How is the 2023 No. 1 draft pick going in the majors?

If you’ve been following baseball media lately, you’ve likely seen the name Paul Skenes a lot. It was Paul Skenes #1: overall pick in the 2023 MLB draft out of LSU. He was a big part of LSU’s success in 2023, where they eventually won the College World Series. Skenes only played five games in the minors in 2023 and seven games in 2024 before being called up to the show. He made his debut on May 11, 2024, striking out seven and hitting 100 MPH with his fastball 17 times. Is it good for a rookie making his debut? With the Pirates second in their division, Paul Skenes has been a bright spot for the Pirates this season, promising he could be a long-term starter for them in the coming years. With that said, let’s take a look at how Skenes has fared so far since being called up to the majors.

Statistics (from 5/11-6/25): IP: 46.1, K%: 33.7%, BB%: 4.4%, Barrel%: 6.3%, ERA: 2.14, WHIP: 0.99, pCRA: 2.95

Skenes has had success since entering the league, and that’s largely due to his ability to hit shots. Skenes ranks in the top 5% of the league in K%, thanks to his high velocity fastball and slider. He gets the most hits on those pitches, both have a 40%+ K%. Skenes’ second most used pitch is his splitter (Baseball Savant says he splits the finger), which generates a 34.2 CSW%. He doesn’t use this pitch much in two-strike situations, but this pitch is his least hit, with opponents only holding a .140 batting average and a .172 wOBA. Those stats are both well below the league average for opponents, making it one of Skenes’ best pitches. Skenes has some high average exit velocity at 92 MPH, but with his above-average CSW%, he can afford to give up tougher contact. Skenes should expect his exit velocity to decrease over time as he continues to pitch and learn more, as he is just a rookie with only 8 games under his belt. Let’s dive into the pitches I mentioned above and see how they perform for Skenes.

Since entering the league, Paul Skenes has wowed people with his fastball, averaging 99.3 MPH. Skenes makes the most of his fastball out of his five-pitch arsenal, using it 39.6% of the time. He’s using it 50.9% of the time in two-strike situations, which is way up from his flip-flop, which he only uses 19.3% of the time in two-strike situations. He made the majority of his strikeouts with this pitch as well, at 40.5 K%. Skenes’ fastball isn’t doing too well, with opponents averaging a .313 wOBA (just below the MLB average). His fastball also squares about 3% less than the MLB average (38%). Skenes hits the top and outside of the belt with this move. Its Vertical Approach Angle (VAA) of -4.9 helps it reach the top of the zone. Skenes is able to land his fastball in the strike zone 65.2% of the time, making this his most effective pitch. His fastball is a big part of why his K% is so high.

As mentioned earlier, Skenes’ least hit is his splitter. He doesn’t use this pitch much in two-strike situations, but still has a 27.4% K% when he does. Due to his -6.9 VAA, Skenes can deploy this pitch in the lower zone, mostly in the inner half of the plate. Skenes is able to induce a lot of swings with this pitch, posting a 56.8% swing% and getting whiffs on 34.6% of those swings. Most impressively, what separates him is how he is able to keep runners off the base paths with it. As mentioned before, opponents are only posting a .172 wOBA against this pitch, which means opposing hitters have a very hard time hitting this pitch. Skenes allows enough hard contact with this pitch, but because of his breath rate, he can allow more hard contact because this pitch isn’t hit as often. Seeing how Skenes is very effective at keeping runners off the base paths, he doesn’t give up many runs, posting a respectable 2.14 ERA.

There’s always room for improvement, no matter what the case may be, and for Paul Skenes, the need for improvement happens to be with his slider. Skenes targets the outside of the zone hard with his slider when he throws it. He only throws it 16.3% of the time, but posts a 40.0 K% with it. Although he gets a lot of K’s on this pitch, it gets hit a lot more than any of his other pitches. Batters get on base more often with this pitch, and opponents have a .394 wOBA with this pitch, well above the league average. Another problem with this pitch is that he doesn’t generate a lot of buzz with it. He only gets whiffed 26.4% of the time, compared to a league average of 33.1%. This shows us that Skene’s slider is taking quite a hit. This brings me to my next point, which is when his slider hits, it often hits hard. Skenes’ slider produces a barrel% of 16.7% compared to the league average of 7.1%. If you are not familiar with this statistic, click here here for a detailed explanation. Not only do batters hit this pitch hard, but they often get extra base hits off this pitch as well. Opponents post a .450 ISO off Skenes’ slider. ISO is a metric that measures the raw power of hitters, taking into account only their extra base hits. If Skenes can get this pitch to generate less hard contact and more thrills, it will only help him improve on an already impressive start to his career.

Paul Skenes has already had a great start to his rookie season, with a 4-0 record a bright spot for a struggling Pirates team. As Skenes continues to develop as a pitcher, he will only continue to improve. He has an elite fastball and elite strikeout ability and is so much fun to watch. I expect Skenes to only continue to improve as the season goes on and continue to be one of the hottest names in the league.