How rare is a bird for your handicap? (We ran the numbers)

It’s easy to remember a bird and it’s fun to follow one. If you’ve ever wondered if you’re making enough birds or if you should be making more, this might help. We dug into some data from Shooting range to see how many birdies you need to make for your handicap.

What are your true bird odds?

Here is the average number of birdies made per round by handicap.

Let’s translate that into something more tangible.

To estimate the birdie “odds”, we divide the birdies per 18-hole round. This gives us an average rate of birdies per hole over a typical round. Of course, birdie chances are not equal on every hole. Par-5s, for example, produce more birdies than long par-3s. But in a normal mix of holes, this gives us a realistic expectation.

Here’s what it looks like:

The next time you’re frustrated that you “only” made one birdie in your round… you might actually be on schedule.

The real difference in results is not the birds. They are double bogeys

Birdies are fun to talk about, but double bogeys are where scores are ruined. You’ll quickly see that the real difference between a scratch golfer and a 20 or 25 handicap comes down to the ability to control bogeys.

A 20 handicap makes about one birdie every three rounds, but they make almost seven double bogeys per round on average. Even one extra birdie in a round will not make up for all the extra doubles.

Final thoughts

Improvement in golf almost never looks like more birdies. It’s almost always about better passing, fewer penalties and more green in regulation. Birds are rare for almost all of us, so enjoy them when they occur.