The 36-year-old heavyweight points back to his 12-round fight against Dave Allen as a turning point in how he views his own stamina and composure deep into fights. Prior to that fight, Makhmudov had largely built his record on early knockouts and had never been tested over the full distance.
“It gives me a lot of confidence because I never fight like this. Hard rounds, I never fight 12 rounds,” Makhmudov told Boxingscene. “But because I have now, it’s good to have experience. Experience is always good. It always helps you, and that’s everything to me.”
That rooftop visual definitely tells a story of yesterday’s photo shoot. Seeing them side by side really accentuates the physical contrast between the two. If Fury comes in lighter and thinner, it could be a double-edged sword. He may be faster, or he may not have the mass to lean on a powerhouse like Makhmudov.
The idea of ​​Makhmudov carrying his power into the late rounds is a legitimate nightmare for any heavyweight, but especially one dealing with a long layoff. Heavyweight strength is usually the last thing to go, but stamina and punch resistance are often the first to decline with age and inactivity.
Historically, Fury’s best defense has been his movement and his ability to tie fighters down to tire them out. However, if Fury truly hasn’t regained the gas tank he showed in the Usyk rematch, he won’t be able to dance away for 12 rounds.
Makhmudov hits hard. Taking those shots to the arms and shoulders for 30 minutes drains a fighter’s legs. Now that Makhmudov knows he won’t be gassing at round six, he can blow himself up in the championship rounds.
Fury at 37 is in a different phase of his career. Being painfully thin after his tough training camp could indicate he’s been working on his cardio, but against a powerful Russian, you often need some meat on the legs to absorb the impact of those right hands.
The Russian contender added that fighting in the UK during that bout also helped prepare him for the environment he expects this weekend, where the crowd is likely to be heavily in Fury’s favour.
“It was unbelievable. Everyone was against me,” Makhmudov said of his last fight in Sheffield, England, against Dave Allen. “I said: ‘after the fight you’re going to love me.’ And it happened.”
Some fighters need the love of the crowd to perform, but others turn into absolute monsters when they feel like the villain. Makhmudov clearly falls into the second category.
If Makhmudov can effectively disengage that energy by staying calm and landing heavy shots early, he could turn the O2 Arena into a very quiet place.
Fury’s late career has been defined by that heavy, brooding style, but Makhmudov is probably the worst person in the division to try to lean on. While most heavyweights are stifled by Fury’s size, Makhmudov thrives in the phone booth.
His jabs are heavy-handed power, where even a short, six-inch hook can do damage. If Fury tries to initiate the clinch to rest or drain Makhmudov’s energy, he could find himself in a world of trouble for a few reasons:
Makhmudov is a physical tank. Unlike some of Fury’s previous opponents, who have been pushed around, the Russian has the core strength to hold his ground and keep his arms free.
Arslanbek is very comfortable landing hammerfists, short uppercuts and pounding body shots while tied up. If Fury tries to lean, he leaves his ribs and the side of his head wide open.
A painfully skinny Fury has less mass to use as a weighted blanket. If he doesn’t have the bulk to physically overpower Makhmudov, the round becomes a neutral zone where the harder punch usually wins.
Fury’s grappling helped him keep winning as his movement slowed. But if he can’t use his weight to wear down Makhmudov, he’s forced back into a long-range boxing match. With his legs looking questionable and his inactivity at an all-time high, it’s a massive ask to stay on the outside for 12 rounds against a guy now confident in his stamina.
This is a case of a veteran’s favorite trick potentially becoming his biggest liability. If Fury catches on and realizes he can’t move the man in front of him, the look on his face in round three or four will tell us all we need to know.
