By Martin Graham
from Burnley defeat a Manchester City they confirmed his discharge to the side Wolvesleaving one place remaining in the relegation zone. In recent weeks, the fight seemed to involve four sides: Leeds, Nottingham Forest, West Hami Tottenham – but momentum has begun to shift.
Leeds’ dramatic final draw in Bournemouthmarked by Sean Longstaffcapped a streak of seven points in three games and lifted them to the symbolic mark of 40 points. This record is often associated with survival, which causes many to begin to dismiss them as out of danger.
However, manager Daniel Farke remains cautious despite the encouraging position. He stressed that nothing is guaranteed until it is mathematically guaranteed, despite his side enjoying a seven-game winless run in all competitions. Confidence is growing within the squad, especially with a favorable game against Burnley, who were already relegated ahead of them, which could confirm their status.
For now, Leeds continue their push with discipline, aware that while safety is close, it is not yet officially achieved.
The supercomputer points to Spurs as the main danger
Although Leeds appear to be clearing up, statistical projections suggest that the battle for survival is narrowing. According to Opta’s supercomputer, Leeds’ chances of relegation are just 0.21%, making their relegation highly unlikely.
Nottingham Forest are also in a relatively strong position after recent positive results, with only a 4.27% chance of going down. Their improved form has given them breathing room compared to their closest rivals.
That leaves West Ham and Tottenham as the main contenders for the final relegation spot. West Ham have a 38.58% chance of finishing in the bottom three, while Tottenham are considered more likely not to be relegated, with a 56.93% chance.
The figures highlight growing concern for Spurs, who are now seen as favorites to drop into the Championship unless they can turn their fortunes around quickly.
Form tells a worrying story for Tottenham
Tottenham manager Roberto de Zerbi has expressed his belief that his side can still produce a late surge, even suggesting they are capable of winning their remaining games. However, his recent performances do not support this optimism.
Spurs are currently on a 15-match league winless streak and have yet to record a win in 2026. Since the end of October, they have managed just two wins, a record that underlines their struggles throughout the campaign.
Their next game against bottom-placed Wolves carries added significance as failure to win would equal the club’s record for consecutive league games without a win set more than 90 years ago. However, their relegation rivals have shown signs of improvement.
Forest have won two of their last three games and are unbeaten in five, while West Ham have won two of their last five games. Over a longer period, both sides have accumulated significantly more points than Spurs, whose return of six points in 15 games since the end of December paints a bleak picture.
Decisive matches await in the shooting
With five games remaining, Tottenham can take some encouragement from their upcoming schedule. A trip to already-relegated Wolves presents an immediate opportunity, while a home game against Leeds could be favorable if their opponents have already secured survival.
Even a challenging encounter at Aston Villa may come at an opportune time as they are sandwiched between their opponents’ European commitments. Matches against Chelsea and Everton to close the season, however, could prove demanding given those teams’ ambitions for European qualification.
West Ham face a varied series of fixtures, starting with Everton at home before traveling to Brentford. Their schedule gets tougher with a clash against title-chasing Arsenal, followed by a trip away to Newcastle and a potentially decisive meeting with Leeds.
Forest certainly have the toughest road ahead, including away games against Chelsea and Manchester United. Home games against Newcastle and Bournemouth could be crucial, but securing points early, such as in their next game at Sunderland, can ease the pressure heading into the final weeks.
History and numbers offer mixed hopes
Tottenham’s plight is historically worrying as it has been nearly five decades since they were in the relegation zone at this stage of the season, and on that occasion, they failed to survive. Their home form has also been one of the weakest in England’s top four divisions, with just two wins recorded.
Their current winless streak is one of the longest to start a calendar year, with only two teams in Premier League history having endured longer runs, both relegated.
Forest, on the other hand, can take encouragement from past trends which show that 36 points have been enough to keep up in every season since 2015-16. Leeds also benefit from historical precedent, as very few teams with 39 points or more have been relegated, and none in the last 14 years.
West Ham, however, serve as a reminder that even strong totals do not guarantee safety. Their record 42 points in a relegation season is still the most ever for a team that was still relegated.
With so little separating the remaining contenders, the fight to avoid the final relegation spot looks set to go down to the wire.
