who is expected to leave after this tournament, has one more chance to come out on top.
Key players and team highlights:
- Mbappé has returned to his best form at Real Madrid. A fully committed Mbappé is the most dangerous player in the tournament.
- Dembélé has just claimed his second Champions League title, and he may not even be the best striker in France.
- Olise, Barcola, Thuram and Doué complete an attacking depth chart that most countries can’t match with their starting lineup.
The red flag: France lost 2-1 to Ivory Coast in a warm-up friendly on June 4, spooking traders. Norway are a real group threat. The markets have France as co-favorite at around 16%.
England: A 60-Year Grudge
England are in Group L, playing the following opponents:
- Croatia (June 17, Dallas), a rematch of the 2018 semifinals
- Ghana (June 23, Boston)
- Panama (June 27, New Jersey)
England won their only World Cup in 1966. Tuchel was called in specifically to end that drought, and the team have genuine title credentials.
Key players and team highlights:
- Kane arrives in the form of his life: 57 goals in 50 games for Bayern Munich this season. He is the unquestionable difference maker for England.
- Bellingham is one of the most complete midfielders in the tournament. Its initial role is still debated.
- Saka provides on the right. Rice is a lock down the middle of the field.
England qualified with an incredibly dominant defensive run through Europe. The Croatia opening is the group’s landmine. Prediction markets have England at around 11%, third overall, just behind the two European co-favourites, and neck and neck with Portugal.
Argentina: The last dance
Argentina is in Group J, playing the following opponents:
- Algeria (June 16, Kansas City)
- Austria (June 22, Dallas)
- Jordan (June 27, Dallas)
No nation has retained the World Cup since Brazil in 1962. Argentina arrive with 17 players from the Qatar 2022 roster and a highly touted 38-year-old expected to play in their final tournament.
Key players and team highlights:
- Messi turns 39 during the tournament. Scaloni will manage his minutes carefully in the group stage.
- Julián Álvarez is the attacking engine regardless of Messi’s involvement. Lautaro Martínez is the back-up striker, although he is dealing with a strained sole heading into the game.
- Emiliano Martínez, Lisandro Martínez, and Cristian Romero form the core defense that you found in Copa América, Finalissima, and World Cup together.
Prediction markets have Argentina winning Group J with a 76-77% probability. The overall picture is murkier with roughly 9-11% to win the tournament. They are a legitimate contender trading at a discount due to Messi’s age and the historical difficulty of defending a title. Messi has already named France, Spain, Brazil, England, Germany and Portugal as the teams to beat.
The Market Is Open
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are updating in real time as the tournament unfolds. The co-favorites are clear. Everything else is still being priced.
One thing the expanded 48-team format pretty much guarantees: an underdog will make a run. The market has yet to figure out who.
