If you’ve only seen the past few years at the Masters, you’d think betting on long shots to win would be a waste of money.
This has been true in recent years.
The last four winners – Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler (twice) and Jon Rahm – were all ranked third or better in the week’s world rankings. We also had Dustin Johnson dominate 2020 as world No. 1 and Tiger Woods take home the green jacket in 2019, with odds of around 14/1.
That means six of the last seven winners have been top favorites heading into Augusta.
But it wasn’t always like that. In fact, Augusta has been home to a number of surprise winners throughout its history.
From 2007 to 2011, we saw four winners split at odds of more than 100/1. Zach Johnson (125/1) won in ’07 with a short game master class. Trevor Immelman won the following year at 150/1 in one of the most shocking results in major league history. Angel Cabrera followed that up with a 125/1 win in a sudden-death playoff, and Charl Schwartzel joined the crew two years later with an incredible finish to win at 100/1.
And even in recent years, we’ve seen winners with good odds. Hideki Matsuyama was 60/1 ahead of his win in 2021. Danny Willett’s shock last-round comeback in 2016 came in at 50/1 and Patrick Reed was 40/1 for his 2018 victory.
For the Masters, I consider the long shots to start at 50/1, so let’s take a look at five players who could fit that bill and be a surprise winner of the green jacket in 2026.
These are five players I believe can absolutely contend this week.
All Odds From DraftKings Sportsbook (Win/Top 5/Top 10)
Adam Scott (+6200/+860/+365)
It wouldn’t be right not to have a veteran in the group. While Augusta tends to favor tall players in their prime, it’s also common to see some experienced players who know their way around the famous complex greens.
Adam Scott is just that. The Australian is making his 25th start at the Masters and the 2013 champion is coming off some of his best form in a long time. Scott played superbly at home in Australia to end the year and then he posted a fourth at Riviera and an 11th at Bay Hill to start his PGA Tour season strong.
The numbers look great. Scott is hitting his irons very well, ranking fourth in SG: Approach in 2026. He’s also very long, averaging 312.2 yards off the tee this year, 26th on Tour. The only thing that has slowed him down a bit is an inconsistent putt and inaccuracy off the tee. We know Augusta can be kind to erratic shots, so a good week on the greens could put Scott back in contention.
Amazingly, he has only recorded one top 10 at Augusta since winning in 2013. I think that could change this week.
Nicolai Hojgaard (+8400/+1100/+465)
Nicolai Hojgaard has been a mainstay in my power rankings this year and he will be one of my favorite long shots this week. The Dane has climbed from the top 70 in the world to 36th with consistent play this season. He has already recorded three finishes of T6 or better going back to the Phoenix Open.
In Houston, he finished second. And while Memorial Park isn’t Augusta National, the driving distance and short grass scrimmage happen. Although he missed the cut at Augusta last year, Hojgaard actually held the sole lead going into the second nine on Saturday as a debutant in 2024.
He can build on that success from ’24 and get into great form this week. Hojgaard has expressed it beautifully and hit his cuffs very well. Like Scott, foul moves tend to be his downfall, but that should be less punishing this week, as it was in Houston.
Akshay Bhatia (+6660/+900/+380)
This seems clear.
Akshay Bhatia has been one of the top players on Tour this year, winning at Bay Hill and competing at Scottsdale and Pebble Beach. He also posted solid finishes at Riviera and Sawgrass.
I’m not the biggest fan of his build coming in, which is my only gripe here. Bhatia recently traveled across the globe to play the Hero Indian Open and performed very poorly, missing the cut.
If we ignore that, however, Bhatia has been one of the most consistent players in golf in recent times. He is also a left-hander which we know is a good sign in ANGC. While he has not struggled in two attempts at Augusta, finishes of T35 and T42 suggest he has gotten the reps needed to learn this venue and has also performed well on and around the greens here.
The main thing to watch with Bhatia is his scrum. His hitting and putting have been very strong in 2026, but if there’s one thing that can bite him, it tends to be errors around the green.
Marco Money (+16000/+1900/+770)
If you’re looking for a real long shot, I think Penge is your guy.
It is hard to imagine any player at over 100/1 winning this tournament. So when I’m looking too far down the board, I’m looking for head and potential. Marco Penge is the best fit.
The obvious concern here is that Penge will be a debutant which means he’ll have to do something no one has done since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. It’s unlikely, but that’s why he’s 160/1 to win. Still, these top-five and top-10 awards look great.
Penge is one of the longest players in the world and is currently behind only McIlroy in SG: Off the Tee. He showed some versatility when he finished T4 at Valspar, a tournament that usually goes unbeaten. He was also T16 at Riviera, a course that has some crossover success with Augusta.
Jacob Bridgeman (+9400/+1175/+485)
After getting a couple of guys who can bomb the ball off the tee, I thought I’d have some balance including Jacob Bridgeman.
I will be honest. Bridgeman is not usually the type of player I target at Augusta. He’s short off the tee and not a very good scramble either. But the truth of the matter is that he is currently leading the FedEx Cup standings. Bridgeman just dominated at Riviera which, again, ties in with success at Augusta. He followed that up with a T5 at Sawgrass.
Bridgeman has yet to finish worse than T18 this year in eight starts. And each of the last three Masters winners were entering the tournament as arguably the best players on Tour in that respective season.
So while Bridgeman doesn’t necessarily fit the profile of a player you’re looking for this week, he’s been too good this year to ignore at such a high price.
Who are the favorite longshots this week? Let me know in the comments.
Top Photo Caption: Akshay Bhatia has the game to pull off a Masters upset. (GETTY IMAGES/Chris Condon)
