It’s been more than 17 months since Jon Rahm last lifted an individual trophy.
At LIV Adelaide, it looked like the streak would end, but Anthony Kim beat Rahm by eight strokes in the last round to complete one of the the best comeback stories we’ve ever seen in golf.
Rahm has played in 15 consecutive LIV events without winning, despite being the favorite in all of them.
Some people are worried, but I’m not there yet.
Rahm has been a disappointment in the majors
In his last two years in the majors, Rahm hasn’t necessarily performed bad but he was not a factor either.
The results were T45-MC-T7-T14-T8-T7-T34. In those three top-10 finishes, Rahm lost by eight, seven and five strokes. The five-shot margin at the 2025 US Open was the closest he has been and it was fueled by a superb final-round 67 that never put him in contention for a title.
Without trying to make this too much of a LIV vs. PGA Tour discussion, Rahm hasn’t claimed a major since making the move in 2024.
In 2025, he had his first winless year since 2016. In fact, he had multiple wins around the world every year except 2021, when he won his first major championship at Torrey Pines at the US Open.
I’m not ready to sound the alarm yet, but I would be if he doesn’t fight again in 2026.
When looking at the numbers, nothing has been too weak for Rahm in the majors. Aside from a poor ball-striking week at the 2024 PGA, Rahm has gained strokes on every other course. The short game has failed to generate any fire that could really be the difference between an uneventful top 10 and being close to the lead on Sunday.
Rahm’s shooting has been excellent so far in his two matches in 2026. In Riyadh, he earned a 5.44 stroke with the flat bat. In Adelaide, he earned 4.72, along with 2.64 strokes around the green.
Winning is hard
It can be hard to win. The most important part of it is putting yourself in a position to do it.
And Rahm still did quite a bit of it at LIV. In 2025, he finished second four times. He totaled seven top-fives and 12 top-10s in 13 total LIV events. And in the first two LIV events of 2026, he finished second alone in both.
Clearly, Rahm is still playing consistently strong golf. Data Golf ranks Rahm as the second best player in the world behind Scottie Scheffler.
So again, I’m not too worried yet. If Rahm were to string together poor finishes in his LIV tournaments, that would be a bigger sign of concern. Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka are examples of players who, in fact, lost a lot of form after joining LIV.
Koepka was 31st in points last year at LIV, which clearly helped signal that it was time for a change for the former world No.1.
Johnson decided to re-sign with LIV, but he has lost six of his last eight major league cuts.
Rahm’s situation doesn’t come close to the depth of their concerns. And for anyone who thinks they can put too much emphasis on winning, I highly doubt that someone with his winning pedigree has some sort of blockage preventing him from reaching the finish line.
I would have to see more scar tissue before it becomes a legitimate concern.
Analyzing Rahm’s chances in the 2026 majors
Masters (Augusta National)
Rahm hasn’t been able to do much at the Masters since his win in 2023. His title defense was very poor as he struggled to make one of the easiest cuts in golf and beat just 10 of the players who made the weekend. He struggled again last year with an opening round 75 before finishing T14.
But Rahm clearly enjoyed Augusta overall. He strung together four straight top 10s between 2018 and 2021 before donning the green jacket two years later.
He will play three straight weeks starting this week in Hong Kong and then take a significant break leading up to the Masters. If he plays well, I think he will be second favorite to win.
PGA Championship (Aronimink)
There is very little history in Aronimink. It hasn’t hosted a major championship since 1962 when Gary Player won. Rahm played it at the 2018 BMW Championship as a 23-year-old. He played well, finishing T24.
The general sense is that Aronimink will favor bombers, which certainly helps the hard-hitting Rahm.
US Open (Shinnecock Hills)
Like Aronimink, Rahm has a sample size with one start at Shinnecock Hills, also in 2018 when he missed the cut. Since then, he hasn’t missed a cut at the US Open, taking the 2021 title and adding three more top 10s.
While the US Open often favors bombing and setting up well for Rahm, Shinnecock in 2018 favored many accurate drivers. If that’s the case again, it likely won’t be Rahm’s best shot in 2026.
Open Championship (Royal Birkdale)
The Open Championship was easily Rahm’s worst major early in his career, but he’s starting to turn it around. He played Birkdale as a 22-year-old in the 2017 Open, finishing T44.
Like Shinnecock, Birkdale doesn’t favor much driving distance, but you also don’t need to hit it too straight there. It’s likely not the best fit for Rahm, but no one should be surprised if he claims.
Overall, I’m not worried about Rahm. If he goes another year without a win to show for it?
Then we can talk.
Main photo caption: Rahm blasts out of a bunker during LIV Adelaide. (GETTY IMAGES/Mark Brake)
