I’ve been on record as saying that I believe we will have a surprise Masters winner.
Over the past decade or so, most green jackets have gone to established favorites or fixtures among the game’s elite: Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson, Tiger Woods and the like.
Yes, we’ve had guys like Danny Willett (2016) asking for a green jacket. Hideki Matsuyama was considered a long (+5000) before he won in 2021.
But the category of surprise Masters winners has been easy lately. The power players have won.
I think we need this to change. My prediction is that someone will come from outside the top 10 players on the odds list to take this year’s Masters title.
Why?
As I’ll explain, some of the top players have some significant red flags heading into Augusta this year. At the same time, there are some intriguing longshot players who have been regularly competing in (and winning) PGA Tour events.
We’ll get to those dark horse candidates in another story, but I wanted to start with the players who I won’t wins next week.
These are the guys everyone will be backing because they are the big names with the best chance of winning… but I am convinced ANY of these players will be the winner.
1. Scottie Scheffler
It’s always tough to go against Scheffler given his dominant run over the last few years, but I’m thinking the shakes are a little too far going into the first major of the year.
First, Scheffler hasn’t competed since The Players Championship. It has been rare for Masters winners to take an entire month off before Augusta.
And while Scheffler had a hot start to the season, his play has been a bit off in his last two starts. Worrying about possible swing changes and negative body language are also reasons why I’m afraid to go with the best player in the world next week.
Scheffler was ranked no. 1 in Strokes Gained: Approach last season. He is number 80 in the same statistic so far this season. Is this an anomaly or a trend?
It’s also reasonable to think that it will be very difficult for any player to win three of the five Masters that Scheffler (2022 and 2024 champion) would accomplish with another win here.
2. Rory McIlroy
For starters, there hasn’t been a back-to-back Masters winner since Tiger Woods (2001-2002). Only three men have successfully defended their title.
McIlroy’s Masters triumph in 2025 was storybook – and took a toll on him emotionally. It’s reasonable to wonder if he’ll be completely shut down for this year’s tournament.
Additionally, McIlroy had a WD from Bay Hill due to a back injury and then a poor outing at The Players. His back was a concern heading into TPC Sawgrass as well.
Like Scheffler, he will go nearly a month between starts after choosing to skip the Texas events leading up to the Masters.
3. Jon Rahm
Ranked second on the prospect sheet, I’m getting a little tired of expecting Rahm to be a factor in the majors.
He hasn’t wrestled seriously since winning the 2023 Masters. That was 10 majors ago. It’s fair to wonder if the move to LIV has changed anything within Rahm. It seems like he’s lost a bit of an edge to his game.
He’s still a world-class player — ranked No. 2 on Data Golf — and he boasts an excellent course history at Augusta.
But for now, this is a “try it” situation. I cannot select him in a major until he shows that he is mentally ready for the challenge.
4. Collin Morikawa
The argument against Morikawa (+3100) is pretty clean.
He had to withdraw from The Players with a back injury and then had another WD before this week’s Valero Texas Open due to persistent spasms.
This does not inspire much confidence. Morikawa has been working on increasing his movement speed and it appears that this may be contributing to his health issues.
Morikawa also hasn’t posted a top-10 finish in his last six major appearances, which is a bit concerning, but could be overlooked without the current injury.
The back injury is a shame because Morikawa came into The Players in incredible form. He won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and had some top finishes right after that win. It looked like he might be a hot pick for Augusta.
5. Ludwig Aberg
Aberg is coming off two great starts in Florida, including when he blew a late lead at The Players on Sunday.
He also has two strong showings in as many Masters starts, including in 2024 when he finished runner-up to Scheffler.
For these reasons, Aberg will be a popular choice at +2000, currently no. 6 on the score sheet.
However, I am going the opposite way.
I find that Aberg hasn’t fully developed that killer instinct when entering a fight. I think it will come at some point, but we’re not there yet.
He played in eight matches and lost in half of them. Aberg’s ceiling is high, but his floor has been low for a player of his caliber.
He also has a clear weakness in the short game after ranking just outside the top 100 in Strokes Gained: Around the Green the previous two seasons. This is not the favorite weakness at Augusta.
I hope Aberg earns a green jacket at some point, but I think we’re a little early in his story. The Masters heavily favors veteran players, and Aberg needs a few more reps around the ANGC.
What do you think of this list? Let me know in the comments.
Top Photo Caption: Ludvig Aberg is the favorite for next week’s Masters. (GETTY IMAGES/Ben Jared)
