For each PGA Tour event, we’ll rank the top 10 players by odds to win, based on a weighted model, shape and course fit. Along the way, we’ll highlight some of our favorite bets.
This week, the tour heads north to Orlando for the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill.
This week: The Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard
- Date: March 5-8, 2026
- Location: Orlando, Florida
- Course: Bay Hill Club & Lodge
- How to watch: NBC, Golf Channel, ESPN+, Peacock
- Bag: 20 000 000 dollars
- Defending Champion: Russell Henley
What skills does the course reward?
Bay Hill plays as a 7,400 yard par 72 with Bermuda greens and thick Bermuda. It ranks as one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour every year—and in the event of strong winds and dry conditions, as we saw in 2020 and 2022, it could play as the Tour’s toughest regular-season course.
The finish has been top notch in 13 of the last 14 years.
With narrow tree-lined fairways on a long course, golf’s elite drivers have an advantage at Bay Hill. Missing fairways will be inevitable, so playing out thick with short irons instead of long irons is a huge advantage.
But the recent course changes that opened things up have thrown a wrench into things. Accurate ball handlers have had the edge the past two years.
Unlike PGA National last week, Bay Hill is not a second course. Every tournament can be won with elite iron play, but with higher scores and the importance of good driving here, you can get away with a mediocre week with the irons. Finding the center of the green provides value here rather than hunting for pins, especially when the conditions are tough.
What I value more than anything with approaches this week is the long iron game. Bay Hill gives players more approaches from 200 yards than any other course on Tour. That makes passing from over 200 yards a key stat this week. All four par 3s, all four par 5s and several par 4s will likely require a long iron or metal this week at Bay Hill.
Bermuda’s greens at Bay Hill are fast and clean, and the winner here tends to have a really strong week with the flat club, including Kurt Kitayama, Scottie Scheffler and Russell Henley in the last three years. Every winner since 2015 has gained strokes on the green. What we’ve seen more often lately is that Bermuda’s history remains very important on Florida courses.
Four 5s are the real scoring opportunities at Bay Hill. All of them are accessible to taller players and allow eagle chances throughout the round. We’ve seen some tougher par-5 golf courses lately, but Bay Hill is a place where you really want to get your birdies on those four holes and survive for the rest of the round.
How the model works
The weighted pattern this week over the last 24 rounds is 25% SG: Off Tee, 15% SG: Approach, 10% Greens in Fix, 10% SG: Putting (Bermuda), 10% SG: Par 5, 10% Proximity: 200+ yards, and 10% SG: 10% Fast (Difficult).
Power ranking
(DraftKings Odds-Winning/Top 5/Top 10 with favorite choices in bold)
10. Chris Gotterup (+4200+680, +300)
Model order: 11th
You have to imagine that one of the best drivers on the planet must enjoy Bay Hill. Gotterup has already won twice this year and should have a good chance to compete again as a rookie at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The shot must be warmed up. Ranked first in SG: OTT.
9. Pierceson Coody (+5800, +880, +380)
Model order: 19th
Coody actually played the API when he was on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023, and he impressed with a T14 fueled by a third-round 66. He has been a hitting machine with the ball this year and has already posted six top-20 finishes in seven starts. Ranks second in GIR%.
8. Nicolai Hojgaard (+6600+980, +420)
Model order: 13th
I don’t think Nicolai is getting enough respect for his form and continues to be overlooked. He has now gone T3-T6 in his last two starts and has climbed 63 places in the world rankings since heading to the UK last summer with consistent results. Ranked 4th in SG: APP.
7. Collin Morikawa (+3100, +510, +230)
Model order: 10th
Morikawa looked like a winner last year before Henley took over late on Sunday. With the accuracy that is now valued more at Bay Hill, it fits much better around Bay Hill. The form clearly looks great as long as the short game continues to cooperate. Ranks 11th in GIR%.
6. Cameron Young (+3200, +540+245)
Model order: 6th
After a disappointing start to the year, Young finally found some form at Riviera with a T7. Bay Hill looks like a good fit for him, with T13 and T10 finishes in his first two starts before struggling the last two years. The driver has been a bit bad, which will be his key this week. Ranked 7th in SG:P.
5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+2600, +450, +205)
Model order: 5th
Could Fitzpatrick finally land the player now that he is moving to the Bermuda Greens? He couldn’t do anything to drop West Coast despite hitting the ball beautifully. It was the only thing that prevented him from claiming a victory. He loved Bay Hill. Ranked 7th in SG: APP.
4. Tommy Fleetwood (+1750, +315+148)
Model order: 4th
It’s been a usual start to 2026 for Fleetwood as he’s backed up the run to 2025 and shown that he is truly one of the game’s elite players. Fleetwood tends to like Bermuda greens and he has played Bay Hill nine times now, with a T3 in 2019 leading the way. Ranked 4th in SG: P (Fast).
3. Si Woo Kim (+3200+510, +225)
Model order: 3st
Kim was extremely hot to start the year before cooling off a bit in his last two events. Now, after finally getting a week off, Kim should be well positioned to get things going again in Florida. He was terrible at Bay Hill early in his career, but his results have steadily improved recently. Ranked first in SG: APP.
2. Rory McIlroy (+960, +198-104)
Model order: 2n.d
It’s been eight years since McIlroy first won at Bay Hill and it looked like he could bring home many more trophies here. It hasn’t happened, but this week feels like a great chance for him to wear a second redshirt. The form looks great, but he will need to work on his shooting. Ranks 3rd in SG: Par 5.
1. Scottie Scheffler (+300, -144-300)
Model order: 1str
Scheffler’s T11 finish here last year was his worst at Bay Hill since finishing T15 as a rookie in 2020. He’ll be looking for a third red jacket after winning in ’22 and ’24. Scheffler has had strong results this year, but he needs to fix a trend of disastrous opening rounds. Ranked first in GIR%.
Main photo caption: Arnold Palmer statue at Bay Hill. (GETTY IMAGES/Russell Lansford)
